THE post-pandemic recovery is looking strong. Many countries are reporting strong quarterly growth especially the developed ones. In line with the strong growth, the global economy is envisaged to remain in the recovery phase for the rest of the year. Global gross domestic product outlook for 2021 is projected at 6.0% while global trade is expected to grow by 16%.
Vaccination programmes across the globe have reduced the severity of Covid-19 infections, therefore allowing governments to ease the restrictions, and letting the economy breathe a little easier.
However, the improving economic outlook and signs of rising price pressure have raised market concerns that central banks may tighten their monetary policies. In addition, several US Federal Reserve (Fed) officials have expressed readiness to consider discussing tapering of asset purchases in the coming months.
Amid the improving economy outlook and surging price pressure, market players have started to price in the possibilities of central banks tightening their ultra-accommodative monetary policies. The Fed has expressed that it is ready to taper its US$120bil (RM502bil) bond-buying programme, possibly as early as during its next meeting in November. This could prompt other central banks to follow the tapering move by this year.
However, market concerns and uncertainties have persisted despite mixed economic data and dovish comments from major central banks. US weekly jobless claims rebounded after falling to March 2020 lows: indicating that the labour market has not stabilised while the third consecutive decline in pending home sales added to disappointing housing data.
On the commodities front, China has voiced concerns over the volatile and surging prices of raw materials and its willingness to contain the prices.
According to China’s 14th five-year plan (2021–2025), Beijing will strengthen price controls on iron ore, copper, corn and other major commodities to curb the abnormal fluctuations in prices.
To further regulate crude oil imports, China has asked its five state-owned companies to report their usage of imported oil over the past years, considering that they are the biggest oil importers in the world. China has pledged to attain carbon neutrality by 2060 by reducing its dependency on coal-generated energy.
Looking at the commodities’ price movements during the past two years, the post-pandemic profit accumulation may have started slowly in 2020 which suddenly turned into a “gold mine”. Due to the pick-up in demand globally, tightness in commodities gradually increased, and augmented with supply issues, causing a shortage and further pushing up the prices.The S&P GSCI, a commodity index, which consists of 24 exchange-traded futures contracts, soared 36% by the end of September, reflecting the current surging commodities prices.
Brent, for example, touched US$80 (RM334) per barrel on Sept 28 before settling at US$79 (RM330) by the end of the day. Also, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) ended around US$75 (RM313) per barrel. Year-to-date, Brent has surged by 53.5% while the WTI jumped 55.5% before closing at its highest point in three years. Besides, the rising trend in crude and natural gas prices may have been extended from the effects of Hurricane Ida, which hit the Gulf of Mexico’s energy production, dampening the supply side.
Another commodity, ethanol, has seen a 47.6% climb this year. The drop in demand last year had put pressure on the ethanol blending process, which helped to establish a low base for a price rally.
Meanwhile, natural gas recorded a more than seven-year high at US$5.84 (RM24.41) MMBtu and coal futures touched its highest point at US$202 (RM844) per tonne due to the ongoing energy crunch in Europe and China. The other commodity worth noting is lean-hogs, where high prices were driven by strong domestic and export demand, although demand is expected to soften for the rest of 2021 as shipments to China slowed down. Yea- to-date, lean-hog prices have soared by 120%.
As for lumber, by the end of September, prices have declined by 10.4% compared with the start of the year and after reaching its record high of US$1,670 (RM6,980) per 1,000 board feet in May. Currently, it is trading under US$900 (RM3,762). Supply chain logistic issues and building material shortages had resulted in lower lumber consumption.
Although the global economy is starting to recover and the adverse effects of the pandemic will gradually subside, a sudden increase in demand, paired with supply challenges, will continue to drive uncertainties. Hence, in the short to medium term, commodities’ prices will still be volatile.
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