correction
A previous version of this article incorrectly referred to Del. Elizabeth R. Guzman (Prince William) as a former delegate. She is a current delegate. The article has been corrected.
The newly proposed Virginia congressional map sent candidates scrambling Thursday to rethink their campaigns after the draft gutted the state’s competitive 7th Congressional District and moved it to a completely new part of the state.
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State legislators, meanwhile, were still absorbing the proposed General Assembly maps, which to an unusual degree doubled- and tripled-up incumbent delegates and senators in the same district. Half of Virginia’s state senators and delegates were drawn into districts with a fellow incumbent, according to an analysis by the nonpartisan Virginia Public Access Project (VPAP).
The special masters appointed by the Virginia Supreme Court — one Democrat and one Republican — unveiled a congressional map Wednesday that still gives Democrats an edge, but leaves Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) nearly 50 miles away from the proposed 7th Congressional District, which would move to the Northern Virginia exurbs, including all of Prince William and Stafford counties, and out of the western Richmond suburbs. That would make the seat much safer for Democrats.
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Spanberger declined to comment through a spokesman, noting she is focused on her current constituents.
Proposed congressional map leaves Spanberger miles away from her district
The proposal had a number of Republican challengers questioning their plans to continue a race in the 7th District and a number of Democrats in Prince William County exploring a run.
State Sen. Bryce Reeves (R-Spotsylvania) quickly made the call to withdraw from the 7th District race and instead set his sights on Virginia’s 10th Congressional District, held by Rep. Jennifer Wexton (D). The newly proposed 10th District would include all of Loudoun County, but instead of stretching west to the Shenandoah Valley like it does now, it would instead go south along Route 29 to the northern half of Albemarle County. It also includes some of Reeves’s current turf, in Spotsylvania and Orange counties, among others.
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The Republican challenger leading the GOP field in fundraising in the 10th, Prince William County Board Supervisor Jeanine Lawson (Brentsville), would be drawn into the 7th under the proposed map. But in a statement Thursday afternoon, Lawson said she would be continuing in the race, regardless of what the final lines look like.
Most other 7th District Republicans — including Del. John J. McGuire III, Tina Ramirez, Taylor Keeney and state Sen. Amanda F. Chase (Chesterfield) — said they were waiting on the map to be finalized before making any decisions.
Keeney, who would be drawn into Republican Rep. Rob Wittman’s 1st District, said she wouldn’t challenge Wittman, and Chase said she would not challenge Rep. Bob Good (R), whose southside-anchored district would include part of Chesterfield County under the proposal.
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In Prince William County, Democrats including state Sen. Jeremy McPike, former delegate and gubernatorial primary candidate Jennifer Carroll Foy, and Prince William County School Board Chairman Babur Lateef said they were exploring the possibility of running. Other names in the mix: Del. Luke E. Torian (Prince William), Del. Elizabeth R. Guzman (Prince William) and Del. Hala S. Ayala (Prince William), who recently lost her bid for lieutenant governor.
The map will still go through public comment and changes can be made before the Virginia Supreme Court finalizes it. Redistricting responsibilities for both congressional and legislative maps went to the high court after the voter-enacted bipartisan Virginia Redistricting Commission failed to reach a consensus on any of them.
Under the congressional proposal, six districts would likely lean or be safe Democratic seats, while Republicans would likely retain four seats that lean or are safe GOP seats. The 2nd District, held by Rep. Elaine Luria (D), would continue to be highly competitive. Under the proposal, Biden would have won the district by just under 2 percentage points in 2020.
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With regard to the legislative maps, Democratic and Republican leaders were unusually mum as they considered challenging maps that would pit many incumbents against each other.
Fifty of the state House’s 100 delegates were drawn into shared districts, as was the case for 20 of the 40 state senators, according to VPAP’s analysis. In some cases, three delegates or senators have been drawn into single districts.
When mapmaking was a legislative function, legislators would typically consider the addresses of incumbent delegates and senators to avoid pitting them against each other, said Sen. George Barker (D-Fairfax), who was a member of the redistricting commission.
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The special masters said they did not consider — or even know — the addresses of incumbents as they drew the maps. And they did not intend to take that into consideration unless the Supreme Court instructs them to do so. The one exception: After drawing the maps, the special masters learned that one district pairs two Black senators, L. Louise Lucas (D-Portsmouth) and Lionell Spruill (D-Chesapeake).
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That pairing could raise questions about whether the map dilutes the voting clout of minorities in violation of the Voting Rights Act, Democrats said. Barker said Senate Democrats will send a letter to the court asking it to ensure that the Voting Rights Act is followed.
The Princeton Gerrymandering Project calculated that the state House map creates 58 seats favorable to Democrats, 42 that lean Republican and 17 competitive districts.
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According to that analysis, the state House maps could usher in a stronger Democratic majority than the party enjoyed for the past two years, when anti-Trump sentiment flipped the chamber blue for the first time in a generation and gave the party a 55-to-45 majority. Democrats lost the chamber in November’s elections, which gave Republicans 52 seats to the Democrats’ 48.
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But VPAP’s analysis suggests the new state House map would become a little more favorable for Republicans. Under the current map, 53 favor Democrats, 39 lean Republican and eight are toss-ups, VPAP found. The proposal would make 50 tilt blue and 40 lean red, leaving 10 up for grabs.
As for the state Senate maps, VPAP found that the proposed maps would do little to upset the partisan tilt of the closely divided chamber, which Democrats currently control 21 to 19.
Princeton’s analysis suggests a Senate with 24 seats favoring Democrats and 16 tilted Republican, but finds three of the seats competitive.