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       Our chilly opening to November comes in sharp contrast to the record warmth that closed October. This new month is notorious for its temperature swings, and we expect more ups and downs in the coming weeks.

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       Even as temperatures fluctuate, there’s a good chance we’ll end up on the cool side of normal. We project November’s average temperature will range from 47 to 49 degrees, a hair below the average in recent years of 49.9 degrees.

       Since the spring, we’ve seen drier-than-normal weather most of the time, and we think that will continue another month. We’re calling for 1.5 to 2.5 inches of rain, compared with the November norm of 2.91 inches.

       November is the first month of the season in which D.C. averages some snow — albeit just 0.1 inches. Even though we lean toward slightly cooler-than-normal temperatures, we don’t see a strong signal for measurable snow this month. That said, it’s nearly to impossible to foresee snow potential more than 5 to 7 days ahead of time.

       What computer models predict for the month

       Computer models project slightly cooler- and drier-than-normal conditions over the next two weeks. These are the latest temperature (top) and precipitation (bottom) simulations from the American (left) and European (right) models:

       Even though these models are in relatively strong agreement about a cool and dry first two weeks of the month, the predicted departures from the norms are only slight, so just small changes in the actual weather could alter outcomes.

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       Looking at the second half of November, the models present mixed signals. The American long-range modeling system calls for warmer and drier than normal weather, but the European model simulates near-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation.

       One might think that the El Ni？o pattern — which often brings wetter conditions to the Mid-Atlantic at this time of year — would tilt the odds toward more precipitation. However, we haven’t seen that signal emerge yet. The European model seems to suggest it could kick in later this month. Even if it does, the dry first half of November may make it difficult for precipitation to reach normal levels for the month’s entirety.

       October recap

       Our forecast for a drier-than-normal November follows a particularly dry October. Just 0.65 inches of rain fell, the lowest total in 23 years and tied with 1912 for the 10th driest on record. Measurable rain fell on just six days.

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       Temperatures were highly variable but more often warm than cold. The average temperature of 63.1 degrees was 2.3 degrees warmer than normal, and it tied with 2016 as the 13th-warmest October on record.

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       A month ago, we correctly projected October would be warmer and drier than normal. Our projection that October would end up 1 to 3 degrees warmer than normal was correct, but our projection of 3 to 3.65 inches of rain — while a below-normal amount — was too wet.

       Here is how the month played out:

       During the month, no records were set at Washington’s official observing location at Reagan National Airport; however, several occurred at Dulles International and Baltimore-Washington International Marshall airports during the late-month warm spell:

       Oct. 25:

       Dulles set a record high of 81, breaking the old mark of 80 in 2021.

       Oct. 26:

       Dulles set a record high of 84, breaking the old mark of 82 in 1978. Baltimore set a record high of 83, breaking the old mark of 81 in 1978.

       Oct. 27:

       Dulles set record high of 86, breaking the old mark of 83 in 1984. Baltimore set a record high of 82, tying the old mark in 1963.

       With Oct 2023 in the books, here are some facts to peruse through. Above normal temps & below normal rainfall were the general themes, along with 0 severe weather reports. Nov has started off chilly, with cold/blustery conditions continuing this afternoon. #MDwx #VAwx #DCwx #WVwx pic.twitter.com/PeL1jgwBov

       — NWS Baltimore-Washington (@NWS_BaltWash) November 1, 2023

       Year to date

       With October in the books, 2023 continues to be an unusually warm and dry year.

       Washington is experiencing its third-warmest year on record, trailing only 2012 and 2017:

       And it’s having its 15th-driest year on record:

       Records in Washington date to 1872.

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