JAKARTA: Indonesia's June trade surplus is seen tripling from the previous month amid an expected drop in imports, despite a forecast of deep contraction in exports, a Reuters poll showed on Friday.
The median forecast of 12 economists showed the trade surplus in Southeast Asia's largest economy rising to $1.35 billion from $440 million in May.
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The country's trade surplus has so far shrunk this year, with the lowest monthly surplus reported in May, as exports soften amid declining commodity prices and weakening global demand.
In June, outbound shipments were seen falling 18.85% on an annual basis after a growth of 0.96% in May, economists in the poll predicted, while imports likely contracted 7.75% from a year earlier, versus May's growth of 14.35%.
Indonesia is the world's biggest exporter of thermal coal and palm oil, and a major supplier of tin, rubber, coffee and nickel metal. Last year, its trade surplus hit a record high of $54.46 billion amid the global commodity boom.
Josua Pardede, chief economist at Bank Permata, said on top of falling prices, June exports were also hit by slower manufacturing activities in Indonesia's major trade partners. He predicted a $1.18 billion surplus in June.
Analysts have predicted economic growth will slow this year due to declining exports. - Reuters
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