The Arab world finds itself at a turning point. The tectonic shifts triggered by the uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt continue to spread throughout the region. Their impact has been tremendous – both positive and destructive at the same time. All the region’s inhabitants have been caught up in the vortex.
In the last few decades, Arab countries have been mired in deep crisis, lagging behind even other developing nations. While production in Egypt and Tunisia grew by a healthy 5%-7%, the average for other countries did not exceed 2%, leading to a decline in living standards. Unemployment stood at 15%-20% on average but was much higher among young people. More than a third of the population of the Arab world lives on less than $2 per day. Over 30% of the almost 400 million inhabitants of the Arab countries cannot read or write. The gap between rich and poor has been growing, as has that between rich and poor countries. Gender inequality remains a source of discontent.
In an age of rapid scientific and technical progress, and especially the dissemination of new information technology, the masses have come to detest what they see as an unfair way of life, marked by income inequality, backwardness and humiliation. Corruption, unemployment, the suppression of basic rights, persecution of dissidents and the immoral monopolization of power by the elites all provided a strong impetus for the Arab revolutions.
Will the Arab spring turn into a sweltering Arab summer? It can be argued that the events that took place in the first half of this year launched a new phase in modern history, a wave of permanent Arab revolutions that originated in Tunisia and Egypt and swept through practically all the countries of the Middle East and North Africa.
This is a new type of mass action. These are real social revolutions rather than Islamic movements, triggered by the global systemic crisis of the dominant capitalist mode of production. Capitalism has reached a critical point as an economic system. Lenin was mistaken in his belief that the crisis of capitalism in the early 20th century was systemic and final. At that time capitalism was undergoing a structural crisis that it overcame fairly quickly through reforms and a fundamental transformation.
What we are witnessing now is a systemic crisis. The components of economic life are undergoing radical change. Science, knowledge, modern technology and information systems are becoming the main productive force.
The global balance of power is also changing drastically – America’s huge financial debt is eroding its leading position in international relations, all the more so as in five years’ time China will match the U.S. in terms of GDP purchasing power parity.
This systemic crisis is reflected in capitalism’s obvious inability to control economic and social processes by technical or administrative means. It has to resort to armed force, proof of its impotence and moribund state. The opening of the third front (after Iraq and Afghanistan) against Muammar Gaddafi and the assassination of Osama bin Laden are telling. These actions, which violated international law and claimed lives, have not been effective. Despite barbarous bombings, the Gaddafi regime is still in power; bin Laden’s death has not eliminated al-Qaeda or put an end to terrorism. On the contrary, the Navy Seals’ operation aggravated the Af-Pak conflict, stoked extremist sentiment and heightened the risk of using Pakistan’s nuclear potential as blackmail.
The Arab revolutions represent a new round in the West’s confrontation with the Islamic world. Libya has become the West’s third war with a Muslim country (in addition to Afghanistan and Iraq). America has thus reaffirmed its self-proclaimed right to run world affairs as it sees fit, considering only its own interests as it violates international law and the universal principles of interstate relations.
The operation to kill bin Laden, in violation of Pakistan’s national sovereignty, risks escalating the terrorist activity of al-Qaeda and other extremist Muslim groups in Pakistan, Afghanistan and other regions, such as North Africa, where al-Qaeda has several affiliates.
A new alignment of forces is taking shape in the Arab world. The conditions are highly volatile and differ from country to country.
It would be a mistake to reduce all Arab revolutions and uprisings to a single common denominator. True, the fundamental causes behind massive uprisings are similar: authoritarian rule, lack of freedom, dire economic and social conditions, abject poverty, the huge gap between the narrow strata of corrupt rulers and the masses’ living conditions. However, developments have followed different courses in different countries.
Tunisia and Egypt have advanced social and economic institutions and a much higher general level of education and national consciousness. This is why their progress is much more obvious, particularly in Tunisia where left-wing groups are traditionally better organized and enjoy influence in the country (Tunisia now has 55 political parties). In Tunisia, Rachid Ghannouchi, the popular leader of the Islamic movement Al-Nahda, represents the intellectual elite and the more moderate Islamic circles. Indicatively, he has long been in touch with Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and this interaction has become more active of late.
Three main forces have come to the fore of political life in Egypt – the army, young people and Islamic organizations, primarily the Muslim Brotherhood (which quickly established itself as a political party and has given a number of major posts to Copts and women). Egypt’s revolution has dramatically changed its foreign policy. It has returned to the pan-Arab fold and gradually moved away from its special relationship with Israel (Egypt lifted the blockade on the Gaza Strip). This change will consolidate the positions of Islamic organizations, particularly with respect to efforts to reach an Arab-Israeli peace deal (including the formation of a Palestinian state, Jerusalem, refugees, borders, etc.). Politically and morally this will help Arab nations preserve their honor and dignity. Relations between Egypt and Israel are bound to deteriorate (there has been speculation in the media about the two sides withdrawing from the Camp David Accords). This potential deterioration and the events in Syria are creating the preconditions for an eventual armed conflict. Egypt’s new role may alter the conditions of the Arab-Israeli conflict by putting Israel in an extremely vulnerable, confrontational position with the surrounding Arab world. This will enhance the influence of the demographic factor which hangs over Israel like the Sword of Damocles and for the first time in the last 50 years Israel could well face a real threat to its continued existence in its current form.
The Israeli elite’s apprehensions were reflected in a statement made by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at his meeting with U.S. President Barack Obama in May. Responding to the U.S. peace initiative, Netanyahu bluntly rejected the possibility of returning to the 1967 borders, as that format does not allow Israel to guarantee its own security because of this new demographic reality. Tel Aviv is extremely concerned that the UN General Assembly will pass a resolution recognizing a Palestinian state based on the 1967 borders.
The Palestinian call for the peaceful return of refugees has become another source of concern for Israel. This aspiration is now both popular and practical. There are over 4.7 million refugees currently. Last May the Arab revolutions gave a powerful psychological impetus to the peaceful actions of refugees who crossed the red line on the border to “return to their homes.” This has not yet developed into a large-scale movement, but it may in the future. The Palestinians will make broader use of this and other similar tactics as they grow stronger.
The Jerusalem issue is now seen in a new context, largely owing to the Arab revolutions. Sheikh Yusuf al-Qaradawi, a very popular Muslim leader who now resides in Qatar, urged demonstrators on Egypt’s Tahrir Square to march for Jerusalem’s return. This is one of the most sensitive issues – the Al-Aqsa Mosque is a major Muslim holy site and not a single Arab leader will dare sign an agreement in which East Jerusalem is not recognized as the capital of the Arab state of Palestine.
While the Arab revolutions have unfolded differently in different countries, cumulatively they have helped break the stalemate in the Arab-Israeli conflict. First, they have stirred the Arabs from their deathlike torpor, helped them overcome their fear (after being humiliated so many times) of invincible Israel (supported by the world’s strongest power) and put them on the offensive. Much will depend on the Palestinian leadership’s ability to overcome internal strife and unite the masses and militant groups. The general situation in the region and in Europe will play a very important role as well.
In Yemen, where the opposition is represented by tribal leaders who are seeking power, this trend may prompt a regression and the entrenchment of feudal tribal traditions, perpetuating backwardness and causing a rift.
For all its weaknesses and mistakes, Ali Abdullah Saleh’s regime helped Yemen make progress. It was working to create a centralized state and overcome centuries of backwardness, disunity and internecine strife. Saleh’s departure will not only set Yemen back decades and destroy its current modernization programs, it risks turning it into a breeding ground for extremist Muslim groups of various hues.
The anti-government actions in Syria, which are obviously being stoked by certain forces at home and abroad, are creating serious tensions for the Assad regime. It managed, until recently, to promote economic development and maintain stability and relatively high living standards for the bulk of the population. Many Arab political scientists believe if the Western-backed domestic opposition drives the president into a corner, he will have to take action against Israel. That will win him the unreserved support of the majority of Syrians and people across other Arab and Muslim countries, and the opposition will have to lay down their arms and retreat.
Libya remains extremely unpredictable. NATO bombings may lead to the breakup of the nation, the splitting-off of what in classical times was known as Cyrena？ca. Political analysts are also discussing the possibility of a new regime coming to power in Tripoli if the West succeeds in toppling the Gaddafi family (which seems unlikely for the time being). Regardless of the outcome, many analysts see the potential for a consolidation of Islamist elements in the country, creating a dangerous hotbed in the center of the Mediterranean, with its cheap reserves of quality oil and gas. The inevitable growth in emigration from Libya and Tunisia to Europe makes this prospect even more perilous.
In general, all nations gripped by the Arab revolutions remain highly volatile. The media’s role as an involuntary manipulator of events makes it tremendously difficult to get an accurate picture or to understand the alignment of forces and the possible paths the region could take. The powerful and sometimes decisive role of the media (the Internet – Twitter and other social media – and TV channels like Al Jazeera and Al-Arabiya) is a distinctive feature of events in the Middle East. The media is an effective tool for spreading information, rapidly mobilizing the masses and especially young people, and shaping public opinion. Media moguls offer their interpretation of the events to millions of people through their televisions and computer screens, as and how they deem necessary.
Friday prayers have also become much more important than ever before, exerting a powerful psychological influence on the conduct of believers.
These Arab revolutions are unusual in that they are elemental mass movements embracing a broad stratum of society, without a leading center, organized structures, a manifesto or even specific tasks, apart from the overthrow of the individuals in power and family clans associated with them. The masses are united by common emotions – anger, discontent and a hatred of the ruling elites. People are simply sick and tired of their decades-long rule (Mubarak – 30 years, Saleh – 33 years, Gaddafi – 44 years and Ben Ali – 23 years), all the more so as these individuals all exploited their positions for personal enrichment.
However, even half a year after the first incidents and the continued sparks of discontent not a single political force in the Arab revolutions has managed to develop a comprehensible and realistic development program that is capable of mobilizing the masses. This creates a real risk that the revolutions will collapse. Inevitable problems in the functioning of economic, social and financial agencies will end the revolutions, reverse economic development and make living standards even worse. New rulers, whether from the same old elites or radical Muslim groups (a distinct possibility in Yemen and even Libya), will come to power.
There is a real risk that domestic and outside forces may exploit the current discontent and the negative energy of “rejection” to attain their own goals.
The formation of a new alignment of forces in the Mediterranean is a direct consequence of the Arab revolutions. This spark of social revolutions threatens to spread north from its southern coast. The smoldering social discontent that indicates capitalism’s systemic crisis was initially suppressed in France, on the Pyrenean Peninsula and in Greece in fall 2010. However, it did reveal the true extent of the gap between the rich and the poor. The 1995 Barcelona Process plans failed across the board. Its participants failed to set up the free trade zone promised in 2010, to reduce what was essentially a boycott of agricultural products from the South and to weaken resistance to Turkey’s European Union (EU) accession.
The use of the experience, methods and newish slogans of the Egyptian and Tunisian movements (formation of organizational committees and communication through Twitter) is a typical feature of mass actions in Europe. However, clearly defined reasons for discontent and particular demands made were the most important elements in European protests: “Those who caused the crisis – rulers and banks that created financial bubbles – must pay.” This was a typical switch from economic to political demands, a manifestation of the class struggle against the powers that be, against corruption, the brainwashing of the general public and attempts to stifle freedom and expression with starvation rations and punitive methods, such as tougher working conditions, sweatshops, benefit cuts and reduced pensions.
The Mediterranean is gradually turning into an arena of Islamic-Christian confrontation. Ageing Europe is losing its moral compass and undergoing rapid de-Christianization. It is unable to cope with the increasing numbers of Muslim immigrants. It is now obvious that both the French model of integrating immigrants and the English assimilation model have failed. The American-Canadian model of multicultural relations has not worked, either (due to totally different conditions). Far from becoming part of European society, Muslim immigrants have consolidated their position in these countries as alien enclaves that are perceived as threatening. They do not recognize, and in fact reject, many practical elements of the fundamental principles of European civilization, such as human rights, freedoms, tolerance and political correctness, to name but a few.
Islamophobia keeps on growing in the West. Right-wing parties are intimidating the public with predictions that Islam will become the dominant force and that Europeans will lose their roots and identity. Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi often exploits this apparent Islamic threat by saying “I’m your safeguard against the Muslim onslaught” and this trick seems to work every time, helping him shore up his political position.
Given current events, the trend in terms of the five crises in the region – the Arab-Israeli conflict, Iraq, Iran, Af-Pak, and Sudan – is clearly one of expansion. As these crises worsen, tensions with Muslim communities across the EU and the U.S. will increase, especially since new immigrants are continuing to arrive in search of a better life. The development of modern communications is considerably accelerating this process.
It will be some time before even preliminary conclusions can be drawn on the role played by the Arab revolutions of spring 2011. The revolutionary foment continues. There are ups and downs and even occasional moments of calm. However, it is very difficult to offer even a general assessment of this movement because it comprises a host of independent components, even though to a great extent they share common roots. Moreover, it is even harder to get a real picture of these rapidly changing events because the media is a key actor, on a par with major domestic and foreign players. Never before has the media played such a key role in politics. It is a virtual player but it can throw light on events or obfuscate them for all those who are not witnessing them directly.
Yet, there is every reason to say that the Arab revolutions have changed the history of the Middle East. These revolutions enabled people to overcome their fear of the all-mighty powers that be, their own inertia, apathy, despair and inability to stand up to tyranny, violence and corruption. This is a tremendous psychological change. People united and succeeded in overthrowing seemingly immutable governments, thereby creating a powerful incentive for the opposition to take action against the regimes.
What outcome will these actions have? What are their motivating forces in the different countries? These are two crucial questions. It is clear, even now, that some forces are earnestly striving for change with a view to creating a modern, more socially just and democratic society, whereas others are pursuing their own mercenary goals or are merely an instrument of outside forces. This is particularly typical of events in Yemen and Syria. In the absolute majority of cases, the protesters lack a center or even clear immediate targets, not to mention strategic vision.
The Arab revolutions have yielded an important result as a lesson to the rulers of a number of other Arab countries, primarily monarchies where public actions did not swell into large-scale protests. Having understood the need to prevent events turning nasty and keen to preserve stability, the Kings of Jordan and Morocco (who are considered to be enlightened monarchs by many) renounced their absolute powers and introduced programs for democratization, the transfer of considerable powers to elected bodies and the expansion of social freedoms.
Russia’s proximity to Arab-Muslim civilization is well known. Russia and the Islamic world are not only geographic, historical and economic communities – they are also closely bound together by spiritual and cultural links, by common traditions and philosophy. They represent two segments of world politics that have tremendous human and economic potential. This determines their responsibility, their role in world affairs in general and the Muslim Ummah in particular.
Cognizance of this historical reality and the acceptance of it as a permanent factor are essential for Russia’s efforts to develop a contemporary but historically and scientifically substantiated strategic concept and concrete policy.
Russia should not seek to disassociate itself from the current processes unfolding in the Arab world. It should take up its traditional reconciliatory role, upholding all aspects of social justice.
Views expressed are of individual Members and Contributors, rather than the Club's, unless explicitly stated otherwise.