Rishi Sunak and Reform UK leader Richard Tice (Image: GETTY)
Reform UK could represent a threat to both major parties in the general election which is almost guaranteed to be called next year, pollster Sir John Curtice has said.
The successor to the Brexit Party, led by Richard Tice, is planning to field candidates in all 650 constituencies when the Prime Minister does eventually go to the country.
Its stance is in contrast to four years ago, when then-Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage opted not to contest seats in which a pro-Brexit Tory was running.
And pointing to a recent uptick in its standing in opinion polls, including a YouGov survey suggesting it could prevent the Conservatives from winning 35 crucial seats, Sir John said the party was “beginning to act as a challenge”.
He explained: “I’ve actually been through all the polls so far this month. As many 2019 Tory voters are now defecting to Reform as they are defecting to Labour, perhaps partly to do with immigration.
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Richard Tice delivers first Reform UK speech of 2023
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“Hitherto I've been able to say immigration is irrelevant, the Government's just pushing that button, and that this is not related to whether or not they're losing support.
“There are some signs that maybe that's no longer true, and that's to the Government’s disadvantage because so many people think immigration has gone up. If what they've managed to do is to raise the profile of immigration in voters’ minds, it is to the Government's disadvantage.
"I’m not sure about that, I'd want to see more evidence but there is some evidence that suggests maybe Reform are picking some of these folks up.”
Despite the ongoing debate over the large numbers of small boats making it across the English Channel and the wrangling over Mr Sunak’s controversial Rwanda Bill, Sir John believes the party’s support is broader than might initially be supposed.
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Nigel Farage addresses Reform UK's annual conference (Image: Getty)
He continued: “I think it's a mistake to think of Reform as just picking up people who are concerned about immigration.
"Reform is also picking up the people who aren't happy about the health service, who are unhappy about the economy, who are also thinking that Brexit has not been implemented properly.
“It's acting as a vehicle for protests for 2019 Tory voters who couldn't contemplate voting even for a Keir Starmer Labour Party, let alone Jeremy Corbyn. So they are potentially competition to both Labour and the Tories, picking up Tory votes that might perhaps otherwise go to Labour, but that's something to watch.
“They're now at a record high and they are virtually all Leave voters. It's a very, very distinct constituency.”
Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer (Image: Getty)
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Mr Tice did not mince his words when speaking to PoliticsHome earlier this month.
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He said: "When the message coming through in emails is people saying their family have voted for the Tories through the generations for 200 years, but they're done with them, you know something seismic is happening.
“Every percent which Reform gains in the opinion polls is devastating for the Tories.
“You could be looking at a complete collapse in their number of seats. They should be s******* themselves."
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