The problem is to tighten sufficiently the security measures in Sochi, but of course, against really determined suicide bombers, it's not possible to eliminate the threat of terrorist attacks in the whole region. The risk of attacks has increased and will increase as the Olympics approach, because terrorists have an obvious interest in disrupting them, or trying to disrupt them.
Valdaiclub.com interview with Anatol Lieven, director of Research on Terrorism and International Relations at King’s College, London, Senior Fellow of the New America Foundation Fund, Washington, member of the Valdai Discussion Club.
Will the terrorist acts affect athletes' participation in the Olympics in Sochi?
They may have a certain discouraging effect, but terrorism now is a worldwide threat. Every Olympics have to reckon with the possibility of terrorist attack. You remember that the British had to take enormous precautions in London as well. So I don't think that this will have a critical effect. I certainly hope that it won't.
Russian officials have repeatedly declared that ensuring security at the Olympics is their main goal. Do you think that the stringent security measures in Sochi will be further reinforced?
I'm sure that they will be, yes, they'll obviously tighten them still further. The problem is, of course, to tighten sufficiently the security measures in Sochi itself, but of course, against really determined suicide bombers, it's not possible to eliminate the threat of terrorist attacks in the whole region. So undoubtedly, the risk of attacks has increased and will increase as the Olympics approach, because terrorists have an obvious interest in disrupting them, or trying to disrupt them.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, after the explosions that occurred in the Moscow Metro, said that there is an external factor in this case as well, pointing at the region between Afghanistan and Pakistan. It's common knowledge that the Taliban headquarters and Al-Qaeda nest, the transnational Islamist terrorist forces, are there. Do you think that the international community will be able to defeat this enemy?
No. It's not possible to defeat this enemy overall. That was George Bush's mistake, when he talked about war on terror, and victory, and so forth. With these people it's far too widespread; they're all over northern Africa by now, and much of the Middle East. They're far too widespread, and unfortunately, in some areas, far too deeply rooted.
And of course, countries in the Middle East are so weak that it's not possible to eliminate them. What I think we've shown in various places is that it is possible to contain them. Russia has contained this problem in the North Caucasus. It's obviously still very dangerous, as Volgograd has shown. But it's obviously far, far less of a problem than it was 14 years ago. And similarly, measures by Western security forces have contained the threat of terrorism in the West. So, they can be restricted. There are many measures that can be taken to reduce the danger. But I do not believe that it can be fully eliminated or ended.
What do you think about cooperation between Russian and British special services? After a long pause, they have started once again to cooperate.
I greatly welcome that, and have always advised that cooperation should be restored.
Do you think that such cooperation in defeating terrorist acts could help to dissolve fears and prevent these acts?
It has been useful in the past. It could be greatly enhanced, and it should be greatly enhanced. A number of countries have shown that cooperation against terrorism can continue, even when relations in other ways are bad. It's very striking, for example, that the Pakistani security forces have continued to cooperate with the British and American security forces against international terrorism, even when Pakistan has been going through periods of great crisis in its relations with the United States, because there is a common recognition that disagreement in other areas should not affect the absolutely critical area of cooperation against terrorist attacks. And so my view is that the British and Russian security forces must continue cooperation, and must intensify cooperation, fight against terrorism, regardless of disagreements in other areas.
So is it possible that we might see some results, and also some help at the Olympics in Sochi?
I certainly hope so. The thing is, because of the way that these forces work, if they're successful, we don't see the results (that's the whole point) because attacks are stopped, they don't take place. Of course, sometimes people are arrested and put on trial. But very often, part of the problem is that when this cooperation is successful, we never hear about it. But obviously these are people who need to keep their work secret. So, alas, we hear about failures, but we don't hear about the successes.
Views expressed are of individual Members and Contributors, rather than the Club's, unless explicitly stated otherwise.