PETALING JAYA: Expectations of higher crude oil prices and the opening of borders are likely to lift the near-term earnings for Dialog Group Bhd.

       The planned maintenance work abroad may also recover with the expected lifting of travel restrictions by year-end.

       The outlook will likely be better over the next three to six months, according to CGS-CIMB Research.

       This should bode well for Dialog.

       The research house said, in its report, that Brent crude oil prices had hit US$82 (RM343) per barrel.

       “If the borders are open, it will help to ease the process of Dialog employees travelling abroad for plant maintenance as well as business development.”

       While all would depend on whether foreign countries would accept travellers from Malaysia, CGS-CIMB Research said the outlook remained bright given Malaysia’s high vaccination rate and declining Covid-19 caseloads.

       Malaysia is expected to allow the entry of foreign travellers sometime in 2022.

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       “This will enable Dialog’s Pengerang Deepwater Terminal (PDT) to see more long-term customers’ sign-ups.

       “Potential foreign clients will finally have the chance to visit the site, which was not possible during to the lockdowns.”

       Dialog’s share price had also seen an intense sell-off over the past four to five months, declining 38% from a peak of RM3.94 a share in May, it said.

       The sell-off was led by foreign investors, who exited the company when Covid-19 border restrictions were imposed from March, 2020.

       This had prevented Dialog from advancing its long-term strategic development of the PDT, as potential customers resisted signing multi-year take-or-pay tank terminal leases until they had a chance to see the site and meet Dialog’s top management team face-to-face.

       It also prevented Dialog’s Malaysia-based team from travelling abroad to perform overseas work such as plant maintenance and catalyst handling services.

       The rolling lockdowns last year also led to work stoppages at Dialog’s fabrication yards.

       Lower oil prices from March 2020 had also hurt the financial performance of Dialog’s two oilfield assets.

       As a result, Dialog’s first six months of financial year 2021 (FY21) core net profit declined by almost RM100mil to RM506mil, from RM603mil in FY20.

       The research house said its sum-of-parts (SOP) valuation for Dialog’s existing businesses and tank terminals is RM2.36 a share.

       This roughly corresponds with the current share price of RM2.44 a share.

       “Therefore, the future PDT phases are now free, which we value at an additional RM1.33 a share, taking the total SOP to RM3.69 a share, making the stock very compelling,’’ added the research house.

       However, potential downside risk included the possible slow lifting of international travel restrictions if new Covid-19 variants emerged, it added.