Prediction is that Vladimir Putin will overcome recent protests and return to the Presidency in an election in March, but to retain his popularity he needs to give close look to rectify certain significant issues and concerns.

       Recent rallies and demonstrations in Moscow and other cities of Russia in a show of anger over alleged vote fraud in favor of Vladimir Putin’s United Russia Party at recent Parliamentary elections where protesters including opposition leaders, scholars and celebrities called for Putin’s ouster created concern in Russia and other parts of the world as another Arab Spring like movement being fomented and financed by a foreign power to bring change in Russia. While few analysts generally dismiss the possibility that Russia could be affected by this wave of unrest, many do take seriously the prospect of such movement spreading to Russia and its nearby states. Leaving aside the question of whether this movement would be good for Russia or not, it is more important to know the likelihood of such movement’s success.

       According to my analyses it is highly unlikely that this movement will be able to change the decision of Vladimir Putin’s plan to return to Kremlin or bring any major political change in the Country. There are number of interrelated reasons for this. It is well known that Russia has little tradition of major street protests, apart from the 1917 Bolshevik Revolution. Such revolutions whenever occurred dissent has often been crushed. Therefore, there is less possibility of taking such revolutionary movement contagion in Russia for long. The constraints of the internal system and the limited expectations by the mass about the utility of such revolution who has experienced as well as witnessed closely similar movements in the past and very well aware about the consequences are unlikely to take-up any drastic decisions. However, the fearful factor in this movement is that they can bring lot of disturbances and chaos. The political uncertainty has already affected Russians stocks and the ruble. The ruble-denominated MICEX index fell by 3.8 percent, the dollar-based RTS index dropped by 4.7 percent and the ruble was 1.3 percent down against the U.S. dollar. Nonetheless, what has been seen in the past in this region is that success of such revolutions is not as much as their proponents probably hoped for. Moreover, the after effects of such revolutions are even more pathetic and most of the Russian population are well aware of such post-revolution syndromes, hence unlikely to accept such sufferings readily.

       As far as Russian present Prime Minister and Presidential Candidate Vladimir Putin is concerned, according to him this type of demonstrations are common in any ‘democracy’. General public opinion in the cities other than Moscow & St. Petersburg reflects that there is no better alternative to Putin therefore; Putin is still considered Russia's most popular politician & leader. He has strong support of the many millions from the provinces who regard him as the man who restored order to Russia after the chaos of the decade that followed the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. It was quite clear that after stipulated period of time his return will be evident. Therefore, Russia’s majority of population was not surprised about his decision to be back as President! Though recent demonstrations could make some change in dropping the rate in favour of Vladimir Putin, dipping average rating from 60-61 percent to 51 percent, which may be due to general emotional background in the post elections period and effect of demonstrations, however, leaving aside the emotional feeling at the moment the overall trend is still positive and supportive. Though there are discontent amoung people about the high corruption rate on which Russia didn’t significantly improve, as per today, Russia is in the 143 position out of 182 in the list of the surveyed Countries. There are also defects in the political system and needs to be reformed but at the same time, the present governments measures to stabilize the economy in a period of international turbulence as well as Russia’s WTO membership was highly appreciated by the majority of the population in Russia.

       Prediction is that Vladimir Putin will overcome recent protests and return to the Presidency in an election in March, but to retain his popularity he needs to give close look to rectify certain significant issues and concerns. At the same time, he should be open enough to bring in other younger politicians in the forefront so that they could be groomed as the future possible leaders of the Country.

       Views expressed are of individual Members and Contributors, rather than the Club's, unless explicitly stated otherwise.