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The D.C. area has flirted with drought since the spring and, after an unusually dry October and early November, is on the brink of it again.
The latest federal drought monitor shows abnormally dry conditions — the stage before drought — surging back into the southern half of the D.C. area, including parts of the District itself. Moderate and severe drought conditions are draped across the Interstate 81 corridor in western Virginia and west central Maryland and have expanded recently.
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An unusually dry October — the 10th-driest on record in Washington — has brought back drought concerns after August and September rains briefly quashed them. October only offered half-an-inch to an inch of rain across the region, which was about three inches below average.
About 20 to 30 inches of rain have fallen this year across the region, which is about 10 to 15 inches below normal. The biggest deficits are west of Washington.
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There’s little sign of meaningful relief in the short-term. A little rain is possible over the next 10 days but nothing particularly significant.
A dry fall and calendar year
October’s rainfall was about 2 to 3 inches below average across the region and ranked among the top 5 to 10 driest from eastern Pennsylvania through the western Carolinas, according to data compiled by the Southeast Regional Climate Center.
This year is the 14th driest on record so far in Washington, while Dulles and Martinsburg are seeing their 4th and 3rd driest years, respectively. Rainfall totals and departures from average to date are shown for several locations below:
Washington: 26.74 inches, or 9.29 inches below average Dulles: 26.54 inches, or 10.82 inches below average Baltimore: 32.3 inches, or 6.42 inches below average Martinsburg: 21.36 inches, or 12.32 inches below average Hagerstown: 20.56 inches, or 17.05 inches below average
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Washington has only posted above average rainfall in April, July and August so far this year. September’s rainfall total was near average, in part because of a dousing from the remnants of Hurricane Opheli. August and September’s combined rainfall briefly kept drought conditions in check before the very dry October.
Dry weather in Mid-Atlantic not usual as El Ni？o develops
El Ni？o, the climate pattern defined by warmer-than-normal waters in the tropical Pacific, is known for increasing precipitation — including snow — in the Mid-Atlantic region in winter. But during moderate to strong El Ni？os — like this year’s — fall months have tended to be dry.
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This fall has been particularly dry for a moderate to strong El Ni？o. If this El Ni？o — considered moderate — becomes strong, the October precipitation would rank as the lowest on record for a strong El Ni？o dating to 1950.
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El Ni？os don’t typically begin to increase precipitation in the Mid-Atlantic until November or December.
Near-term rain prospects are dim
Our forecast for November gently leans toward drier-than-normal conditions persisting.
The pattern over the next week does not appear to be one to produce major rainstorms. There is a chance of a ground-wetting rain as soon as late this week, but nothing significant.
Computer model projections show warmer and drier than normal conditions next week, too. They do show some potential for increasing precipitation around the week of Thanksgiving, but confidence is low that far into the future.
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