An increasingly frustrated Vladimir Putin could be on the verge of inflicting massive civilian casualties in Ukraine by unleashing indiscriminate artillery and rocket fire on built-up areas, Western allies fear.
Western officials believe it is now clear that the Russian president’s initial invasion plan has foundered due to a fundamental miscalculation of the readiness of the Ukrainian people to resist and the scale of international support they would receive.
Putin is expected to press ahead with his initial goals of encircling and seizing capital Kyiv and swallowing up the eastern Donbass region, home to a large Russian minority.
But it is believed that to do so, he is likely to use the next 24-48 hours to recast the nature of his thwarted offensive, with growing concern that he will use indiscriminate firepower to clear a path for his tank columns into Ukrainian cities.
However, there is confidence that Ukraine’s military and armed civilians will not give up the fight. One Western official said: “They are tough and they will keep going for a very long time.
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“The UK will continue to support them in whatever form the resistance takes to this unwarranted invasion.”
Reports have indicated the use of cluster bombs in civilian areas of Ukraine’s second city Kharkiv, and there is evidence of the presence among the invading forces of TOS-1 rocket launchers capable of firing thermobaric weapons to create intense high-temperature blasts over large areas.
The availability of the TOS-1 to Russian forces gives rise to “considerable concern”, said one Western official, adding: “Certainly, if it is used in any built-up area, there is no way you can eradicate the risk of significant civilian casualties.”
There is already concern over the increasing use of rockets and tube artillery by Russian forces around Kyiv, Kharkiv and Chernihiv, and fears that this marks a shift in tactics which will be stepped up in the coming days.
“I fear that the way in which Russia has been frustrated in achieving its aims on the ground is leading to more indiscriminate fire and as a consequence we are going to see more civilian casualties,” said one official.
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Work is already under way on the ground to gather evidence of potential war crimes for an eventual prosecution of Russian leaders - potentially including Putin - before the international courts.
Intelligence suggests that the decision-making process behind the Russian invasion plan was drawn up by a “very small” inner circle around Putin, many of whom may have shared his misconceived faith in the likelihood of Ukraine being swiftly overwhelmed with little fighting.
Instead of resulting in a quick victory, Russian actions so far have “stirred up a hornet’s nest”, said one official.
“They have under-estimated the capacity of the Ukrainians to fight and they have created problems for themselves.”
After denying any Russian deaths for the first two days of the invasion, Moscow’s defence ministry has now admitted casualties. While no figures have been released, it is believe that a significant number of soldiers must have been lost to force the Russian authorities into this limited admission.
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Huge explosion in Kyiv shortly after Ukraine-Russia negotiations end
Advancing vehicles have been forced to a halt by a failure to maintain supplies of fuel, and bridge-building teams have been blocked from making their way to rivers where Ukrainian defenders have destroyed crossings.
“All of this has been exacerbated by the failure on the first day of the Russian forces to destroy Ukraine’s air defence capabilities,” said the official. “Part of their plan involved having air superiority from the outset.
“It will become clearer over the next 24-48 hours whether the Russian forces are able to deal with the problems they have and get themselves into a better military order to start on the objectives they have set out.
“It is clear that they are currently well behind the timetable they were set.”
This map shows major cities in Ukraine as well as Moscow-backed separatist regions. As of early this week, rebels held only parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions highlighted
(The Independent)
Coupled with the practical difficulties on the ground, events have shown that Putin miscalculated the response of countries around the world and the “remarkable” unity of Europe in coming to Ukraine’s aid with sanctions on Russia.
With the value of the rouble collapsing and inflation soaring in Russian shops, the embattled president has called in economic experts for talks in a clear sign he is rattled by the impact of sanctions.
And the continuation of street protests in Russian cities, as well as statements from a number of oligarchs calling for an end to the war, indicates that Mr Putin may have misjudged the mood of his nation.
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“It is very difficult to find any credible Russian voice outside the state broadcasting apparatus and state propaganda machine that has come out in support of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,” said one Western official.