The second day of the 11th meeting of the Valdai International Discussion Club ended with a discussion on one of the most dramatic issues on the contemporary agenda: the crisis in Ukraine.

       Following the presentation of a report entitled “The Crisis in Ukraine: Root Causes and Scenarios for the Future,” participants, including the report’s authors, shared views on the causes of the conflict and possible ways to settle it.

       It should be said that the discussion of this painful issue proceeded in a calm and constructive atmosphere.

       All participants agreed that the conflict did not unravel overnight but is rooted in social and economic developments in Ukraine over the past 20 years and historical differences between the ethnic and language groups living in the country.

       The socioeconomic situation in Ukraine has not been positive since the Soviet Union’s dissolution in 1991. New generations grew up amid extremely difficult conditions, which influenced the mentality of politically active young people both in western and eastern Ukraine. The only difference is that some of them looked for solutions to their problems in Europe, and others in Russia. Moreover, these two groups were roughly equal at the beginning of the Maidan protests. This provided the basis for increased social instability.

       The ongoing conflict has pushed Ukraine to the brink of economic catastrophe and is fraught with serious consequences for Ukraine, Russia and Europe. This is why Russia and Europe should be equally interested in settling this crisis as soon as possible, but unfortunately, they differ on ways to do this. They accept the idea of Ukraine’s non-aligned status and federalization, but cannot agree on which path Ukraine should follow: association with the EU or accession to EurAsEC.

       The situation is further complicated by Washington’s position. Most participants in the Valdai Club meeting agree that the United States could play the key part in settling the conflict, but the conflict does not directly affect its vital interests and hence finding a solution is not a priority issue for Washington. Next, the United States would like Ukraine to develop special relations with NATO, which does not suit Russia or Europe.

       Fear and confusion have swept eastern Ukraine, where people’s strongest desire is for the shooting to stop. In this situation, forgetting about their interests and ceding control over their territory to Kiev would bring peace. But this would also undermine the prestige of the Donetsk and Lugansk republics’ authorities. On the other hand, Russia’s support and socioeconomic assistance could change the situation very quickly. This would add legitimacy to the authorities in the Donetsk and Lugansk republics and serve as an example for the other eastern regions, if they see that life in the regions that opted for cooperation with Russia has greatly improved.

       The discussion participants proposed several scenarios for Ukraine, the most probable of which is leaving the conflict in limbo. This would not bring about a lasting solution, but at least this would stop the bloodshed. Experts also did not rule out the possibility of Ukraine’s disintegration, the maintenance of the status quo, Ukraine’s democratic development and integration with the EU, a new gas war and even Ukraine’s accession to EurAsEC.

       Another focus of the discussion was Crimea’s reunification with Russia. One of the participants provided an interesting argument: based on the fact that Crimea was part of Ukraine in 1991, its reunification with Russia can be assessed as a violation of Ukraine’s territorial integrity. On the other hand, Ukraine was a sovereign state at the time the UN was established and one of its founding nations, and Crimea was not part of Ukraine at that time.

       Some Western experts pointed out that Russia did not raise the issue of Crimea in the 20-odd years since Ukraine became independent, which raises eyebrows. And why didn’t it worry about the life of Russian speakers in Ukraine before?

       Views expressed are of individual Members and Contributors, rather than the Club's, unless explicitly stated otherwise.