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       There has been a spate of articles in recent days musing about former United Nations ambassador Nikki Haley’s improved position in the 2024 Republican presidential nominating contest. Her endorsement by Americans for Prosperity Action last week marked a significant bet on her candidacy by a significant player; her strong performances in the first three debates prompted its own murmuring among observers.

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       One obvious reason for this discussion is that the 2024 Republican nomination has not yet been settled. No votes have been cast. A more obvious reason is that the contest has been defined from the outset through two lenses: the reemergence of former president Donald Trump and the possibility of consolidating support against him. Some of the recent coverage has centered on the idea that Haley might be the best candidate to serve as a non-Trump option for Republican voters.

       Another reason for the focus on Haley, certainly, is that it is more interesting to talk about a contested nominating fight than an uncontested one. By positing that Haley might surge past Trump, there’s something to talk about and a justification for the resources still being poured into covering and analyzing the contest. And who knows! We can’t say she won’t overtake Trump, so it’s only fair to consider how that might work.

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       All of this depends on our setting aside an obvious reality, though: Haley’s recent rise has her barely cracking double digits nationally — and she faces a much steeper climb than any challenger in the history of modern presidential primaries.

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       Consider the nominating contests since 1980. We can use the Iowa caucuses, traditionally the first time for voters to weigh in, as a benchmark. At any given point in the 90 days before and after the caucuses, there’s been a leading candidate and a trailing candidate, with the leading candidates during those 180-day periods most commonly being the candidates who went on to win the nomination.

       We can visualize the margins (that is, the leads) in those contests over time by showing the gap between the leading and trailing candidates. The taller the bars on the charts below, the bigger the margin between first and second. Dark-colored bars indicate that the eventual nominee was in the lead; light-colored bars indicate that the eventual nominee was trailing.

       What you want to look for is those nominating contests when the leader flipped after Iowa or in which the leading candidate’s lead narrowed. Those contests are highlighted with gray boxes.

       You’ll notice that there are two usual patterns: an eventual nominee who had and retained a wide lead, or an eventual nominee who was running close to competitors into early voting. Sometimes big leads narrowed, like in the 1996 Republican and 2016 Democratic contests. Sometimes the primary was a brawl into and past Iowa, as was the 2012 Republican contest.

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       Now compare those historical contests with the margin between Trump and Haley.

       Those bars are tall — meaning the margin is large — and they sit low on the chart, meaning that Haley’s support is relatively low. In 538′s polling average, which is the data undergirding all of these charts, Haley’s only just broken double digits. Yes, she’s improving, but not very much.

       What the chart looks like, really, is the 2000 Republican contest, which George W. Bush won relatively easily. By the same point of that contest, though, Bush’s lead was smaller than Trump’s is now. The race narrowed after Bush stumbled in New Hampshire, but the narrowing was short-lived.

       But, of course, that chart of the 2024 contest isn’t comparable to the 2000 one … because Haley isn’t in second place! That honor goes to Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who was once himself identified as the non-Trump alternative. His failure to gain ground on Trump — or more accurately, the steady erosion of his position relative to Trump — is why people are turning to Haley.

       If we compare Trump with DeSantis, the picture isn’t much better.

       We’ve seen two recent contests in which front-running candidates faced serious challenges in primary contests. Both involved Hillary Clinton as the front-runner: the 2008 primary that she lost and the 2016 nomination she won.

       In each case, though, her leads at this point in the cycle were far narrower than Trump’s is now. In 2016, the race had closed significantly over the previous month. This is not the pattern we see in the 2024 Republican race.

       A political consultant once pointed out to me that there is only one resource in any campaign that has a finite limit: time. Haley is doing better than she was, yes, and is seeing new attention paid to her bid. She also is trailing by a wider margin at this point relative to the Iowa caucuses than any of the other challengers in contested primaries since 1980.

       We are duty-bound to note that the primary is not over and that anyone, Haley included, could emerge as the 2024 Republican nominee. But the end of the primary is drawing nearer every day and “trailing by a historically large margin” is an awfully tall hill to climb.

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