On Thursday, a New York jury found Donald Trump guilty of all 34 charges in a scheme to falsify business records and illegally influence the 2016 election, making him the first U.S. president to be convicted of a crime. But the real trial comes in November, at the ballot box, and it is unclear how Trump’s felony convictions will affect the vote. We can gather some clues, however, from research on how voters see their leaders and make political choices.
One major factor is character assessment. Political scientists have found that, in deciding on a candidate’s suitability for office, voters take into account, in the first place, their “warmth," that is, whether they seem to empathize with them and operate with moral integrity. Voters also care about competence—a candidate’s knowledge, intelligence and overall effectiveness as a leader.
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