JOHOR BARU: The war of words is ongoing, the switching of loyalties has started, a host of new parties are getting into the fray, most candidates have been named and 894 nominations papers have been sold, promising a record field – and yet, the Johor state election will only start in earnest on nomination day today.

       The three major coalitions – Barisan Nasional, Perikatan Nasional and Pakatan Harapan – are all hoping to take over, each having identified their candidate for mentri besar. But there are major spoilers in the mix – Muda, Pejuang and Warisan could spring surprises as they have some credible candidates.

       Anything could happen.

       After all, Johor had always been regarded as Barisan’s “fixed deposit” state before the 14th General Election (GE14) when the Opposition chalked up a shock victory, taking control of the state with a strong two-thirds majority in 2018.

       However, Pakatan’s hold on the state lasted just 22 months before Umno wrested back power after the infamous “Sheraton Move”.

       Despite 481 days until 2023 when his mandate ends, Mentri Besar Datuk Seri Hasni Mohammad decided to go back to the people after the death of Kempas assemblyman Datuk Osman Sapian from Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia left his government with a razor-thin one-seat majority.

       Hasni, however, argued that it was a hung assembly as there were 28 on the government side and 27 from Pakatan, while the speaker was from Parti Amanah Negara, a member of the Pakatan coalition.

       The Umno-led Barisan is now hoping to wrest full control of the House, without the need to be propped up by Perikatan assemblymen. It hopes to win between 33 and 38 seats in the 56-seat assembly.

       Before dissolution, Barisan had 16 seats – 14 for Umno and two for MIC – while Perikatan had 12 – 11 for Bersatu and one for PAS, for a total of 28.

       In GE14, Umno was badly bruised, winning only 17 of the 35 seats it contested. To add salt to injury, three assemblymen decided to “jump ship” and joined Bersatu soon after.

       This election is also going to be a bruising one. Unlike past elections, which usually saw straight fights between Barisan, Pakatan or PAS, there are 15 political parties involved and there’s no telling who is standing where.

       The three major coalitions have announced that they will be contesting all 56 seats, which guarantees three-cornered fights in all constituencies.

       Others expected to make their election debut in Johor include Parti Pejuang Tanah Air (Pejuang) with 42 seats, Malaysian United Democratic Alliance (Muda) with seven, Parti Warisan (six), Parti Bangsa Malaysia or PBM (four), Parti Bumiputra Perkasa Malaysia (Putra) and Parti Sosialis Malaysia (PSM) with one each. Talk is also rife that more than a dozen independent candidates may file in their papers today.

       Many of the parties are trying to showcases “young and fresh” faces to entice voters, with some announcing up to 70% new faces.

       However, parties like Bersatu, PKR and PBM have resorted to fielding “political frogs” as candidates. In GE14, at least seven candidates switched sides after winning in the elections.

       While all parties are upbeat about their chances, it is not going to be an easy one to call, mainly because of the Undi18 law and automatic registration.

       The state’s voter list has now increased by almost 800,000 voters from 1.8 million to 2.59 million.

       All the parties are also banking on Johor’s track record of high voter turnout. There was almost an 85% turnout in certain places in GE14.

       However, with the high number of Covid-19 cases, observers feel that those numbers will be hard to reach this time around.

       With international borders, especially the one with Singapore, still closed, it will be difficult for overseas voters to return to cast their ballots. Postal votes have been allowed but it does not look promising.

       Pakatan had been hopeful that the 100,000 voters in Singapore would become postal voters to help it return to power, but unfortunately, until the deadline expired on Feb 18, only 6,930 had signed up from the island republic.

       Also, there will no rallying of the masses as ceramah have been limited to 100 people. Many of the large gatherings held by Barisan or Perikatan have already got them into hot water.

       Observers note that the multi-cornered fights will be a “blessing for Barisan” as they are bound to break up the Opposition vote, especially in urban seats.

       This will surely have a negative impact on Pakatan seats, especially in the southern part of Johor.

       Many of the hot seats and those with more than 100,000 voters are in the south, namely Kota Iskandar, Puteri Wangsa, Tiram, Perling, Permas and Skudai.

       Puteri Wangsa and Larkin will be seats to watch as talk is rife that it could be a six-cornered fight.

       Among the key battlegrounds in this election are Benut where Hasni will face at least four candidates from Perikatan, Pejuang and Pakatan; and Layang Layang, where former education minister Dr Maszlee Malik is tipped to contest against Umno’s former religious executive councillor Abdul Mutalib Abd Rahim.

       Simpang Jeram will be another seat to watch where Amanah deputy president Datuk Seri Salahuddin Ayob, tipped to be Pakatan’s favourite as MB, will be standing.

       Perling will also be hot, as Johor DAP chairman Liew Chin Tong is contesting for the first time in a state seat.

       He had been embroiled in a controversy after trying to drop five DAP incumbents who were not from his camp.

       However, three were finally retained.

       Other hot seats include Kempas, Bukit Batu, Senai, Yong Peng and Skudai.

       Barisan is banking on its core supporters especially from the 73 Felda settlements state-wide to help deliver the votes in at least 30 seats.

       It is promising a strong and stable government to bring Johor back to its “former glory days” when Barisan brought in a lot of investments.

       Observers note that the current Chinese sentiment towards Barisan is somewhat cooler than in 2018.

       Pakatan candidates, especially from PKR, will have a daunting task in delivering Malay votes as the party is leading the charge in Johor by contesting the lion’s share of seats, with 20.

       “For Perikatan, they will be banking on the Muhyiddin factor to help pull in the votes in the north especially around Muar, Ledang and Pagoh, which have been developed into an education hub,” said another observer, referring to Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin, the Bersatu president, former prime minister and the state’s former mentri besar.

       Another major factor in the election will be how the Johor palace views and accepts candidates.

       Johor Ruler Sultan Ibrahim Ibni Almarhum Sultan Iskandar is known to speak his mind and does not tolerate racist politicians who sow hatred among the people.

       Many observers expect the fight in the birthplace of Umno to be intense, as this crowded state polls is regarded as a prelude or yardstick as to how the young and new voters will cast their ballot in GE15.

       A political observer said that he was looking forward to all the “cute symbols” that the candidates will be using in the state polls.

       What is certain is that whatever the speculation or prediction, the truth will be out on polling day on March 12.