Vaccine doses administered
per 100 people
10
20
30
40
50
60+
NOTE: NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR WHITE COLOURED COUNTRIES
THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE: OUR WORLD IN DATA
Vaccine doses administered per 100 people
10
20
30
40
50
60+
NOTE: WHITE COLOURED COUNTRIES HAVE NO DATA AVAILABLE
THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE: OUR WORLD IN DATA
Vaccine doses administered per 100 people
10
20
30
40
50
60+
NOTE: WHITE COLOURED COUNTRIES HAVE NO DATA AVAILABLE
THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE: OUR WORLD IN DATA
Vaccine doses administered per 100 people
10
20
30
40
50
60+
NOTE: WHITE COLOURED COUNTRIES HAVE NO DATA AVAILABLE
THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE: OUR WORLD IN DATA
Vaccine doses administered per 100 people
10
20
30
40
50
60+
NOTE: WHITE COLOURED COUNTRIES HAVE NO DATA AVAILABLE
THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE: OUR WORLD IN DATA
More than 18 months since COVID-19 surfaced, the pandemic still presents an unprecedented global crisis. The worldwide spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus has led to the biggest vaccination campaign in history. More than 2.7 billion doses have been administered across more than 200 countries, and roughly 40 million shots are now being given a day.
Africa Bureau Chief Geoffrey York, European Correspondent Paul Waldie, U.S. Correspondent Adrian Morrow and Interactive Editor Jeremy Agius break down how the world is faring in the fight against COVID-19.
What is the current state of vaccinations, globally? In many ways, the global progress has been stunning, defying all predictions.
In February of last year, the World Health Organization cautioned that a COVID-19 vaccine might not be publicly available for 18 months. History supported that prediction: Vaccines have usually required anywhere from two to five years of development. Instead, after a huge international effort, many COVID-19 vaccines are now available, barely 16 months after the WHO’s gloomy prediction, and 22 per cent of the world’s population has received at least one dose.
In dozens of countries, more than 40 per cent of the population has received at least one shot. Several – including Canada and Britain – have first-dose vaccination rates above 60 per cent. As a direct result, the COVID-19 death rate has declined steeply in many countries.
Total vaccinations per 100 people in each
country by income group
Africa
Asia
Europe
North America
Oceania
South America
vaccinations per 100 people
High-income countries
Canada
U.S.
Australia
Chile
Brazil
Upper-mid
Indonesia
China
Lower-mid
Cameroon
India
Kenya
Low income
Ethiopia
1.5 Billion
Circle size
corresponds
to population
1 million or less
0.1
1
10
100
Note: Country income groups are designated by
latest availble World Bank ranking
THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE: OUR WORLD IN DATA;
WORLD BANK
Total vaccinations per 100 people in each
country by income group
Asia
Europe
Africa
Oceania
North America
South America
vaccinations per 100 people
Canada
High-income countries
U.S.
Australia
Chile
Brazil
Upper-mid
Indonesia
China
Lower-mid
Cameroon
India
Kenya
Low income
Ethiopia
1.5 billion
Circle size
corresponds
to population
1 million or less
0.1
1
10
100
Note: Country income groups are designated by latest availble
World Bank ranking
THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE: OUR WORLD IN DATA; WORLD BANK
Total vaccinations per 100 people in each country by income group
Africa
Asia
Europe
North America
Oceania
South America
vaccinations per 100 people
Canada
High-income countries
U.S.
Australia
Chile
Brazil
Upper-mid
China
Indonesia
Lower-mid
Cameroon
India
Kenya
1.5 billion
Ethiopia
Low income
Circle size
corresponds
to population
1 million or less
0.1
1
10
100
Note: Country income groups are designated by latest availble World Bank ranking
THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE: OUR WORLD IN DATA; WORLD BANK
Total vaccinations per 100 people in each country by income group
Africa
Asia
Europe
Oceania
North America
South America
vaccinations per 100 people
Canada
High-income countries
U.S.
Australia
Chile
Brazil
Upper-mid
China
Indonesia
Lower-mid
Cameroon
India
Kenya
1.5 billion
Ethiopia
Low income
Circle size
corresponds
to population
1 million or less
0.1
1
10
100
Note: Country income groups are designated by latest availble World Bank ranking
THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE: OUR WORLD IN DATA; WORLD BANK
Total vaccinations per 100 people in each country by income group
Africa
Asia
Europe
Oceania
North America
South America
vaccinations per 100 people
Canada
High-income countries
U.S.
Australia
Chile
Brazil
Upper-mid
China
Indonesia
Lower-mid
Cameroon
India
Kenya
1.5 billion
Ethiopia
Low income
Circle size
corresponds
to population
1 million or less
0.1
1
10
100
Note: Country income groups are designated by latest availble World Bank ranking
THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE: OUR WORLD IN DATA; WORLD BANK
But while the global achievement has been impressive, the injustices are increasingly desperate. The vaccine gap between rich and poor has become severe. In Africa, for example, less than 3 per cent of the population has received any vaccine. Not by coincidence, many African countries today are suffering a renewed surge of COVID-19 infections and deaths. And with the recent drastic slowdown in deliveries from the non-profit COVAX program – the main source of vaccine supply for most low-income countries – the inequities between the wealthy and the impoverished are growing even worse. Many of the poorest countries are unlikely to be immunized until 2023 at the earliest.
Share of people vaccinated against COVID-19
percentage of population, data as of June 22
Fully vaccinated
At least one dose
Africa Oceania Asia South America Europe North America 42 38 26 22.70 16.10 2.50 THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE: Our World In Data
data
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Place Fully vaccinated At least one dose North America 31 11 Europe 24 14 South America 11 15 Asia 7.7 15 Oceania 3.1 13 Africa 1 1.5
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Where has the vaccine rollout stalled? Vaccine rollouts have been uneven around the world but some countries have fallen surprisingly short.
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Japan: The Olympics are fast approaching and Japan is still grappling with high infection rates and a sluggish vaccination campaign. Less than 10 per cent of people have been fully vaccinated and the number of daily infections remains above the level health experts say is safe. Vaccinations have been held up by regulatory delays and supply problems.
Russia: The development of an effective vaccine, Sputnik V, should have put Russia well ahead in immunization. Instead, just 14 per cent of Russians have received a single shot and only 11 per cent are fully vaccinated. Meanwhile, daily infections have climbed above 17,000 because of the Delta variant. The botched rollout has been blamed on vaccine hesitancy and questions about the long-term immunity provided by Sputnik V.
Share of people who received at least
one dose of vaccine in select countries
as of June 22
Canada
66.9%
Britain
63.6%
60
U.S.
53.1%
50
40
Brazil
30
30.7
Australia
22
20
Japan
19
Russia
13.9
10
New Zealand
13.2
Vietnam
0
2.4
2021
Mar.
May
THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE: OUR WORLD IN DATA
Share of people who received at least one dose
of vaccine in select countries
Canada
as of June 22
66.9%
Britain
63.6%
60
U.S.
53.1%
50
40
Brazil
30
30.7
Australia
22
20
Japan
19
Russia
13.9
10
New Zealand
13.2
Vietnam
0
2.4
2021
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE: OUR WORLD IN DATA
Share of people who received at least one dose of vaccine
in select countries
Canada
as of June 22
66.9%
Britain
63.6%
60
U.S.
53.1%
50
40
Brazil
30
30.7
Australia
22
20
Japan
19
Russia
13.9
10
New Zealand
13.2
Vietnam
0
2.4
2021
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE: OUR WORLD IN DATA
Brazil: The country has struggled from the outset of the pandemic and for months President Jair Bolsonaro ignored offers of vaccine from Pfizer-BioNTech. Mr. Bolsonaro is now ramping up inoculations, but more than 30 per cent of Brazilians have had one dose and only 11 per cent have received two.
Oceania/Southeastern Asia: Australia, New Zealand, Taiwan and Vietnam have won plaudits for their COVID-19 containment strategies. But they’ve been less effective at vaccinations, and many locals fear they’ll be left behind as the rest of the world reopens.
Only 4 per cent of Australians, 8 per cent of New Zealanders and less than 1 per cent of Vietnamese and Taiwanese have been fully vaccinated. All were slow to order doses, and Australia and Vietnam ran into problems manufacturing vaccine. New Zealand’s government hopes to have everyone vaccinated by the end of 2021, six months after Canada, Britain and the United States.
COVAX was meant to help lower-income countries. Is it working? Gavin Yamey, a U.S.-based health expert, has described COVAX as “a beautiful idea, born out of solidarity.” But the multibillion-dollar program, co-founded by the WHO and aimed at ensuring global access to vaccines, has fallen far short of its goals. The main reason was simple: “Rich countries behaved worse than anyone’s worst nightmares,” Dr. Yamey told British medical journal The Lancet this month.
COVAX is a global procurement program, intended as an insurance policy for wealthy countries (in case they bought vaccines that didn’t work) and an equity program for poorer countries (to guarantee them access to a minimum number of vaccines). It aimed to provide doses for at least 20 per cent of the population of lower-income countries by the end of this year. But COVAX had a key flaw: It could not compete against the financial muscle of the richest countries. Those countries largely bypassed COVAX and negotiated their own bilateral deals with suppliers, using their wealth to secure far more vaccines than they needed and damaging the pipeline of supplies. As a result, the program relied too heavily on a single supplier: the Serum Institute of India, which produces AstraZeneca vaccines. When a surge of COVID-19 cases sparked a crisis in India, the institute was forced to divert its production to the domestic market, leaving COVAX running empty.
COVAX vaccine shipments
millions of doses, data as of June 22
Total shipments
337
88
Actual doses
delivered
June 30
target
Allocated vs. shipped vaccines
by continent
Allocated
Shipped
94
Asia
39.6
77.6
Africa
22.4
20.8
South
America
14
Only about 28% of allocated vaccines for Africa have shipped
13.6
North
America
7.1
4.8
Europe
3.2
1.9
Oceania
1.2
0
20
40
60
80
100
THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE: UNICEF
COVAX vaccine shipments
millions of doses, data as of June 22
Total shipments
337
88
Actual doses
delivered
June 30
target
Allocated vs. shipped vaccines by continent
Allocated
Shipped
94
Asia
39.6
77.6
Africa
22.4
20.8
South
America
14
Only about 28% of allocated vaccines for Africa have shipped
13.6
North
America
7.1
4.8
Europe
3.2
1.9
Oceania
1.2
0
20
40
60
80
100
THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE: UNICEF
COVAX vaccine shipments
millions of doses, data as of June 22
Total shipments
Allocated vs. shipped vaccines by continent
Allocated
Shipped
June 30
target
94
337
Asia
39.6
77.6
Africa
22.4
20.8
South
America
14
Only about 28% of allocated vaccines for Africa have shipped
13.6
North
America
7.1
4.8
Europe
Actual
doses
delivered
3.2
1.9
Oceania
88
1.2
0
20
40
60
80
100
THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE: UNICEF
So far, COVAX has delivered 88 million vaccine doses to 131 countries. That’s far short of the 337 million doses that it expected to deliver by the end of this month. And some of the 88 million doses have gone to wealthy countries – including Canada – which has left fewer vaccines for the 92 low-income countries that depend heavily on the program.
How many COVID-19 vaccines have G7 and other countries donated to COVAX? As wealthy countries get closer to vaccinating their adult populations, there’s growing pressure on them to share excess supply. The WHO estimates that it will take 11 billion doses to fully vaccinate everyone. So how much is being shared?
The Group of 7: At the recent G7 summit, leaders committed to donating 870 million doses to COVAX and some other countries over the next year. The U.S. is contributing 580 million doses while Britain is donating 100 million. Canada has pledged to return 13 million doses to COVAX that the government ordered but no longer needs.
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European Union: The EU has committed 100 million doses to COVAX. The biggest contributors are France and Germany, with 30 million each. Italy and Spain are also each chipping in 15 million doses.
China: The U.S. donations are aimed in part at heading off what American officials see as vaccine diplomacy by China. Beijing has sold around 760 million doses of its Sinovac vaccine to dozens of countries, mainly in Africa and South America, and donated 23 million doses, according to figures from China-based Bridge Consulting.
Japan: Tokyo, too, has tried to counter China’s vaccine diplomacy by sharing one million doses with each of Taiwan and Vietnam. Japan is also donating 30 million to COVAX.
How does Canada’s vaccine rollout compare? Canada’s vaccination program has picked up pace in recent months and it now leads Group of 20 countries in the percentage of people who have received one shot. But when it comes to the number of people who have been fully vaccinated – given two doses – Canada drops to the middle of the pack, at around 20 per cent of the population.
That’s well behind Britain and the U.S., both at roughly 45 per cent. It’s also far back of non-G20 countries including Israel, at 60 per cent, and Chile, where roughly half the population has been fully vaccinated.
G20 member nations ranked by share
of people vaccinated
share of population, data as of June 22
At least one dose
Fully vaccinated
Canada
Britain
U.S.
66.7
63.5
60
53.0
46.3
44.9
40
20
19.6
0
Italy
Germany
France
60
52.5
50.8
47.5
40
31.4
26.6
24.9
20
0
E.U.
India
Argentina
60
47.4
40
34.0
32.1
28.2
20
17.3
8.2
0
Brazil
South Korea
Australia
60
40
30.1
29.3
22.5
20
11.4
8.1
4.2
0
Mexico
Japan
Turkey
60
40
21.6
18.3
16.9
20
12.9
7.7
3.7
0
Russia
Indonesia
South Africa
60
40
13.6
20
8.6
3.6
10.5
4.5
0.8
0
NOTE: THIS DATA WAS UNAVAILABLE FOR CHINA
AND SAUDI ARABIA
THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE: OUR WORLD IN DATA
G20 member nations ranked by share
of people vaccinated
share of population, data as of June 22
At least one dose
Fully vaccinated
Canada
Britain
U.S.
66.7
63.5
60
53.0
46.3
44.9
40
20
19.6
0
Italy
Germany
France
60
52.5
50.8
47.5
40
31.4
26.6
24.9
20
0
E.U.
India
Argentina
60
47.4
40
34.0
32.1
28.2
20
17.3
8.2
0
Brazil
South Korea
Australia
60
40
30.1
29.3
22.5
20
11.4
8.1
4.2
0
Mexico
Japan
Turkey
60
40
21.6
18.3
16.9
20
12.9
7.7
3.7
0
Russia
Indonesia
South Africa
60
40
13.6
20
8.6
3.6
10.5
4.5
0.8
0
NOTE: THIS DATA WAS UNAVAILABLE FOR CHINA
AND SAUDI ARABIA
THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE: OUR WORLD IN DATA
G20 member nations ranked by share of people vaccinated
share of population, data as of June 22
At least one dose
Fully vaccinated
Canada
Britain
United States
Italy
66.7
63.5
60
53.0
52.5
46.3
44.9
40
26.6
20
19.6
0
European Union
India
Germany
France
60
50.8
47.4
47.5
40
34.0
31.4
28.2
24.9
20
17.3
0
South Korea
Australia
Brazil
Argentina
60
40
32.1
30.1
29.3
22.5
20
11.4
8.1
4.2
8.2
0
Mexico
Japan
Russia
Turkey
60
40
21.6
18.3
20
16.9
13.6
12.9
7.7
10.5
3.7
0
Indonesia
South Africa
60
40
20
8.6
3.6
4.5
0
0.8
NOTE: THIS DATA WAS UNAVAILABLE FOR CHINA AND SAUDI ARABIA
THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE: OUR WORLD IN DATA
G20 member nations ranked by share of people vaccinated
share of population, data as of June 22
At least one dose
Fully vaccinated
Canada
Britain
United States
Italy
Germany
France
66.7
63.5
60
53.0
52.5
50.8
47.5
46.3
44.9
40
31.4
26.6
24.9
20
19.6
0
European Union
India
Argentina
South Korea
Australia
Brazil
60
47.4
40
34.0
30.1
32.1
29.3
22.5
28.2
20
17.3
11.4
8.1
4.2
8.2
0
Mexico
Japan
Russia
Indonesia
South Africa
Turkey
60
40
21.6
18.3
20
16.9
13.6
8.6
12.9
10.5
3.6
7.7
4.5
3.7
0
0.8
NOTE: THIS DATA WAS UNAVAILABLE FOR CHINA AND SAUDI ARABIA
THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE: OUR WORLD IN DATA
G20 member nations ranked by share of people vaccinated
share of population, data as of June 22
At least one dose
Fully vaccinated
Canada
Britain
United States
Italy
Germany
France
E.U.
India
Argentina
66.7
63.5
60
53.0
52.5
50.8
47.4
47.5
46.3
44.9
40
34.0
32.1
31.4
28.2
26.6
24.9
20
19.6
17.3
8.2
0
South Korea
Australia
Mexico
Japan
Russia
Indonesia
South Africa
Brazil
Turkey
60
40
30.1
29.3
22.5
21.6
18.3
16.9
20
13.6
8.6
12.9
11.4
10.5
3.6
8.1
7.7
4.2
4.5
3.7
0
0.8
NOTE: THIS DATA WAS UNAVAILABLE FOR CHINA AND SAUDI ARABIA
THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE: OUR WORLD IN DATA
Public-health experts say full immunizations have become crucial because of the rise of the Delta variant, which was first detected in India. Delta is up to 60 per cent more transmissible than the Alpha variant, which originated in Britain, and studies show that those infected are twice as likely to end up in hospital.
Delta is also slightly better at evading vaccines. A study by Public Health England showed that a single dose was 17 per cent less effective at preventing symptomatic illness when compared with Alpha results. However, PHE said two doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech or Oxford AstraZeneca vaccine provided more than 90-per-cent protection against severe illness. That’s why health experts have stressed the importance of full vaccination.
Why have vaccinations in the United States stalled? Wyoming
38%
Vermont
73%
Mississippi
Hawaii
35%
69%
Percent of people who received at least
one dose in the U.S.
40
50
60
70+
THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE: OUR WORLD IN DATA
Wyoming
38%
Vermont
73%
Mississippi
Hawaii
35%
69%
Percent of people who received at least
one dose in the U.S.
40
50
60
70+
THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE: OUR WORLD IN DATA
Wyoming
38%
Vermont
73%
Mississippi
35%
Hawaii
69%
Percent of people who received at least one dose in the U.S.
40
50
60
70+
THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE: OUR WORLD IN DATA
Wyoming
38%
Vermont
73%
Mississippi
35%
Hawaii
69%
Percent of people who received at least one dose in the U.S.
40
50
60
70+
THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE: OUR WORLD IN DATA
Wyoming
38%
Vermont
73%
Mississippi
35%
Hawaii
69%
Percent of people who received at least one dose in the U.S.
40
50
60
70+
THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE: OUR WORLD IN DATA
The mass vaccination campaign in the U.S. has slowed drastically, and a comparison of the wide variation in state-by-state inoculation rates suggests a stark reason why.
The map of vaccination levels is almost a perfect parallel of the electoral map. The most-vaccinated states are nearly all in the northeast or on the West Coast, with a smattering of places in between: New Mexico, Illinois, Colorado and Minnesota. All voted for Joe Biden in last year’s presidential election. At the front of the pack are Vermont (73 per cent of the entire population has received at least one shot), Massachusetts and Hawaii (69 per cent each).
By comparison, all but one of the 20 states with the lowest levels of vaccination went for Donald Trump. At the bottom are deeply conservative Mississippi (35 per cent), Louisiana (37 per cent) and Wyoming (38 per cent).
Concern over the pandemic has been one of the central issues in the country’s political divide. While Mr. Biden and his Democrats campaigned last year on tougher measures to fight the health crisis, Mr. Trump often played down COVID-19′s severity and pushed for fewer controls.
Pandemic restrictions are also lifting swiftly across the country – putting bars and restaurants at full capacity, for instance – with few requirements that anyone prove their vaccination status, removing one potential incentive to get the shots.
Over all, 65 per cent of adults and 53 per cent of the total population have received at least one dose. The country is currently administering about one million shots a day, down from the mid-April peak of 3.3 million. The White House said this week that Mr. Biden will miss his target of having 70 per cent of adults inoculated by July 4.
Some states have turned to lotteries in a bid to boost vaccinations. West Virginia, for example, is raffling off hunting rifles and shotguns to people who get jabbed.
Do we understand the full extent of the global pandemic? What are the rates of COVID-19 testing worldwide? Some people have argued that lower-income countries don’t deserve as many vaccines as others because they have lower rates of COVID-19 infection and death. This argument has been debunked by the recent surge of case numbers in India, South America and now Africa. It also ignores the lack of reliable data and testing shortages in many lower-income countries – which means that the world does not fully understand the extent of the pandemic.
COVID-19 testing rates around the world
tests completed per 1,000 people
Britain
Germany
750
2,900
10
50
100
250
500
1,000
Japan
Canada
Italy
U.S.
120
960
1,200
1,400
NOTE: NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR WHITE COLOURED COUNTRIES
THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE: OUR WORLD IN DATA
COVID-19 testing rates around the world
tests completed per 1,000 people
10
50
100
250
500
1,000
Japan
Germany
Canada
Italy
U.S.
Britain
120
750
960
1,200
1,400
2,900
NOTE: WHITE COLOURED COUNTRIES HAVE NO DATA AVAILABLE
THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE: OUR WORLD IN DATA
COVID-19 testing rates around the world
tests completed per 1,000 people
10
50
100
250
500
1,000
Japan
Germany
Canada
Italy
U.S.
Britain
960
120
750
1,200
1,400
2,900
NOTE: WHITE COLOURED COUNTRIES HAVE NO DATA AVAILABLE
THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE: OUR WORLD IN DATA
Studies of excess deaths have revealed a vast number of uncounted cases. In South Africa, the official pandemic death toll is about 59,000. But researchers have found more than 173,000 excess deaths in the same period, and they estimate that 85 per cent to 95 per cent were caused by the virus. This implies that the true number of deaths is almost three times higher than the official number. In India, the real number of COVID-19 deaths is estimated to be five times greater than the official toll of 390,000.
Detailed research in Zambia and Sudan has revealed huge levels of under-counting. When researchers studied corpses in a morgue in Zambia, they found that the true number of deaths from the virus was as much as 10 times higher than the official tally. The vast majority of the dead had never been tested for the virus.
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