Nigel Farage Nigel Farage's party could win the most seats - but not enough for government. (Image: Getty)
Nigel Farage's Reform UKcould get the most seats if an election took place this year, an in-depth poll has revealed. The first multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) poll since the last general election showed combined support for the Conservatives and Labour collapsing to less than half of the national vote.
It is not a forecast but an estimate by YouGov of what could happen. The next election is not set to happen until 2029. YouGov said: "Reform's meteoric rise to becoming comfortably the largest party in a hung parliament is driven by impressive performances right across the country - including in Scotland."
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A second opinion poll released hours ago also put Mr Farage in poll position to become the UK's next Prime Minister.
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Reform UK would win 271 seats - the most of any party - if a general election were to happen tomorrow.
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Labour would secure just 178 seats, less than half of the 411 it won last year.
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The Tories would plunge to fourth place behind the Liberal Democrats, with just 46 Conservative MPs projected.
The Liberal Democrats, meanwhile, would gain nine extra seats to build a Commons caucus of 81 MPs, while the SNP would once again be the largest party in Scotland.
Both the Greens and Plaid Cymru would gain three seats each to both hold seven slots in parliament.
It would mean a coalition government would be needed, as no one party would have a majority.
This is according to a survey of 11,500 people, which was first published by Sky News.
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The report released by YouGov said: "That a clear majority would now vote for someone other than the two established main parties of British politics is a striking marker of just how far the fragmentation of the voting public has gone over the past decade."
It added: "According to our data and methods, 26% of voters would opt for Reform UK, 23% for Labour, 18% for the Conservatives, 15% the Liberal Democrats, 11% the Greens, 3% the SNP, 1% Plaid, and 2% for other parties and independent candidates."
According to YouGov, Reform came out top of the polls in 99% of their simulations, with the rest having Labour at the top.