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Retail inflation likely picked up to 5.87% in December on rising food costs

2024-01-09 00:00:00.0 商业标准报-经济和政策原网页

India's retail inflation likely edged up in December on higher food prices but stayed within the Reserve Bank of India's target range for a fourth consecutive month, according to a Reuters poll of economists.

Food prices, which account for about half of the inflation basket, rose in November and remained elevated last month, largely led by vegetable prices and household staples.

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Inflation, measured by the annual change in the consumer price index (CPI), rose to 5.87 per cent in December from 5.55 per cent in November, according to the median view from the Jan.5-9 Reuters poll of 56 economists.

Forecasts ranged from 5.00 per cent to 6.40 per cent, with around one-third predicting inflation to hit 6.00 per cent - the upper bound of RBI's 2 per cent-6 per cent target range - or above.

"Food inflation continues to drive headline inflation higher ... pulses, spices and vegetables have been firing up inflation and now even fruit prices are joining the fray," said Kunal Kundu, India economist at Societe Generale.

The RBI had raised the repo rate by a total 250 basis points (bps) since May 2022 in efforts to cool surging inflation, but has left them unchanged since April 2023 as price pressures eased. It is expected to keep the repo rate at 6.50 per cent until at least the second half of this year, a separate Reuters poll found.

The poll showed headline inflation is expected to remain above the medium-term target of 4.00 per cent in coming months, and average 4.8 per cent in the fiscal year starting in April.

"While we don't expect a sustainable return of headline inflation to 4 per cent even over the next year, the December reading is likely to be the peak going forward," said Suvodeep Rakshit, senior economist at Kotak Institutional Equities.