The recent escalation of the situation on the Korean Peninsula began in August, after two South Korean soldiers had been wounded by a mine explosion in the demilitarized zone. Seoul put the blame for the incident on the DPRK and resumed the anti-North Korean propaganda using the loudspeakers – which had been idle for eleven years – near the contact line of forces.

       It seems that the threat of war on the Korean Peninsula has once again been lifted. On August 25, high-ranking representatives of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) and the Republic of Korea (ROK) held an emergency meeting in the demilitarized zone splitting the two states and reached an agreement to lower the intensity of military confrontation.

       The recent escalation of the situation on the Korean Peninsula began in August, after two South Korean soldiers had been wounded by a mine explosion in the demilitarized zone. Seoul put the blame for the incident on the DPRK and resumed the anti-North Korean propaganda using the loudspeakers – which had been idle for eleven years – near the contact line of forces. Pyongyang, in its turn, denied all responsibility for the mine and threatened to start military operations, unless the loudspeakers were cushioned.

       On August 17, the US and South Korea began joint military maneuvers, which Pyongyang deemed as a rehearsal for invasion. The armies of both Korean states were ordered on a war footing. On August 20, the sides exchanged artillery strikes.

       After August 25, Seoul shut down the loudspeakers. Pyongyang lifted the "semi-state of war". Intergovernmental negotiations in one of the capitals were scheduled, the countries vowed to make reciprocal efforts to help unite the families divided by the Korean War of 1950-1953.

       The inter-Korean conflict has a long history. Korea was a Japanese colony in 1910-1945. After Japan's defeat, according to agreements signed by the Allies – the USSR, US and Great Britain – the country was supposed to become independent. Its territory was split by a line along the 38th parallel. The capitulation of the Japanese forces was to be ensured by the Soviet Army in the north, and by the US forces in the south.

       In December 1945, the US-Soviet Union Joint Commission was formed to facilitate the formation of an Interim All-Korean Democratic Government. But the Soviet side was buttressing the left-wing forces, while the American side put it stakes on the right-wingers. In August 1948, the US-backed right-wingers, declared establishment of the Republic of Korea in the south. In retaliation, the left-wingers proclaimed the Democratic People's Republic of Korea. Each of the states laid claims for power over the territory of all Korea.

       The Korean War unleashed on June 25, 1950 was basically a civil war between two Korean camps – the North, aspiring after a Soviet-model future of independent Korea, and the South, willing to align with American standards. In the Cold War context, it escalated into a large-scale war, almost resorting to nuclear weapons. Directly or indirectly, the Great Powers – the US, USSR, China and also the United Nations, the latter sending international troops under its flag to aid the South – were pulled into the Korean War.

       The war has turned Korea into scorched earth. According to some assessments, American aircraft dropped more bombs on Korea than on Germany during the Second World War. The war took the lives of millions of Koreans, hundreds of thousands of Chinese people's volunteers, tens of thousands of American and other foreign soldiers sent to Korea as part of the UN Forces.

       There were no winners in the Korean War. Neither the North nor the South reached its targets. The war ended where it had begun. Korea remained divided into two states along the selfsame 38th parallel, de jure still at war, because the Armistice Agreement signed on July 27, 1953, is nothing more than a temporary ceasefire agreement between the commanders-in-chief of the armed forces of the warring parties. The division of Korea was fixed by the two opposite camps on the world arena. Following the Cold War standards, the Soviet Union, China and other socialist states ignored existence of the Republic of Korea, while the US and its allies did not recognize the DPRK.

       The post-Cold War era created a background for resolution of the Korean problem. Moscow made its step, establishing diplomatic relations with the Republic of Korea in 1990. Both Korean states were admitted to the UN. China followed suit, opening its embassy in Seoul in 1992. However, the US and some of its allies refused to recognize the DPRK.

       New peace prospects appeared in Korea after South Korean liberal-minded President Kim Dae-jung's declaration of the Sunshine Policy towards Pyongyang. In the first decade of the 21st century, a vast groundwork was created for the contacts between the two Korean states, preeminently in the commercial-economic sector. There were good reasons to expect that the experience of the Kaesong Industrial Complex – built by means of South Korean investments on the territory of the DPRK and uniting the two systems of management – would gradually be used as a model all over the territory of the DPRK, therefore, creating the underpinning for economic and further political integration of the two Korean states. Unfortunately, the rise of the conservative administration to power in Seoul in 2008 stalled the process of inter-Korean rapprochement.

       In 2003-2008, the two Korean states held six-sided negotiations attended by China, US, Russia and Japan to settle the nuclear problem of the Korean Peninsula. The joint declaration of the six states released on September 19, 2005, stipulated concrete proposals that not only charted a course towards denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, but also to overall rehabilitation of the situation in the region. However, not all the participants were ready to put the negotiation results into practice. This entailed three nuclear tests conducted by Pyongyang.

       The missile and nuclear programmes of Pyongyang aggravated the security threats in Northeast Asia and beyond. In no way justifying the programme, it stands to mention, however, that it was a direct consequence of the confrontation between the two Korean states, and the inter-Korean normalization is the key requisite for settlement of the nuclear problem of the Korean Peninsula. Today, it is a matter of normalization of relations between the DPRK and the ROK, because neither the North nor the South is ready for reunification at the current stage. The partners of the two Korean states are not ready for it either.

       The Korean Peninsula harbors an exceptional cluster of military potential today. According to Western assessments, the DPRK Armed Forces are the fourth largest in the world, the South Korean forces can only be ranked sixth in the list. Moreover, provided by the American-South Korean Mutual Defense Treaty, over 25,000 US troops are stationed in South Korea under the leadership of the South Korea/US Combined Forces Command (CFC). The CFC is under the command of an American general, who would take charge of the ROK Armed Forces, should an armed conflict erupt on the Korean Peninsula.

       The 63 years that have passed since the end of the Korean War have demonstrated that the Korean problem cannot be resolved by war, regardless of whom the hostile sides ask for support. Even without use of nuclear weapons, the military conflict between the Korean states would be suicidal for both of them. The only way out of the confrontational deadlock is dialogue between Seoul and Pyongyang to find a political solution. Decisions need to take into account interests and guarantee security of both Korean states and all the countries in the region.

       Expectations of some forces that the existing form of government in North Korea would shatter in the near future have little merit: the system has repeatedly proven considerable endurance. De-isolation of the DPRK, its socio-economic upswing, transformation into a full-fledged member of international dialogue would benefit South Korea and all the countries in Northeast Asia. The DPRK should be talked with, not shouted at through loudspeakers. The DPRK feeling itself relatively secure and confident is a much more reliable partner for talks on any issues than a country cornered by the burden of sanctions.

       It would probably be worth a try to return the Korean issue to the UN agenda, considering that it has been a dropout since 1975. It would be a major step to, for instance, hold a conference dedicated to peace on the Korean Peninsula under the auspices of the UN, looking into a complex of issues of making peace, resumption of diplomatic relations between the DPRK and the Republic of Korea, the US and Japan, denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, reduction of arms and armed forces, development of economic cooperation between the two Korean states, proposals on economic assistance to Pyongyang. The conference could be attended by the UN secretary general, five permanent members of the UN Security Council, DPRK and the Republic of Korea. Other countries may join in at the discretion of the two Korean states.

       The peace treaty that serves to substitute the Armistice Agreement of 1953 sooner or later should not be a mere non-aggression pact between the parties involved in the Korean War, it should also be a much larger-scale partnership document that would transform the DPRK from an outcast state into a full-fledged member of international dialogue, recipient of aid from international monetary organizations and so on. The two Korean states should be the parties of the peace treaty. The permanent members of the UN Security Council, in their turn, should act as guarantors that the obligations assumed by the parties according to the treaty would be fulfilled.

       Russia is steadfast in building bridges between Seoul and Pyongyang. The inter-Korean normalization would doubtlessly benefit from practical realization of such large partnership projects of Russia, North and South Korea as the Europe-Korea international railway corridor, construction of the Russia-DPRK-Republic of Korea gas pipeline, development of a united energy system in Northeast Asia, which would be bound with the regions of East Siberia and Russia's Far East.

       Views expressed are of individual Members and Contributors, rather than the Club's, unless explicitly stated otherwise.