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       It will soon be time to break out your snow shovels and ice scrapers, if you believe the nuts.

       Acorns, black walnuts and hickory nuts are all forecasting a harsh winter for the Washington area, folklore says.

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       Oak trees have produced a tremendous quantity of acorns this fall. Hickory trees and black walnut trees have turned out an amazing crop of nuts as well.

       Scientists say we’re having a “mast year” in which hardwood trees produce nuts in much greater abundance than normal.

       Folklore predicts a cold and snowy winter will follow. “Acorns … that fall heavily means a cold winter is coming. Similarly, a large crop of walnuts means a snowy, cold season,” writes the Old Farmer’s Almanac.

       But before rushing to the hardware store to stock up on winter supplies, there’s an important consideration: Science says nut production is more an indicator of past weather than the future.

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       Rod Simmons, natural resource manager for the City of Alexandria and plant ecologist, has a simple explanation for why mast years occur: “Drought is good for pollination,” Simmons said, “and hardwood trees pollinate well during a dry spring, resulting in a heavy crop of nuts.”

       Simmons explained it’s usually the first two weeks of April when hardwood trees flower and pollinate in the Mid-Atlantic region. And this year, the first half of April was exceptionally warm and dry, perfect for windblown pollination.

       Mast years also occur in cycles, and not back-to-back years. According to Simmons, nut production takes a lot of energy and nutrients from trees, which requires time for recovery.

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       Alonso Abugattas, leader of the Capital Naturalist Facebook group, explained another reason mast years occur: “It allows for predator satiation so that trees produce more acorns and nuts than all predators can consume,” he said. “It’s an evolutionary occurrence that ensures new trees will grow.”

       However, not all hardwood trees are producing bountiful nuts this fall. Abugattas mentioned that oak trees in parts of Madison County, Va., are not dropping many acorns. Thus, not all trees get the mast year message.

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       During some years, there have been nut shortages — the opposite of a mast year. The acorn bust of 2008 followed a very wet start to April when measurable rain fell 10 of 15 days in Washington between March 31 and April 14.

       Pollination that year was thwarted by the prolonged wet weather and few, if any, acorns were produced. There were reports of hungry squirrels.

       Returning to folklore and winter forecasts, Abugattas said: “Supposedly, a mast year means a harsh winter, but no real evidence points to this.”

       Computer models project stormy winter in D.C. That helps snow chances.

       That’s not good news for snow lovers, but there is some hope. Our last significant mast year was 2015, and an epic snowstorm buried the D.C. area the following winter. Two feet of snow fell across much of the region on Jan. 22-24, 2016.

       Was that snowstorm a coincidence, or was it related to the previous mast year?

       Let’s check back in March to see if this nutty forecast verifies for a cold and snowy winter. I’m rooting for snow.

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