Boris Johnson’s decision to drop mandatory face-masks and social distancing from 19 July in England could condemn thousands of young Britons to years of debilitating sickness with long Covid, those who study the illness have warned.
Experts told The Independent that as many as 10,000 people a day could be struck down by the condition over the coming weeks, with around 20 per cent of sufferers remaining unable to work, study or carry out normal daily activities for a year or more.
Long-Covid campaigners wrote to health secretary Sajid Javid urging him to reconsider the lifting of restrictions such as the requirement for masks on public transport and in shops.
They said that people with the condition had become “an afterthought” in the government’s response to the pandemic, while the chair of the all-party parliamentary group (APPG) on coronavirus described sufferers as the “collateral damage” of Mr Johnson’s reopening strategy.
And there were concerns over the impact on the economy, with long Covid disproportionately hitting younger age groups – people in their 20s and 30s – who form the backbone of industries such as hospitality and retail, which are hoping to rebuild after months of restrictions and closures.
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One survey of 1,000 small and medium-sized businesses, conducted by insurance firm Unum, found that 35 per cent reported having at least one member of staff off work because of the condition.
Chief medical officer Chris Whitty said he expected “a significant amount more long Covid” in the period after 19 July, particularly among younger people who have not been fully vaccinated. And he warned that it was not yet proven whether vaccines provide protection against the condition, characterised by extreme fatigue, “brain fog”, and physical problems such as muscle weakness.
Prof Whitty said the challenge from long Covid “is not going to be trivial”, and that the UK must go “hell for leather” to drive down infection rates and complete the vaccination programme in an effort to limit the number of people who develop the condition.
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UK news in pictures 29 June 2021 A boy kicks a soccer ball in front of the balconies and landings adorned with predominantly England flags at the Kirby housing estate in London
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UK news in pictures 28 June 2021 Emergency services attend a fire nearby the Elephant & Castle Rail Station in London
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UK news in pictures 26 June 2021 A pair of marchers in a Trans Pride rally share a smile in Soho
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UK news in pictures 25 June 2021 Tim Duckworth during the Long Jump in the decathlon during day one of the Muller British Athletics Championships at Manchester Regional Arena
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UK news in pictures 24 June 2021 A member of staff poses with the work 'The Death of Cash' by XCopy at the 'CryptOGs: The Pioneers of NFT Art' auction at Bonhams auction house in London
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UK news in pictures 23 June 2021 Bank of England Chief Cashier Sarah John displays the new 50-pound banknote at Daunt Books in London
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UK news in pictures 22 June 2021 Actor Isaac Hampstead Wright sits on the newly unveiled Game of Throne's "Iron Throne" statue, in Leicester Square, in London, Tuesday, June 22, 2021. The statue is the tenth to join the trail and commemorates 10 years since the TV show first aired, as well as in anticipation for HBO's release of House of the Dragon set to be released in 2022
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UK news in pictures 21 June 2021 Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon receives her second dose of the Oxford/AstraZeneca Covid-19 vaccine
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UK news in pictures 20 June 2021 Joyce Paton, from Peterhead, on one of the remaining snow patches on Meall a’Bhuiridh in Glencoe during the Midsummer Ski. The event, organised by the Glencoe Mountain Resort, is held every year on the weekend closest to the Summer Solstice
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UK news in pictures 19 June 2021 England appeal LBW during day four of their Women’s International Test match against India at the Bristol County Ground
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UK news in pictures 18 June 2021 Scotland fans let off flares in Leicester Square after Scotland's Euro 2020 match against England ended in a 0-0 draw
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UK news in pictures 17 June 2021 Members of the Tootsie Rollers jazz band pose on the third day of the Royal Ascot horse racing meet
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UK news in pictures 16 June 2021 A woman and child examine life-size sculptures of a herd of Asian elephants set up by the Elephant Family and The Real Elephant Collective to help educate the public on the elephants and the ways in which humans can better protect the planets biodiversity, in Green Park, central London
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UK news in pictures 14 June 2021 Scotland's David Marshall in the net after Czech Republic's Patrik Schick scored their second goal at Hampden Park
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UK news in pictures 12 June 2021 Oxfam campaigners wearing costumes depicting G7 leaders pose for photographers on Swanpool Beach near Falmouth, Cornwall
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UK news in pictures 10 June 2021 A woman walks her dogs as the incoming tide begins to wash away the heads of G7 leaders drawn in the sand by activists on the beach at Newquay, Cornwall
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UK news in pictures 8 June 2021
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UK news in pictures 7 June 2021 A pedestrian wearing a face covering walks over Westminster Bridge near the Houses of Parliament in central London
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UK news in pictures 6 June 2021 Isobel Salamon, founder of the Edinburgh Cinema Club, poses alongside the Leith Trainspotting murals in Quality Yard, Leith, Edinburgh, for the programme launch of the Cinescapes Festival which starts on July 4 with a Trainspotting 1 and 2 double bill
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UK news in pictures 5 June 2021 A long exposure photograph captures the rotation of the earth as the stars blur into circles over Knowlton church ruins in Dorset
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UK news in pictures 3 June 2021 Members of the Household Cavalry during the Major General's annual inspection of the Household Cavalry Mounted Regiment in Hyde Park, London
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UK news in pictures 2 June 2021 Hannah Vitos of the Blenheim Art Foundation, poses for a photograph next to artist Ai Weiwei's Gilded Cage (2017) sculpture in the grounds of Blenheim Palace in Woodstock, Britain
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UK news in pictures 1 June 2021 People swim in the Sky Pool, a transparent swimming pool bridge across two exclusive residential blocks standing next to the US Embassy in Nine Elms, in London, Tuesday, June 1, 2021
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UK news in pictures 31 May 2021 People enjoy the hot weather at Brighton beach
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UK news in pictures 30 May 2021 People venture into the sea as they enjoy themselves during a hot day on Brighton Beach
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UK news in pictures 29 May 2021 Swimmers at the Stonehaven Open Air Pool in Aberdeenshire, which reopens after lockdown restrictions were eased
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UK news in pictures 28 May 2021 Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson gestures as he meets Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban at Downing Street in London
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UK news in pictures 24 May 2021 Dark rain clouds above an oast house at Bewl Water reservoir near Lamberhurst in Kent during one of the rainiest Mays on record, with the UK seeing 131 per cent of the usual month’s rainfall already
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UK news in pictures 23 May 2021 The Premier League trophy with the Manchester City club colour ribbons on, at Etihad Stadium, prior to the last Premier League match of the season. City will finally pick up the trophy after they won the league on 11 May
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UK news in pictures 20 May 2021 Devon And Cornwall Police Demonstrate Their Skills For Policing The G7 Summit
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UK news in pictures 18 May 2021 An employee stands before a costume for the Queen of Hearts by Bob Crowley on display at the Alice: Curiouser and Curiouser exhibition at the Victoria and Albert Museum in London
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UK news in pictures 17 May 2021 Passengers prepare to board an easyJet flight to Faro, Portugal, at Gatwick Airport after the ban on international leisure travel for people in England was lifted following the further easing of lockdown restrictions in England
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Official figures show that an estimated 2 million people have already experienced long Covid in the UK, with 385,000 – including TV presenter Kate Garraway’s husband Derek Draper – suffering for 12 months or more. Of these, only 9 per cent, or 35,000, were hospitalised when they were first infected with Covid.
Mr Javid warned MPs that the UK would enter “uncharted territory” when restrictions were lifted, with the potential for infections caused by the virulent Delta variant of coronavirus to soar to 100,000 a day from the current level of 28,773. And Imperial College London professor Neil Ferguson said the daily figure could hit 200,000.
While vaccines have brought fatality rates down from around one in every 100 infections to one in 1,000, Exeter University healthcare expert Dr David Strain said there was so far no evidence of a decline in the 10-17 per cent of coronavirus cases estimated to develop into severe long Covid.
Dr Strain, who speaks on Covid for the British Medical Association, told The Independent: “Around two-thirds of those developing long Covid say that their ability to carry out normal daily activities is affected for 12 weeks or more, and many of them will go on to have symptoms for 12 months or more.
“If Covid cases increase exponentially as restrictions are removed, the best-case scenario is that we will have something like 3,000 people a day becoming incapable of working for three months or longer. In the worst case, that could be 10,000 a day or more.”
Long Covid could be “the sting in the tail” of the pandemic, with the decision to drop restrictions risking thousands more people suffering for years to come, said Dr Strain.
“One of the real worries is that with chronic fatigue syndrome or ME, we see people left with hugely debilitating symptoms for many years,” he said. “We don’t know for certain if long Covid will behave in the same way, but all the markers suggest it is likely that those who haven’t got better after 12 months may not be getting better for years or decades.”
Professor Christina Pagel, of University College London, told The Independent: “Going ahead with 19 July in this way is a pretty crazy thing to do when cases are so high and rising. They seem to be saying we are trying to infect people in the summer to give us a bit more immunity in the winter. It doesn’t make much sense to me.”
Meanwhile the Royal College of Occupational Therapists warned that staff treating long-Covid sufferers are “at breaking point” from the additional workload.
With waits as long as 100 days for assistance, and the availability of treatment across the UK being a postcode lottery, spokesperson Lauren Walker said that a ￡100m one-off boost to funding from government is unlikely to be enough to relieve pressure on rehabilitation services.
“There were gaps in resources for rehabilitation before the pandemic came along,” she said. “The ￡100m is very welcome, but the government and the NHS need to pay very close attention to whether or not that is actually enough, because staff are at breaking point and burnt out from the initial waves of the pandemic. To then say you are going to have thousands more needing support, without more funding to support that, is really concerning for our service.”
In a letter to Mr Javid, advocacy group LongCovidSOS said the decision to allow the virus to rip through communities will condemn “thousands of predominantly young, active people … to prolonged ill-health and disability every day” and have “serious implications” for the health service, which must also contend with a backlog of millions of patients with non-Covid health issues.
LongCovidSOS acknowledged that there “may not be a perfect time to lift all restrictions”, but added: “The time is certainly not now.”
The group said: “As well as putting considerable pressure on the NHS, [victims’] reduced capacity to work will further contribute to the impact long Covid is already having on society and the economy, through reduced output and tax revenues, and increased sick pay and benefits claims.
“Long Covid has not only been ignored in policy-making decisions, and barely mentioned in the roadmap out of lockdown – it has been almost completely absent from the government’s public messaging. We have been an afterthought in the government’s response.”
Liberal Democrat MP Layla Moran, the chair of the APPG on coronavirus, told The Independent: “There are huge numbers of people who are now being affected by this and it sounds like the government is just not going to address it. They are going to be the collateral damage of the government’s approach.”
As well as measures to drive down Covid infections, such as mandatory face-masks and better ventilation, the APPG is calling for regular publication of data on long Covid, sustained investment in clinics and rehabilitation services, and ongoing support for patients who are no longer able to work.
Labour health spokesperson Jonathan Ashworth said: “Allowing infections to rise as high as 100,000 as an inherent part of government policy risks leaving thousands with serious chronic health problems. We all want to see the economy open up, but we should maintain mitigating precautions such as mask-wearing for now, enforced ventilation standards and enhanced sick pay, to drive down infections while doing all we can to drive up vaccination rates in areas where take-up remains low.”
A Department of Health and Social Care spokesperson said: “The government rapidly provided specialist care for acutely ill Covid-19 patients at the start of the pandemic and we’ve matched that speed and scale in our support for people with long Covid.
“To help people suffering the debilitating long-term effects of this virus, we have opened more than 80 long-Covid assessment services, and in June NHS England published a ￡100m plan, including ￡30m to help GPs improve diagnosis and care for patients with long Covid.
“At the same time we are backing our exceptional scientists, with over ￡50m for research to better understand the long-term effects, to ensure the right help and treatments are available.”