The perception of Russia in Europe is not so great, and not all countries are ready to consider the prospect of full-scale cooperation with it. Meanwhile, the shift of the global center towards Asia is highlighting the need for a fully-fledged economic, technological and, in the long-term perspective, political alliance with Russia.

       Valdaiclub.com interview with Arnaud Dubien, Head of the French-Russian Analytical Center “Observatory”.

       Attitudes towards Russia in the European Union (EU) are contradictory. Some countries want to build Europe together with Russia and see no alternative to this policy, while others do not want to let Russia into a "common European home." Is it possible to reconcile these two trends?

       The division of Europe into “old” and “new” was first made by former US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld. The Old Europe includes the countries that stand for comprehensive development of their relations with Russia: Germany, France, Italy and the Benelux countries. The latter are recalled less frequently, but they share this view. The New Europe unites “new arrivals” that are skeptical and sometimes hostile towards Russia. But there are changes in this respect as well. Take Poland, for one. When Rumsfeld stated the division of Europe in 2003, Poland was clearly at loggerheads with Russia. Neo-conservative and pro-American attitudes prevailed among the local elite. Poland is the most important country in the east of the EU in terms of size, economic weight and political influence. We are witnessing normalization and gradual improvement in its relations with Russia, and this sets the tone for EU foreign policy and opens up new vistas. We do not need any division in the approach to Russia. We are welcoming what is happening between Poland and Russia and hope that other countries of the New Europe will follow suit. It goes without saying that normalization is largely linked with the change of political leadership in Poland. It started even before the Smolensk tragedy, in Gdansk on September 1, 2009 when Putin made a speech at the events devoted to the commemoration of the 70th anniversary since the outbreak of World War II. Needless to say, some contradictions are still there and will always be there, but normalization between Poland and Russia and the new tone of their relations are inspiring us with hope.

       At a meeting with members of the Valdai International Discussion Club , President Vladimir Putin expressed his disappointment with Europe. He was clear about the impossibility of Russia joining the EU. What is the EU's foreign policy with regards to the European East?

       Today Europeans are against any prospect of EU expansion. I don’t think Turkey has a chance of joining the EU and Ankara seems to understand this. Turkey has given up on the idea because of the prevailing attitudes in Europe. Heated debates are still ongoing, but I think the issue of expansion is over. Of course, nobody in Brussels will say this, but politically the idea is dead. Ukraine will not join the EU either.

       As for Russia, it does not want to join the EU. It has never applied for membership and its "Europeanness" has remained at the level of reflection and theories of experts and political leaders.

       Russia and Turkey are two former empires in the East of Europe and at the same time two very important countries for Europe. For Russia, entry into the EU would mean very serious changes, primarily the loss of sovereignty. The Putin-proposed political project for Russia is aimed at enhancing its sovereignty, and in this sense the political culture of Russia is similar to that of the United States. Sovereignty is above all. Meanwhile, the European project is built on the delimitation of powers in the economy and policy.

       Is Russia capable of creating an independent integration space around it? What do you think about the Eurasian Union project?

       I don’t see anything new in the idea of uniting the post-Soviet space around Russia. Then Foreign Minister Andrei Kozyrev and Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov spoke about this in the 1990s. However, Russia has not made much progress along this road. It has not gone far in the union state project with Belarus either. The very configuration of the post-Soviet space – a number of countries around an enormous state that evokes fear or skepticism – makes this process difficult for objective reasons. The EU-style equilibrium between different players is impossible in the post-Soviet space, even in principle. The project is logical economically, but it is important to realize that the elite of the countries that have agreed to join the Customs Union are not too interested in Russia. They are looking elsewhere as well. Yes, Russia is undergoing reforms, but it has not yet become a powerful magnet. Ukraine is the main problem, because if it does not join the Eurasian Union, the union will not be complete. Meanwhile, Ukraine is refusing to join it, even under its current leadership, which is not anti-Russian by any stretch of imagination. Russia has no choice but to try to build support around its region. Therefore, the project is interesting but it remains difficult to implement. Different countries have different potentials. The economy of Belarus is a far cry from that of Kazakhstan. Their economic priorities are not the same, either. On top of all that there is the main problem – the absence of Ukraine.

       Does Russia have any serious plans regarding Europe? What can Russia offer Europe?

       Russia is offering its market and may offer its technology, resources and ideas in a number of spheres. Today, the problem is rooted in Europe. The EU is in crisis, although I think Russia is exaggerating the gravity of it and is giving up on Europe too soon. Now the Europeans are preoccupied with their own problems, rather than debates on remote prospects and cooperation with Russia. This is probably a bad thing. I’m sure cooperation with Russia could help resolve some of the problems. The perception of Russia in Europe is not so great, and to be honest, not all countries are ready to consider the prospect of full-scale cooperation with it. Meanwhile, the shift of the global center towards Asia is highlighting the need for a fully-fledged economic, technological and, in the long-term perspective, political alliance with Russia. We need such an alliance but not everyone understands this. Russia and the EU would receive enormous advantages from an ambitious project of cooperation. I don’t know what shape it can take. Russia’s accession to the EU or the EU's entry into Russia is hardly a solution. We don’t need a rigid structure, but we do need closer cooperation than the Roadmap plan provides. Russia and the EU complement each other, and this is especially obvious from an external point of view, for example, from Asia. Both Russia and the EU have many common interests, but this does not translate into reality because of inertia, history, etc. So the issue is very serious and should make us change our stance on this.

       Views expressed are of individual Members and Contributors, rather than the Club's, unless explicitly stated otherwise.