A powerful cold front is about to blast into the Washington region, sending temperatures plummeting and setting us up for our first potential coating of snow this season. Believe it or not, the District has a chance to see its first measurable snow before Denver does.
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This is a minor event but, as it will coincide with the morning commute, could create a little mischief.
In terms of accumulation, a coating of up to an inch of snow seems most likely throughout the region. Although we’ll have to see if anything sticks to the roads, we could have some slick spots, especially in our colder areas north and west of the Capital Beltway if there’s a period of steady snow.
Inside the Beltway and in our eastern areas, any accumulation would more likely occur on surfaces like mulch, cars, decks and shaded grassy areas, unless the snow really comes down.
The snow could mix with a little rain or sleet, especially in our milder areas, as it first moves in and as it exits. The best chance for steady snow is between about 8 and 11 a.m.
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The ceiling for this event seems to be about 1 to 3 inches if everything comes together. If you’re eager for snow, manage expectations, because it’s just about as probable that we won’t see any accumulation. Areas north and west of Fairfax, Rockville and Manassas have the best chance to see at least an inch.
Any snow will move through quickly, arriving within a couple of hours of sunrise and probably exiting by midday or early afternoon. What falls won’t last, as temperatures will probably rise to near 40 on Wednesday afternoon. We’ll try to fine-tune this forecast Tuesday, as we’ll probably have some tweaks to the timing and predicted amounts.
Based on available information, we see this ranking as a Category 1 on our winter storm impact scale, at the highest.
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What are the models showing?
The American (GFS and NAM) and Canadian models are predicting a steady period of snow Wednesday morning, cooling air and ground temperatures to near freezing and allowing for some accumulation, especially in our colder areas. But the European (ECMWF and UKMet) models suggest that the snow will be lighter and more patchy, which would probably mean temperatures mostly staying above freezing and limiting or even eliminating accumulation.
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Here’s how much snow the different models are projecting for the District:
GFS: 2.8 inches High-resolution Canadian: 2.4 inches Canadian: 1.6 inches NAM: 0.8 inches UKMet: 0.7 inches High-resolution NAM: 0.6 inches ECMWF: 0.1 inches
Air and ground temperatures will probably be above freezing at times Wednesday; the accumulations shown here make the incorrect assumption that all snow will stick. If we correct for that, actual totals would probably be at least 25 percent lower, except in the mountains.
Some of the models show the greatest snow potential east of Washington and some to the west; we’d lean more to the west because temperatures will be colder there, so more of the snow would tend to stick.
The National Weather Service, as we do, favors the lower amounts shown by the models, predicting less than one inch throughout the region. But it says there’s about a 10 percent chance that totals could reach one to two inches.
The bottom line is that we will probably see some light snow, but our confidence in meaningful accumulation is low. We expect this to be a minor event, but one that is worth monitoring as the forecast is still coming into focus.