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Contrary to intent, Biden's Afghan pullout could undermine Asia shift

2021-08-20 00:00:00.0 海峡时报-亚洲原网页

WASHINGTON (REUTERS) - Mr Kurt Campbell, the White House's top Asia adviser, declared last month that a historic change in US foreign policy was afoot, one that would shift focus away from the Middle East to Asia, where China's growing might has cast shadows over Washington's allies.

"It will be painful, in all likelihood. We'll see some real challenges in places like Afghanistan," Mr Campbell told an Asia Society webinar, a blunt assessment of what has since come to pass as the Taleban's swift takeover of the country sparked a humanitarian crisis.

Officials argued that withdrawing from Afghanistan would free up time and attention of senior US political and military leaders, as well as some military assets, to focus on the Indo-Pacific.

But experts and former officials say President Joe Biden's poorly executed troop withdrawal from Afghanistan appears - in the near term and possibly for much longer - to be undermining the very goal of freeing the United States to concentrate on China, something successive presidents have sought, only to be pulled back to the Middle East.

Contrary to the planned quick pullout, Mr Biden has been forced to send in thousands of troops to protect the evacuation of US personnel and Afghans potentially subject to Taleban retribution, while the chaos has unleashed a political storm at home.

Mr Biden has said the original Aug 31 deadline for troop withdrawal now may be extended to finish the job.

Moreover, the US was forced to move its lone aircraft carrier in the Asia-Pacific, the Ronald Reagan, to the Middle East in June to help with the withdrawal. As the situation in Kabul has deteriorated, jets from the carrier have been flying over the city to provide extra security.

While the redeployment may only be short-term, the need to divert the carrier from the Asia-Pacific has raised questions about US ability to project power there.

US operations in Afghanistan are also likely to continue to consume the attention of senior officials who might otherwise have their eyes on Beijing.

"As Assistant Secretary for the Indo-Pacific, Ely Ratner has Afghanistan in his portfolio. Where do you think his primary focus is for the next three months or longer?" said Mr Eric Sayers, a defence policy expert at the American Enterprise Institute.

Others warn that terrorist groups will likely re-establish themselves in Afghanistan under the Taleban, raising the prospect that the United States will need to return in some fashion, much like it returned to Iraq to combat the rise of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria.

Mr David Sedney, who served as deputy assistant secretary of defence for Afghanistan, Pakistan and Central Asia, dismissed claims by US officials that counter-terrorism operations could be conducted from outside the country as a mirage.

"No one who is serious about counter-terrorism believes it," he said. "The United States is going to pay a terrible price for this at some point in the future. Another 9/11."