Nigel Farage has strong personal popularity (Image: Getty)
More than a third of Britons now say they are likely to consider voting for Nigel Farage’s Reform UK at the next general election. People are more willing to consider backing Reform (36%) than Labour (31%), the Conservatives (30%), the Liberal Democrats (29%) or the Green Party (26%).
Worringly for the Conservatives, 44% of people who backed the Tories at the last election now say they expect to consider supporting Mr Farage’s party. This is true for 22% of those who supported Labour in the summer election, according to polling by Ipsos.
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Ipsos’s Keiran Pedley said: “Whilst it is still early in the parliament, it is clear that support for Reform UK is has grown since the election. Those considering a vote for Reform prioritise immigration as an issue and feel the party is most likely to offer change.
“On the other hand, those considering Labour prioritise the NHS and say the party is more likely than others to share their values.”
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People who voted Tory are much less likely to consider backing the Liberal Democrats next time, with fewer than one in five (19%) saying they expect to consider voting for the party. However, 38% of Labour voters say it is likely they will consider supporting Sir Ed Davey’s party.
Labour also faces competition from the Green Party. More than a third (34%) of people who voted for Sir Keir Starmer’s party expect to look at the Greens as an option next time.
The findings underscore the scale in the decline of Labour’s popularity. It has suffered a 16-point decline in the share of Britons who are willing to back it since June.
When people were asked the reasons why they would consider backing Reform, 56% said “they are most likely to provide the UK with the change that it needs” and 46% said they are the “most likely to do what they say they will”.
Nearly seven out of 10 people (69%) who are considering voting Reform said listed immigration as one of the most important issues. This was followed by inflation/cost of living (54%) and healthcare (52%).
Across the British population, healthcare is the number one issue (59%), followed by inflation/cost of living (52%) and immigration (45%).
Reform UK has made headlines with MP Rupert Lowe losing the party whip.
The controversy is unlikely to seriously damage the party’s chances in the May local elections unless party leader Mr Farage is personally harmed by the row, according to electoral expert Lord Hayward.
The Conservative peer doubted whether it will derail the party’s ambitions, saying: “The party is actually Nigel Farage and until Nigel Farage is damaged by the arguments – and at the moment he hasn’t been seriously – it’s not going to massively damage Reform. If at some point he is hurt personally by it then he will have a problem.”
The May elections for councils and mayoralties are seen as a crucial test for Mr Farage’s party, demonstrating whether it can turn success in opinion polls into real-world votes.
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Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch has predicted the May elections will be “extremely difficult” for her party – and Lord Hayward warned that the Tories are still widely seen as “incompetent”.
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He said: “Having developed a reputation of incompetence over six, seven, eight years, you don’t suddenly change it. I don’t expect the Conservatives for a year or two years to move markedly off the position they are at.”
A Conservative who held a series of top positions before the party lost power said the Tories were still in a “mess”.
Predicting Reform will have a “good night” on May 1, the ex-minister added: “I think we’ll have a terrible night.”