Open this photo in gallery
Montreal, Sept. 21: Prime Minister Justin Trudeau takes a selfie with a supporter at the Jarry Metro station the morning after his Liberal Party won a new minority government.
Carlos Osorio/Reuters
Table of contents Canada’s election results so far When will mail-in ballots be counted? What next for Justin Trudeau and the Liberals? What next for Erin O’Toole and the Conservatives? What next for the NDP, Bloc and Green parties? People’s Party: No breakthrough for far right More election reading
Election 2021: Latest updates Justin Trudeau didn’t get the Liberal majority he hoped for in Monday’s election, but with 158 seats – leading or elected – the party is set to govern in a 44th Parliament that looks largely the same as the 43rd. In the coming days and weeks, Mr. Trudeau is likely to face questions from his caucus about whether the snap election was worth it, but on election night he focused on what he called the “clear direction” from voters to stay on a progressive course. Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole said he’s willing to lead the party in the next election, while the NDP’s Jagmeet Singh told voters, “You can count on New Democrats to continue fighting for you.” Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-Fran？ois Blanchet said he’d stay committed “to do more, to do better,” while the Green Party’s Annamie Paul, who lost her bid for a seat, called for healing in a “more divided and more polarized” country than the one before the election. The parties may be at a stalemate nationally, but at the regional and local level, some clear winners and losers emerged. Two Liberal cabinet ministers weren’t re-elected; a Green defector to the Liberals won in Fredericton; and Conservatives made gains in the Maritimes, but lost some Alberta seats to progressive parties. (Return to top)
Canada’s election results so far
Before and after: Seats by party at dissolution vs. seats currently leading or elected
Before
After
Majority: 170
155
Liberal
158
119
Cons.
119
32
BQ
34
24
NDP
25
2
Green
2
5
Ind.
0
THE GLOBE AND MAIL
Before and after: Seats by party at dissolution vs. seats currently leading or elected
Before
After
Majority: 170
155
Liberal
158
119
Cons.
119
32
BQ
34
24
NDP
25
2
Green
2
5
Ind.
0
THE GLOBE AND MAIL
Before and after: Seats by party at dissolution vs. seats currently leading or elected
Before
After
Majority: 170
155
Liberal
158
119
Cons.
119
32
BQ
34
24
NDP
25
2
Green
2
5
Ind.
0
THE GLOBE AND MAIL
To form a majority, a party needs 170 or more MPs in the 338-member House of Commons. As of midday Tuesday, the seat-holding parties were leading or elected in more or less the same number of seats they had when Parliament was dissolved on Aug. 15. At least part of that can be explained by seats where Independent MPs booted from the Liberal and Conservative caucuses didn’t run for re-election. In other cases, a party’s victories in some regions only offset their losses in others.
The count likely won’t be final until Wednesday, when Elections Canada expects to finish tallying mail-in ballots (more on that later), but since most races were won by wide enough margins to be called Monday night, the overall outcome – a Liberal minority – is assured.
In the meantime, check The Globe and Mail’s results page to see the latest numbers. Under the “ridings by category” section, you can sort by province to see whether your riding or others near it are still up in the air.
Regional breakdown of seats won
by each political party
As of 12 p.m. ET
B.C.
PRAIRIES
15
Liberal
51
Cons.
13
Cons.
6
Liberal
13
NDP
5
NDP
1
Green
ONTARIO
QUEBEC
34
BQ
78
Liberal
33
Liberal
37
Cons.
5
NDP
10
Cons.
1
Green
1
NDP
ATLANTIC
TERRITORIES
24
Liberal
2
Liberal
8
Cons.
1
NDP
THE GLOBE AND MAIL
Regional breakdown of seats won
by each political party
As of 12 p.m. ET
B.C.
PRAIRIES
15
Liberal
51
Cons.
13
Cons.
6
Liberal
13
NDP
5
NDP
1
Green
ONTARIO
QUEBEC
78
Liberal
34
BQ
37
Cons.
33
Liberal
5
NDP
10
Cons.
1
Green
1
NDP
ATLANTIC
TERRITORIES
24
Liberal
2
Liberal
8
Cons.
1
NDP
THE GLOBE AND MAIL
Regional breakdown of seats won
by each political party
As of 12 p.m. ET
B.C.
PRAIRIES
ONTARIO
15
Liberal
51
Cons.
78
Liberal
13
Cons.
6
Liberal
37
Cons.
13
NDP
5
NDP
5
NDP
1
Green
1
Green
TERRITORIES
QUEBEC
ATLANTIC
2
Liberal
34
BQ
24
Liberal
1
NDP
33
Liberal
8
Cons.
10
Cons.
1
NDP
THE GLOBE AND MAIL
Which regions changed hands the most? Atlantic Canada: The Conservatives’ efforts to flip ridings in the Maritimes appeared to pay off somewhat. By Tuesday, Tories were leading or elected in eight ridings, up from four in 2019 and zero in 2015, but most seats remained with the Liberals. In Fredericton, Jenica Atwin – who ran successfully as a Green in 2019, then crossed over to the Liberals this year – is ahead in a close race with Conservative candidate Andrea Johnson. Alberta: Most of the province is still Conservative blue, but two urban ridings switched to progressive parties (Calgary Skyview to the Liberals and Edmonton Griesbach to the NDP), while a third seat, Edmonton Centre, is too close to call. NDP incumbent Healther McPherson kept her riding of Edmonton Strathcona. A possible reason for the Liberal and NDP gains is Alberta’s contentious COVID-19 response: United Conservative Premier Jason Kenney long resisted introducing a vaccine passport system, and Mr. O’Toole encouraged that course; now that caseloads are rising again, so has anger at their conservative parties. Notable candidates who won and lost Open this photo in gallery
Fisheries Minister Bernadette Jordan speaks at the keel-laying ceremony of the future HMCS William Hall in Halifax this past Feburary.
Andrew Vaughan/The Canadian Press
Losers Bernadette Jordan and Maryam Monsef: Two of Mr. Trudeau’s cabinet ministers (fisheries and women and gender equality, respectively) lost their seats to Conservatives (in Nova Scotia and Ontario, respectively). Ms. Jordan was the Trudeau government’s point person in the contentious Mi’kmaq fishery dispute, while Ms. Monsef, an Afghan-Canadian MP, was criticized for the way she worded an appeal to the Taliban to let refugees leave Afghanistan. Avi Lewis: A New Democrat star candidate, who is author Naomi Klein’s husband and the son of former Ontario NDP leader Stephen Lewis, fell into third place in a West Vancouver riding. Open this photo in gallery
Leslyn Lewis speaks at a French-language Conservative leadership debate in June of 2020.
Frank Gunn/The Canadian Press
Winners Leslyn Lewis: A lawyer who reached third place in the 2020 Conservative leadership campaign, Ms. Lewis kept Ontario’s Haldimand-Norfolk riding in the Tory fold after incumbent and Harper-era cabinet minister Diane Finley quit in May. Mike Morrice: The Green candidate in Kitchener Centre took the lead in the Ontario riding where the Liberal incumbent, Raj Saini, halted his campaign amid sexual-misconduct allegations that he denies. The popular vote It won’t be clear until all the votes are counted how many Canadians supported each party, but according to the results so far, the Trudeau Liberals won with a smaller share of the popular vote than any other winning party before them.
10 Canadian federal elections won by lowest share of the popular vote, by winning party
*2021 figure is as of 12 p.m. ET
Liberal
Conservative / Progressive Conservative
1957 1972 1997 2008 1962 2004 2006 1979 2019 2021 32.0% 33.1 35.9 36.3 36.7 37.3 37.6 38.5 38.5 39.0 THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE: simon fraser university
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Year Liberal Conservative / Progressive Conservative 2021 32 0 2019 33.10 0 1979 0 35.90 2006 0 36.30 2004 36.70 0 1962 0 37.30 2008 0 37.60 1997 38.50 0 1972 38.50 0 1957 0 39.00
10 Canadian federal elections won by lowest share of the popular vote, by winning party download csv
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Canadian federal elections history
Percentage of popular vote, by winning party (*2021 figure is as of 12 p.m. ET)
Liberal
Conservative / Progressive Conservative
0 10 20 30 40 50 60% 1867 1874 1882 1891 1900 1908 1917 1925 1930 1940 1949 1957 1962 1965 1972 1979 1984 1993 2000 2006 2011 2019 __undefined__ 50.00 THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE: simon fraser university; canadian elections database
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Year Liberal Conservative / Progressive Conservative 1867-01-01 50.00 1872-01-01 49.90 1874-01-01 53.80 1878-01-01 53.20 1882-01-01 53.40 1887-01-01 50.70 1891-01-01 52.00 1896-01-01 45.10 1900-01-01 52.00 1904-01-01 52.50 1908-01-01 50.60 1911-01-01 51.20 1917-01-01 57.00 1921-01-01 40.70 1925-01-01 46.60 1926-01-01 43.60 1930-01-01 49.0 1935-01-01 44.40 1940-01-01 51.20 1945-01-01 41.40 1949-01-01 50.10 1953-01-01 50.00 1957-01-01 39.00 1958-01-01 53.70 1962-01-01 37.30 1963-01-01 41.70 1965-01-01 39.80 1968-01-01 45.50 1972-01-01 38.50 1974-01-01 43.20 1979-01-01 35.90 1980-01-01 44.30 1984-01-01 50.00 1988-01-01 43.00 1993-01-01 41.30 1997-01-01 38.50 2000-01-01 40.80 2004-01-01 36.70 2006-01-01 36.30 2008-01-01 37.60 2011-01-01 39.60 2015-01-01 39.50 2019-01-01 33.10 2021-01-01 32.0
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(Return to top)
When will mail-in ballots be counted? Because of COVID-19 restrictions and the delays they were expected to cause on election day, more Canadians than ever before voted by mail or in advance polls. Elections Canada was ready for the surge but decided to start counting mail-in ballots on Tuesday so officials could check that those voters didn’t also vote in person. That process could take days, depending on the riding, but the agency expects most of the work to be done by Wednesday. Here are Elections Canada’s live estimates of how many special ballots have been counted in each riding to date.
(Return to top)
What next for Justin Trudeau and the Liberals? Open this photo in gallery
Mr. Trudeau leaves the Fairmount Queen Elizabeth Hotel in Montreal after delivering his victory speech.
ANDREJ IVANOV/AFP via Getty Images
When Mr. Trudeau called the election in mid-August, it was a calculated risk that the Liberals, who then looked strong in public opinion polls, would emerge with a majority, as many provincial governing parties did when they held elections during the pandemic. It didn’t work, and while the Liberals are no worse off than before, Mr. Trudeau will face questions from the public, the opposition and potentially his own caucus about why the snap election was necessary. He didn’t address those questions in his speech Monday night, focusing instead on the millions who supported the Liberals:
You are sending us back to work with a clear mandate to get Canada through this pandemic, and to the brighter days ahead – and my friends, that's exactly what we are ready to do. There are still votes to be counted. But what we've seen tonight is that millions of Canadians have chosen a progressive plan. Some have talked about division, but that's not what I see. That's not what I've seen these past weeks, across the country. I see Canadians, standing together.
(Return to top)
What next for Erin O’Toole and the Conservatives?
Watch: Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole speaks to supporters on Monday night, criticized the snap election and vowing to lead the Tories in the next campaign. The Globe and Mail
When Mr. O’Toole became leader, many in the party hoped his shift to the centre (and away from the socially conservative, anti-carbon-tax rhetoric of his predecessor, Andrew Scheer) would break the Liberal minority. It didn’t work, but Mr. O’Toole told Conservatives on election night that he is ready to regroup for the next campaign:
A few months ago, I told Conservatives that our party needed the courage to change because Canada has changed. Over the past 36 days, we have demonstrated to Canadians that we have set out on a path to engage more Canadians in our Conservative movement. ... In the months ahead, as Mr. Trudeau gears up for yet another election, we must continue this journey to welcoming more Canadians to take another look at our party.
(Return to top)
What next for the NDP, Bloc and Greens?
Watch: NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh pledged to 'continue fighting' for issues he says are important to Canadians. The Canadian Press
NDP For the past two years, the New Democrats kept the Trudeau Liberals in power in exchange for progressive concessions on legislation. In this election, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh’s goal was to get a significant boost in seats, and hence leverage, by promising stronger action on climate policy and child care than what the Liberals proposed. It didn’t work; the party’s standing is only slightly better than before. On Monday night, Mr. Singh assured voters that the party’s campaign slogan, “Fighting for you,” would hold true in a minority Parliament:
I want to thank Canadians for voting. And I want to let Canadians know that you can count on New Democrats to continue fighting for you. As we fought for you in the pandemic when times were difficult, when people were struggling ... we were there for you.
Open this photo in gallery
Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-Fran？ois Blanchet speaks at his election night event in Montreal.
Bernard Brault/Reuters
Bloc On the campaign trail, Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-Fran？ois Blanchet said his dream was to win 40 of Quebec’s 78 ridings. It didn’t work – as of midday Tuesday, the separatist party was leading or elected in 34 ridings, up from 32 before dissolution – and ridings that Bloc candidates hoped to take from federalists, such as Liberal-held Sherbrooke, remained out of reach. As results came in on election night, Mr. Blanchet told supporters he was proud of the issues he’d campaigned for and would carry on:
We still have, with a positive approach, with confidence, the duty to do more, to do better.
Open this photo in gallery
Green Leader Annamie Paul greets supporters at Toronto's Berkeley Fieldhouse on election night.
Fred Lum/The Globe and Mail
Greens This campaign was a war on multiple fronts for the Greens, who had seen a high-profile MP defect to the Liberals and a messy internal dispute about racism and Middle East policy. Leader Annamie Paul spent most of the campaign in Toronto Centre, where she hoped to gain a seat. It didn’t work, but as of Tuesday the party was on track for the same number of seats as before, with Mike Morrice in the lead in Kitchener Centre. Ms. Paul stressed the need to bridge divides between Canadians after the election:
So we are now back to the status quo, except we are returning, unfortunately, more divided and more polarized than before this election was called. We need to repair these divisions.
(Return to top)
People’s Party: No seats, but a surge in the popular vote Open this photo in gallery
Maxime Bernier of the People's Party of Canada speaks at a Sept. 16 protest rally outside CBC headquarters in Toronto.
Chris Helgren/Reuters
Maxime Bernier’s far-right party hoped it would get its first seat in this election. It didn’t work, though its share of the popular vote increased to 5 per cent from 2 per cent in 2019. Mr. Bernier – whose party was criticized throughout the campaign for spreading COVID-19 misinformation, promoting anti-immigration policies that won praise from white nationalists and calling Mr. Trudeau a “fascist psychopath” – said the popular vote was a “huge victory” that the PPC would build on:
We’re the only real conservative option for this country. This party will grow – we’re here to stay.
(Return to top)
More election reading The Decibel podcast
Opinion: Power and politics Robyn Urback: If this election was a test of leadership, all of them failed
Andrew Coyne: A battle between fear and loathing that both sides lost
John Ibbitson: O’Toole tried to refashion the Conservative movement and deserves another chance to lead
Gary Mason: O’Toole and Conservatives brace for an ugly war over his shift to the left
Campbell Clark: Trudeau had just enough resilience to return to office, but doubts about his intentions remain
Editorial: Trudeau bet the electorate would reward him with a majority. Things did not go according to plan
Opinion: The economic stakes Patrick Brethour: All parties failed to provide a plan to tackle Canada’s economic malaise
Rob Carrick: New taxes, daycare and help for home buyers: How Liberal election promises will affect your finances
Explainers: The big issues The 12 key economic challenges facing the next government
Platform guide: compare where the parties stood on child care, mandatory vaccinations, the economy and more
Polls: The public’s pulse What the Nanos-Globe-CTV numbers said ahead of Sept. 20's vote
Slim majority of Canadians open to paying more to help cut Canada’s emissions, poll shows
Almost half of Canadians disapprove of Trudeau government’s handling of Afghanistan evacuations
(Return to top)
Compiled by Globe staff
With reports from Krisky Kirkup, Marieke Walsh, Laura Stone, Bill Curry, Robert Fife, Steven Chase, Ian Bailey, Carrie Tait, Justine Hunter, Karen Howlett, Menaka Raman-Wilms, Kathryn Blaze Baum and The Canadian Press