A successful India–US trade deal could mitigate risks to the economy and boost exports, even as private investment remains cautious in the face of global uncertainty, the Finance Ministry said on Tuesday.

       “This may be no moment for self-congratulation but, equally, it is a moment to remember one’s strengths and leverage them to make oneself not just attractive but also indispensable to investors,” the Finance Ministry said, while highlighting India’s advantages such as macroeconomic stability, fiscal prudence and benign inflation.

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       In its Monthly Economic Review for April 2025, the Finance Ministry said that the imposition of reciprocal tariffs by the US—even though under a 90-day suspension—had injected uncertainty into India’s export outlook.

       “The risk of renewed trade barriers remains a key external vulnerability… A successful US–India trade agreement could flip current headwinds into tailwinds, opening up new market access and energising exports,” the review said.

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       The Finance Ministry said India has the potential to remain one of the most promising destinations for investment amid global uncertainty.

       On inflation, the ministry said pressures stemming from food items are expected to remain low due to a good rabi harvest, an increase in the area sown under summer crops, and healthy buffer stocks of foodgrains. “The forecast of an above-normal monsoon by the India Meteorological Department bolsters this outlook.”

       In April 2025, retail inflation continued its downward trend, easing from 3.34 per cent in March to 3.16 per cent.

       The review noted that economic activity demonstrated resilience in the first month of FY26 despite a challenging global environment. According to the International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook (April 2025), India’s real GDP growth for 2025–26 is pegged at 6.2 per cent—30 basis points lower than its previous forecast in January 2025.

       “This progress is underpinned by robust demand conditions within the economy. As of April 2025, India remains the fastest-growing major economy despite a revision of growth rates amid rising global uncertainties and trade tensions,” the April review said.

       India will also be watchful of the outcome of a pause in US–China reciprocal tariffs, as well as the passage of the US Budget Bill for the next financial year, as both will set the tone for global financial markets in the final months of 2025, the Finance Ministry said.

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