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Taiwan elections: Rivals strike deep in front runner Lai’s stronghold Tainan

2024-01-10 00:00:00.0 海峡时报-亚洲原网页

TAINAN – Cab driver Wang Yong-li from Taiwan’s oldest city, Tainan, is a bit hesitant when asked who he would vote for in the Jan 13 presidential election.

“The candidate I vote for would not win anyway,” he said.

Then, after a pause, the 54-year-old lets on that he supports the main opposition party, Kuomintang (KMT).

If Mr Wang sounds pessimistic, it is because Tainan is not only a stronghold of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), but also where DPP presidential candidate Lai Ching-te, 64, made his mark as a politician. He was first a lawmaker representing the southern metropolis of about 1.8 million people, and then its mayor.

A popular travel destination famous for its ancient fortresses and local snacks, Tainan was founded by the Dutch in 1624 and was the capital of Taiwan until 1887.

The coastal city, dominated by Minnan-speaking Taiwanese whose ancestors had moved there from China’s southern Fujian province as early as the 1600s, has traditionally supported the pro-independence DPP rather than the China-friendly KMT.

At the 2020 presidential election, nearly 68 per cent in Tainan voted for the DPP’s Ms Tsai Ing-wen and her running mate, Mr Lai, who won with a record 8.17 million votes or 57.1 per cent of the vote.

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But the odds have not stopped Mr Lai’s presidential race rivals – Mr Hou Yu-ih of KMT and Dr Ko Wen-je of the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) – from making incursions into the city in an attempt to snatch votes from Mr Lai’s power base.

On Jan 8, Mr Hou, 66, went around two districts in the city in a motorcade and also visited temples and an evening market. Dr Ko, 64, spent two days in the same week campaigning, drawing a snaking queue of young people lining up at a night market to take a picture with him.

Tainan might not be the iron-clad “warehouse of votes” for the DPP as people assume it to be, said political analyst Shih Cheng-feng, who retired from Taiwan’s National Dong Hwa University in 2023.

Dr Ko Wen-je, presidential candidate for the Taiwan People’s Party, praying at a temple before speaking at a rally in Tainan on Jan 8. ST PHOTO: CHONG JUN LIANG

While Mr Lai made his start in Tainan as a politician, local corruption scandals such as one involving the illegal dumping of industrial waste have tarnished the reputation of the DPP in the city, Dr Shih told The Straits Times.

Current DPP Tainan Mayor Huang Wei-che won by a margin of less than 5 percentage points over his KMT rival in the 2022 municipal elections, the analyst noted.

The DPP won only five out of 21 city mayor and county chief seats, while the KMT won 13. The TPP won one seat, with the remaining two won by independents.

This is perhaps why Mr Lai, considered the favourite to win the presidential election, according to opinion polls, is also stepping up campaigning in the city.

Embarking on a motorcade tour that would take him from the south of Taiwan to the north, he was in Tainan on Jan 8 to greet voters and is scheduled to appear at a rally there on Jan 12, the eve of the election.

Taiwanese Vice-President and Democratic Progressive Party presidential candidate Lai Ching-te greeting supporters during a campaign motorcade tour in Kaohsiung on Jan 8. PHOTO: AFP

DPP campaign staff told Taiwanese media that there is a risk that supporters might feel that Mr Lai and the DPP candidates are sure to win and thus decide not to vote. One DPP legislative candidate, for example, is a shoo-in as his KMT rival has been disqualified.

Dr Shih said the DPP hopes that votes from the south would make up for a shortfall in votes in the north, where its support levels are weaker. “But what if others come here to snatch their votes?”