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John Curtice explains 'crucial' general election exit poll detail that not everyone knows
2024-07-05 00:00:00.0     每日快报-政治     原网页

       

       Sir Keir Starmer looks to be taking the Labour Party into government after a historic victory over the Conservatives, if the 10pm exit poll proves to be correct (Image: Mirror)

       The exit poll for the 2024 general election has been released and, if accurate, it predicts a devastating blow for the Conservative Party across vast areas of the UK, as well as a landslide victory for the Labour Party, which could secure a whopping 410 seats. However, as always with election data, the true picture of what has changed for millions of voters is far more complex.

       Leading pollster John Curtice has commenced his all-night analysis of the election results as they roll in for the BBC, scrutinising the data from the exit poll, which was conducted by broadcasters and unveiled as polls closed at 10pm. While it has been a transformative night for Labour, potentially gaining 209 MPs in one night, the seasoned poll expert has suggested that the Conservatives could face their worst result in history.

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       Clarifying the most "crucial" aspect to understand about the exit poll, Sir John Curtice stated: "This seat forecast is not just simply a consequence of the national shares of the vote that we expect the parties to gain, but rather how they are distributed geographically and how that has moved decisively against the Conservatives.

       "Support for the Conservatives is falling much more heavily in places where they are trying to defend the seat, than it is in seats that Labour already hold, but why is that happening? It's not because Labour are doing spectacularly better in Conservative-held seats, it is because Reform are.

       "Much of the damage to the Conservatives is being done by Reform, even if it is the Labour Party that proves to be the beneficiary."

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       The exit poll shows a huge majority for the Labour Party, as well as a breakthrough for Nigel Farage's Reform (Image: Press Association Images)

       This election shocker could signal a seismic demographic change for Labour voters, with their success booming particularly in mortgage-heavy constituencies that were previously solid Tory ground. Curtice remarked this might be "a reflection perhaps of the damage caused by former prime minister Liz Truss's 'fiscal event'."

       Professor Curtice also highlighted the effective strategy of the Liberal Democrats, who despite a lower overall vote share than Reform are on track to welcome 52 MPs, thanks to targeted efforts in specific constituencies - outshining Reform's expected 13-seat haul after their crushing impact on the Conservative vote.

       However, the pollster chimed in with a word of caution regarding predictions about these smaller parties, underscoring that many battles for seats hinge on razor-thin margins. While exit polls show Farage's Reform poised for a significant number of MPs, their final tally might shrink given their "20 to 30 per cent chance" in multiple races.

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       But as always, nothing beats the only definitive answer given by millions of Brits on voting day. Or, as Sir John Curtice put it: "It's only the ballot boxes that tell us the truth."

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       The exit poll, released at 10pm, forecasts the following seat totals for the major parties:

       Conservatives: 131 Labour: 410 Liberal Democrats: 61 SNP: 10 Reform UK: 13 Plaid Cymru: 4 Greens: 2

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