KUALA LUMPUR: Moody’s Analytics is expecting global real gross domestic product (GDP) to rebound 5.7% in 2021, following the historic 3.6% contraction in 2020.

       It said the relatively strong outlook is based on the passage of the new fiscal stimulus in the United States, a firming revival in Europe, and material improvement in the global vaccination momentum.

       “However, global recovery will continue to be uneven across regions and the dual-track recovery will persist until the new resurgences are brought under control and the global vaccine distribution is scaled up,” Moody’s Analytics said in its Global Outlook: Resurgence Risks to Recovery report released yesterday.

       It said the United States is expected to lead the gains with a strong 6.4% rebound in 2021, followed by Asia with a 6.1% expansion, anchored by China’s stabilising growth and India’s turnaround in the post-restrictions phase.

       Conversely, African economies are likely to see slower growth at 4.3%, following the record 3% decline in 2020.

       The research firm also noted that the ongoing lockdowns worldwide underscore the fragility of recovery and the varied challenges in getting economies on a sustained recovery path.

       “In severely impacted countries, such as Malaysia and the Philippines, restrictions have lacked effectiveness in containing outbreaks, thereby mandating an extension of inhibiting curbs.

       “While others, including Indonesia, have adopted a less conservative approach, there is a real risk that the economic costs of relaxing restrictions too soon may significantly outweigh the short-term gains from reopenings,” it said.

       Moody’s Analytics also opined that geopolitical risks would assume an important role in the post-Covid-19 recovery phase. — Bernama