The National Diet building (Mainichi/Masahiro Kawata)

       TOKYO -- As Japan braces for the House of Representatives election just a day away, the focal question is whether the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) can secure a single-party majority it has retained since the 2012 general election.

       The Oct. 31 vote will be popular judgment for the fledgling administration of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, as well as the previous administrations of prime ministers Yoshihide Suga and Shinzo Abe. The Mainichi Shimbun coverage of the election has shown that the ruling coalition of the LDP and Komeito is highly likely to retain a majority in the 465-seat lower house, but that the LDP may very well lose seats from its pre-election strength as numerous constituencies are closely contested by the ruling and opposition parties. The outcome of the election will inevitably impact Prime Minister and LDP president Kishida's management of his administration.

       A total of 1,051 candidates have thrown their hats in the ring for the race, with 857 in single-seat constituencies and 194 in proportional representation blocs. The figures exclude those who are running for both single-seat constituencies and proportional representation blocs. The candidates are vying for the 289 seats up for grabs in the single-seat constituencies and the 176 proportional representation seats, for a total of 465 seats. The general outcome of the poll is expected to become clear by the wee hours of Nov. 1.

       Prime Minister Kishida has set the victory-or-defeat threshold at whether the LDP-Komeito governing bloc can win a combined 233 seats, a simple majority necessary to keep the current administration in power. Before the election was officially announced, the LDP and Komeito had 276 and 29 seats, respectively, for a total of 305 seats in the lower chamber. The Mainichi coverage has found that there are chances Kishida's goal could be attained.

       A focal point now is whether the LDP can retain a single-party majority it has maintained since the 2012 general election. If the LDP manages to win 230 seats or so, even if seats gained by Komeito are added up, it will become questionable whether the ruling parties can secure the 261-seat absolute stable majority, which would allow them to preside over all of the lower house's standing committees while securing a majority in each committee.

       Both the ruling and opposition are scrambling to boost voter support for their candidates in closely contested constituencies across the country. On Oct. 29, Prime Minister Kishida toured Kagoshima and Miyazaki prefectures in southwest Japan's Kyushu, as well as Chiba Prefecture east of Tokyo, to campaign for candidates backed by the ruling camp and to ask for greater support from the electorate. On Oct. 30, the day before voting day, Kishida was to make his final appeal for support in Tokyo's Oimachi district. His Komeito counterpart, Natsuo Yamaguchi, campaigned across Tokyo on Oct. 29.

       The main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP), and the fellow opposition Japanese Communist Party, the Democratic Party for the People, Reiwa Shinsengumi and the Social Democratic Party have unified their candidates in 213 single-seat constituencies to counter ruling bloc candidates. CDP leader Yukio Edano campaigned in Hokkaido, Japan's northern prefecture, and Tokyo to appeal for a change of government on Oct. 29. Representatives of the other four parties also attempted to cultivate more votes in their respective priority electoral zones.

       The conservative opposition Nippon Ishin no Kai (Japan Innovation Party), which has kept a distance from other opposition parties, is aiming to increase seats largely from its 11 pre-election seats. The party fighting against NHK in the trial for violating Article 72 of the Attorney Act also aspires to secure seats in the election.

       (Japanese original by Yoshitaka Koyama, Political News Department)

       Font Size S M L Print Timeline 0