The Eurasian Union is Putin’s top priority. He advanced this idea back in 2009, and he will push to implement it, since he believes that economic integration will be beneficial for all its members. The Eurasian Union does not have to include all post-Soviet countries, since the economic rationale is more important than mere expansion.
Valdaiclub.com interview with Fyodor Lukyanov, editor–in–Chief of Russia in Global Affairs magazine, member of the Valdai Discussion Club.
Why did Vladimir Putin choose Minsk for his first visit as president?
I believe that this is just a formality, a nod to tradition. Formally, for institutional reasons, Belarus is Russia's closest ally, since we are part of the Union State. Although this state is gradually sinking into oblivion, it still exists. Again, for formal reasons, no one is closer to Russia than Belarus no matter what happens between the two countries in actuality. Our relations are notoriously devious and don’t show too much of the proclaimed spirit of brotherhood. Selecting Minsk for the first visit is not about symbolism; on the contrary, it’s about the conspicuous lack thereof.
What priorities will Putin pursue in his foreign policy?
His first visits – and his cancelled trip to the United States – are a clear indication of his priorities. Relations with the U.S. can be considered a priority only in the sense of maintaining strategic stability. In other words, if no progress can be made on the missile defense issue, then there’s no reason to meet. The first truly foreign visits – Belarus is not really a foreign country –were to Berlin and Paris and took place just before the EU summit. The idea behind this is clear. Europe does matter, and Putin wants to continue practical cooperation with key European countries, since they are real decision-makers. Moscow shows even less interest in the Brussels bureaucracy than before. However, Putin is not prepared to waste too much time on maintaining such cooperation as can be seen from the fact that he’ll make both visits in just one day. Then, he will go on a major visit to China. No matter what Putin thinks about China – and his attitude is clearly ambiguous – relations with China are critical and much depends on them. He will go to Uzbekistan earlier than to Kazakhstan in an attempt to reset relations with this recalcitrant and most unreliable CSTO ally whose position stands in the way of making this organization a working military and political alliance. Moscow needs this to happen as clouds in Central Asia are gathering in the wake of the changing situation in Afghanistan.
Where do the CIS and Eurasian integration feature on this list? Why is the half-forgotten idea of the Union State at the top of his executive order on foreign policy?
The Union State is a tribute to tradition and a remembrance of origins. In fact, the Eurasian Union is Putin’s top priority. He advanced this idea back in 2009, and he will push to implement it, since he believes that economic integration will be beneficial for all its members. The Eurasian Union does not have to include all post-Soviet countries, since the economic rationale is more important than mere expansion.
Why do you think Putin didn’t go to the G8 summit and sent Medvedev instead?
This is his symmetrical response to Obama. Word leaked out that Obama will not go to Vladivostok. Putin appreciates gestures and treats them with all seriousness. If you don’t come to see us, then we won’t go to see you. An eye for an eye.
How will relations between Russia and the West proceed in the future?
International events are unpredictable, but I have the following scenario in my mind: Rapprochement with Europe that is both arduous and wearisome, since both sides are hugely dependent on each other. Russia will not become an institutional part of Europe, although it’s also not quite clear what Western institutions themselves will become ten year from now.
Views expressed are of individual Members and Contributors, rather than the Club's, unless explicitly stated otherwise.