Net migration could fall to the lowest level in 5 years, the Government's immigration tsar says (Image: Getty)
Net migration could fall to 200,000 in the next “year or so”, the Government’s migration tsar has revealed.
Professor Brian Bell, Chairman of the Migration Advisory Committee, offered Sir Keir Starmer a glimmer of good news as he struggles to retain control of Britain’s borders by claiming net migration could drop below pre-Brexit levels.
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But Professor Bell warned that care companies, restaurants, shops and hotels could all struggle to recruit enough workers over the coming years.
He said: “There was a very big fall in net migration.
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Yvette Cooper is under intense pressure to slash net migration (Image: Getty)
“I think the expectation is that this fall will continue.
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“If anything, we expect it to overshoot and go lower than the OBR are predicting in their forecasts, falling a bit and then recovering.
“I think it is possible it will get down to the 200,000 mark. In the median term, it will revert to the 300,000 mark.
“I think we might well see figures of 200,000 in the next year or so. If you think about it, we dropped by 400,000 in the last year.”
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The number of available jobs fell by 63,000 between March and May, figures from the ONS show.
Unemployment in the UK rose in April to the highest level in almost four years.
Liz McKeown, the ONS director of economic statistics, said that “our vacancies survey suggests some firms may be holding back from recruiting new workers or replacing people when they move on”.
Professor Bell added: “Work visas have fallen very heavily, which is part of the reason why net migration has fallen so much. We won’t see a big bounce back in visas for work. Most forecasts don’t predict strong growth in the labour market for the next year or two”.
Former Home Secretary James Cleverly banned overseas care workers and foreign students from bringing their family members with them to the UK as part of a series of measures to slash record high levels of net migration.
He also increased the salary threshold for skilled workers to ￡38,700.
The migration expert said there could be some problems filling vacancies in social care from abroad.
He said: “On social care, you will see some restrictions [on recruiting from abroad]. It’s important to remember that the government’s policy is that from the as soon as the immigration changes are made legislatively, care companies will not be allowed to bring in new workers from abroad on the [health and care worker] visa, but they will be able to recruit people already in the UK”.
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But Home Secretary Yvette Cooper paused a planned increase in the salary threshold on those hoping to bring their family members to the UK.
This means someone will only need to earn ￡28,000 to bring their families to the UK.
Home Secretary Yvette Cooper paused a planned increase in the salary threshold, to ￡38,700, for arrivals on the Family Visa route, prompting fears it will lead to an increase in net migration.
Linking this salary requirement to that of the Skilled Worker Visa, also ￡38,700, could breach European human rights laws, Professor Bell warned.
He added: "I think it is really important that this is a real trade-off.
"There is a cost to the UK economy and UK taxpayers of having this route, and we should just be honest about that and say there is a trade-off.
"But similarly, on the other side, people who say 'we should set it at very high numbers to make sure that we don't lose any money' ignore the massive impact that has on families and the destruction of some relationships and the harm it causes to children.
"So I think that's where the Home Secretary has to step in and make that choice."
Among the review's recommendations published on Tuesday, it warned against raising the minimum income threshold for family visas to the same level for skilled workers as it is most likely to conflict with human rights law.”
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The report instead suggested a criteria of ￡23,000 to ￡25,000 to ensure families can support themselves, but not necessarily require them to earn a salary above minimum wage.
But the committee's report said: "Given the family route that we are reviewing has a completely different objective and purpose to the work route, we do not understand the rationale for the threshold being set using this method.
"We do not recommend the approach based on the skilled worker salary threshold as it is unrelated to the family route and is the most likely to conflict with international law and obligations (e.g. Article 8)."