GDP, OPR in focus

       THE first quarter (1Q) gross domestic product (GDP) figures will be the main highlight this week, alongside the overnight policy rate (OPR).

       Other data releases include the industrial production index, manufacturing sales and unemployment rate for March.

       Bank Negara will release the GDP figures for 1Q on Friday, OPR and international reserve as at April 29 on Wednesday.

       According to a Bloomberg poll, the country’s economy is expected to grow 3.3% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 1Q.

       UOB Global Economics & Market Research estimates GDP to expand 4.5% y-o-y in 1Q.

       GDP annual growth rate in Malaysia is expected to be 5% by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts’ expectations.

       Malaysia’s GDP expanded 3.1% in 2021, after logging 3.6% growth in 4Q21.

       Meanwhile, RHB Bank maintained its view that Bank Negara will remain on hold in terms of the OPR at 1.75% at its May 11 Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

       The research house reiterated its view that the central bank will hike the OPR by 25 basis points (bps) to 2.0% in the second half of 2022.

       UOB stuck to its call for the OPR to be raised by 25 bps to 2%, followed by another 25bps hike in 3Q22 that will bring the OPR to 2.25% by end-2022.

       The Bloomberg consensus forecast is 2.25% for the OPR at end-2022.

       Hong Long Investment Bank continued to expect Bank Negara to increase OPR by 25bps in 4Q22.

       China Consumer Price Index, trade

       CHINA’s exports likely grew 3.2% from a year earlier, according to a median forecast in a Reuters poll of 18 economists, slowing sharply from a 14.7% gain in March.

       Imports were expected to have fallen 3% y-o-y in April, the poll showed.

       Sixteen economists in the poll forecast a US$50.65bil (RM221.46bil) trade surplus in April, wider than the US$47.38bil (RM207.16bil) in March.

       Meanwhile, Bloomberg estimates China’s inflation to grow 1.9% in April from 1.5% in March.

       Gross Domestic Product

       INDONESIA and the Philippines are expected to announce their 1Q22 GDP on Monday and Thursday respectively.

       ING said after dealing with respective Covid-induced lockdowns early in the quarter, both economies managed to reopen quickly and post respectable growth for the quarter.

       It said Indonesia’s economy likely grew 5.1% while the Philippine economy expanded by 6.1%, boosted by election-related spending.

       According to a poll by Reuters, Indonesia’s 1Q GDP is predicted at 5% y-o-y.