OPINION

       Rupert Lowe MP is wrong about Reform UK (Image: PA)

       Reform UK's moonshot moment could be upon us with the upcoming Runcorn and Helsby by-election and, with it, an opportunity to put the Rupert Lowe saga behind the party. While the Great Yarmouth MP's future remains somewhat in the balance, Reform now has a chance to achieve a historic swing from Labour following MP Mike Amesbury's decision to quit. Overturning July's 14,000+ plus majority will be no mean feat but Reform remains the bookies favourite even with recent splits in the party and even with Labour having gained some ground in recent polling.

       Labour benefitted both from the PM's successful visit to the US alongside public wariness of Reform's perceived coziness towards President Donald Trump following the Volodymyr Zelensky bust-up. This will not be lost on Nigel Farage, who will also be mindful that Rupert Lowe's hard right statements on migration — at this stage anyway — could stymie the party's chances of reaching the widest possible constituency.

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       The deselected MP's criticisms of Reform's direction and Farage's messianic leadership could have proven wrong in two ways had he been taken up on his advice.

       Ironically, Lowe's fears about Reform ending up more a party of protest than of power are far more likely if it only appeals to a narrow following on the Online Right.

       As for criticism of Farage's style of leadership, while Richard Tice did a stellar job of raising Reform's profile before last year's election, it is undeniable that Reform's star has risen so far of late thanks to Farage's leadership.

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       The Runcorn by-election could then afford Reform UK just the shot in the arm it needs. A chance to put the Lowe saga behind the party, even a huge swing from Labour but falling short of victory would be an achievement.

       Still, Reform knows victory is within reach and would be the mother of all game-changers, demonstrating its ongoing threat towards Labour and offering confidence it can beat the party in constituencies where it came second in July.

       Meanwhile, victory would cement the impression that Reform — not the Conservatives — are fast becoming the real alternative and opposition across the country.