JOHOR BARU: In less than 24 hours, Johor will go to the polls after 14 days of intense campaigning against a backdrop of Covid-19 restrictions.

       Campaign managers acknowledged that a strict Covid-19 standard operating procedure (SOP) limited their outreach to voters, triggering all political parties to aggressively use social media to push their agenda.

       To date, at least 10 candidates have tested positive and have been quarantined, and at least 15 media personnel have also had to grapple with the disease, since campaigning started on Feb 26.

       As rivals get aggressive in presenting their side of the argument, debate challenges were issued but the police quickly said “no” to such events.

       Among issues raised in the debate dares were Chinese education and schools, as well as the welfare of the Federal Land Development Authority (Felda) dwellers, as there are more than 150,000 voters in 73 Felda settlements statewide.

       Some parties have also been constantly harping on the “court cluster” group referring to several Umno leaders who have either been sentenced or are facing criminal charges in court.

       Other hot button subjects brought up include bread and butter topics, especially the rising cost of living, the high unemployment rate in the state, the need for better infrastructure, and the severe economic downturn in Johor following the two-year border closure with Singapore.

       Although many mini political ceramah were held these past two weeks, it has been a challenge to gauge sentiments with just about 100 people attending them, many of whom are, we believe, party workers or volunteers.

       Pollsters are putting Barisan Nasional in the lead position to win in this crowded elections comprising 15 political parties and 239 candidates.

       Many within Barisan circles are upbeat and predict that Umno will be able to bag at least 33 out of 36 seats, while MCA will get at least three and MIC another three.

       With 39 seats, they will have a two-thirds majority and will be able to form a strong government.

       Rival parties such as Perikatan Nasional have also been ramping up their social media campaign against Barisan, saying this is the election that will shatter Barisan’s Malay “fixed deposit” seats in Felda settlements and rural areas.

       Presently, the 73 Felda settlements have at least 25 to 30 seats out of the total 56 seats statewide.

       Universiti Teknologi Malaysia political analyst Dr Mazlan Ali said that Barisan should be wary as Perikatan has been very aggressive over the last few days.

       “I am impressed with Perikatan’s social media attacks that have been consistent in labelling Barisan as being corrupt and also showcasing all the goodies given to the people during Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin’s time.

       “They are showcasing him like a ‘Santa Claus’ who gave away presents during the Covid-19 lockdowns and this can sway votes,” he said, adding that people would see Pakatan Harapan as a stingy party as during Tun Mahathir’s rule, he was reluctant to loosen the purse strings and give away goodies.

       Mazlan observed that for the Opposition to win seats, they would need a voter turnout of 75% and that is possibly the reason they are going all out to ask those living outside of Johor to come back.

       These efforts include making personal calls to voters.

       As for the big losers in this election, Mazlan said it could be newly registered parties such as Parti Pejuang Tanah Air (Pejuang) and Parti Warisan Sabah (Warisan).

       Even the 16 independents contesting – including Parti Socialist Malaysia (PSM) and Johor Parti Bumiputra Pesaka Malaysia (Putra), which are both contesting one seat each – are expected to lose.

       Another political observer said that for Barisan to win big, the party would need a low voter turnout of 60% to 65%, and so far, their strategies have been pointing towards that.

       “Even the anti-hopping laws have yet to be tabled and that, too, will put people off from coming out to vote as Johor has had at least seven political ‘frogs’ after (2018’s) GE14,” the observer said, adding that the dismal number of only 7,800 plus postal voters from Singapore shows that people are not so keen on this election.

       “While many people have been saying that the 750,000 new or automatic voters could sway the elections, does anyone really know if all of them will come out and vote?

       “I am sure many 18-year-olds will not even know they are voters in Johor,” he said, adding that many college students only found out that they were voters after he sent them their election commission online link to check their voting status.

       The observer noted that the Opposition would have had a better chance in this election if the parties put aside their differences and worked under the “big tent” concept to unite all Opposition parties.

       Even PKR president Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim has been campaigning solo for his 20 party candidates without attending many of Pakatan’s major ceramah.

       “I have noticed DAP, Amanah and Malaysian United Democratic Alliance (Muda) together at many of the ceramah,” the observer said, adding that if Pakatan does badly in Johor, there would be louder calls for Anwar not to lead the coalition in the next General Election, GE15.

       So far, the hot seats in the Johor election include Puteri Wangsa, Bukit Kepong, Simpang Jeram, Parit Yaani, Layang-Layang, Kempas, Gambir, Perling, Tiram, Larking, Paloh, Yong Peng and Kota Iskandar.

       Presently, Johor has 25 Malay majority seats, 17 mixed seats and 14 non-Malay majority seats.