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The Tories may loathe it, but they must learn from Keir Starmer in order to come back
2024-07-05 00:00:00.0     每日快报-政治     原网页

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       Keir Starmer arrives at Downing Street

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       Last night was devastating for the Conservatives. No beating around that bush. They lost 250 seats - many that the party have held for nearly a century - and their vote share was down 20%.

       I certainly won’t deny that the party in large part wholly deserved this kicking, they shot themselves in the foot so many times they could no longer hobble, let alone walk. But it was nonetheless hard to watch MPs I’ve known for years and who have worked hard for their country ousted by forces largely beyond their control.

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       The party will be waking up with the hangovers of all hangovers this morning, but I suggest that to move on from this, the Tories must do something very painful - and learn from Sir Keir Starmer himself.

       There are four key lessons from Sir Keir’s efforts in taking Labour from its worst defeat since 1935, to its best result since 1997.

       READ MORE: General Election: Rishi Sunak concedes to Keir Starmer after Labour landslide

       Keir Starmer won because he did the hard yards (Image: Getty)

       1 - Optimism in the face of defeat

       In many ways, Sir Keir Starmer was less of a great political leader (he increased the Labour vote just 1.7% on Jeremy Corbyn’s dire 2019 showing) and more like a very natty financial investor.

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       What he saw was a party/company that despite appearing in dire straits had in fact bottomed out, and had the potential for a big comeback.

       I don’t want to diminish the scale of this morning’s defeat, but I posit the Tories could now be in a similar position.

       Their vote share may have collapsed, but a huge swathe of Labour’s new gains have tiny majorities, and a slight uptick next time will lead to many Tory wins.

       Despite doomsday predictions, the Tories have won 121 seats, and are 50 seats in the clear of the LibDems as the clear opposition in parliament - something Reform UK’s four-seat taking helps with in terms of media attention.

       Sir Keir’s majority is less than Tony Blair in 1997, and a meagre 5% of voters said they were backing Labour because of their policies, versus 48% who said they merely wanted the Conservatives out.

       Labour has huge expectations to deliver now, and if Germany, Australia, America and France are anything to go by, centrist and centre-left leaders have repeatedly failed to secure the trust of voters once in office.

       In short, a good Tory leader could make the next election much much more competitive than this morning’s results may suggest.

       The Tories are in a better position than many polls suggested they would be (Image: Getty)

       2 - Change the party

       Speaking at his victory rally this morning, Sir Keir repeated the mantra we’ve come to hear so often: that he changed the Labour Party.

       He’s right on this. For all his failings, he ruthlessly dispatched the loons - those more interested in protesting than winning elections - and he’s rooted out much of the antisemitism that ran rampant under Jeremy Corbyn.

       This must now also be the biggest priority for the next Tory leader.

       From staffing, competence and tactical efficiency by their HQ, to the quality of shadow cabinet members, the next Tory leader must be ruthless.

       While it’s a problem that didn’t afflict Labour in 2019 - indeed their problem was the opposite - the next party leader must have a mandate to fundamentally reform the party’s constitution and leadership rules.

       So much of the Tory vote collapse was down to the chaos of three Prime Ministers in a year, foisted on the country by MPs who became all-obsessed and addicted to never-ending regicide.

       While Rishi Sunak eventually got through to a general election, it didn’t stop the media being frequently distracted by speculation over whether his MPs might launch a putsch against him.

       The rules need changing to ensure stability in future. It’s beyond the scope of this piece, but I would suggest something along the lines of the threshold for a vote of confidence being raised from 15% of MPs to 50%.

       The rules of the 1922 committee must be reformed so they’re not made up on the hoof every leadership election, and the next leader would do well to look to some changes proposed by the Conservative Democratic Organisation regarding party democracy, the power of local associations and members, and candidate selection - the latter of which is something Sir Keir grasped wholeheartedly and is absolutely crucial for the future of the party.

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       Sir Keir's victory may compare with Tony Blair in 1997, but the foundations are much shakier (Image: Getty)

       3 - Quiet competence, not virtue signalling

       Whenever Sir Keir was heckled by protesters over the past few years, he had this putdown in his back pocket: “We gave up on being a party of protest five years ago.”

       Despite being in power for 14 years, for much of the last five years, the party has felt more like a party of media bigmouths and protestors against the system.

       How often did we hear Tory bigwigs and leaders railing against something, only for nothing to change?

       Home Secretary after Home Secretary fumed about record-high immigration and did nothing about it.

       Minister after minister would rail against ‘woke’, but did the Equality Act ever get abolished or amended? Did it heck. It was government by virtue signalling, not by action.

       While the civil service does need major reform to ensure neutrality, the Tories never felt like they worked out how to operate the levers of power effectively.

       The party must resist carping on GB News for five years, and ruthlessly focus on quiet, confident competence - and persuading voters that is the case.

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       4 - Unfortunately, governments lose elections - opposition parties don’t win them

       This will be the bitterest pill to swallow. Because putting all the above to one side, including the optimism that things may not be quite as bad as they look, the reality is they have to pray that Keir Starmer fails.

       It’s often been joked over the past few years that Keir Starmer must own an unlimited wish genie. He’s stayed still while the Tory Party collapses around him.

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       Yes, oppositions must be credible, competent and have popular policies and leadership so as not to scare off voters, but as the eternal adage goes, it’s governments that lose elections, not opposition parties that win them.

       The Tories will now experience the ignominy and irrelevance of opposition for the first time in 14 years, and it will be a cold and tough Siberia experience.

       They must do the hard yards, as Sir Keir did, but at the end of the day, it’s now all up to him to determine whether we’re back to politics as normal, or whether 2029 is yet another ‘unprecedented’ political event.

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