STOCK market performance in 2022 will mainly hinge on sustained economic recovery and how well this pans out.
With Covid-19 still remaining a concern going into the new year, expectations are that recovery, which has been uneven this year, may continue to result in downside risk for equities.
Throw in a possible general election domestically, and the likelihood of the Federal Reserve tightening monetary policy earlier than expected globally, one word comes to mind – volatility.
In 2022, companies in Malaysia will also have to take on the new tax that will be imposed on them, namely the Cukai Makmur or Prosperity Tax, which is a one-off tax on firms that earn more than RM100mil in profit.
Although this is a one-off, observers have questioned whether this kind of tax could be imposed again in the near future, suggesting that the possibility exists, and companies could see their earnings growth plans derailed once again in the coming years.
Still, there are several positives.
For one, the FBM KLCI is on track to finishing this year as the worst-performing stock market benchmark in the whole of Asean.It is down by close to 8%, so far.
The oil and gas industry, which has performed relatively well on the whole for this year coming out of a bad 2020, could also continue to excite investors in 2022.
Largely range-bound for the first part of the year, market performance was fraught with fresh uncertainties coming into the second half, no thanks to renewed lockdowns and political interferences.
Since the beginning of 2021, retailers have been the only net buyers of local shares, buying to the tune of RM12.09bil, according to MIDF Amanah data.
Meanwhile, local institutions and foreign investors have been net sellers, dumping shares worth RM9.69bil and RM2.40bil, respectively, since January, it said.
And so, if the saying, “you can only go up from here” is anything near the truth, then things may start to look up for the local market next year.
As the world learns to live with Covid-19, there will be the continuation of the gradual re-opening of all global economic sectors and country borders to look forward to.
While this can be seen as a double-edged sword, the key is in the right timing, pace and strategy of implementation.
Locally, several sectors stand out as being more interesting than the rest in the new year.
If consumer sentiment improves next year, one of the sectors that stand to benefit the most is the automotive sector.
This is backed by the sales and services tax holiday, which will go on until the first half of next year, coupled with the many new car models that are scheduled to be rolled out.
The various incentives for electric vehicle (EV) purchases announced under Budget 2022 will also help buoy optimism on the sector.
Other sectors such as gaming and consumer, which covers hotels, restaurants and leisure activities, should also do better next year, should there be no more lockdowns to curtail the physical movements of individuals.
Such incentives include full exemptions on import and excise duties and sales tax, as well as road tax.
There will also be an income tax relief of up to RM2,500 for those who buy EVs, as well as relief on the installation and leasing of EV charging facilities.
Meanwhile, the oil and gas industry, which has performed relatively well on the whole for this year coming out of a bad 2020, could also continue to excite investors in 2022.
Notably, some observers think there is more upside to crude oil price amid steady consumption for the commodity.
Again, demand could be affected if the new Covid-19 variant, the Omicron, is found to have a greater impact than previously expected on economies.
Other sectors such as gaming and consumer, which covers hotels, restaurants and leisure activities, should also do better next year, should there be no more lockdowns to curtail the physical movements of individuals.