All eyes will be on the monetary policy committee (MPC) as the rate-setting body meets on February 6-8, days after the Interim Budget presentation. The committee has largely been unanimous in its decision on rate and stance since its inception in October 2016.
The first MPC formulated policies between October 2016 and August 2020.
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The second MPC, with three new external members, was established in October 2020. External MPC members have a fixed tenure of four years, which cannot be extended. Michael Patra is the only member who has been part of the MPC since its inception, first as a Reserve Bank of India central board-nominated member when he was the executive director, and then as the deputy governor in charge of monetary policy.
The first MPC determined the outcomes of 24 monetary policies, while the second MPC has held 21 meetings so far. All internal members of the current MPC voted unanimously, both in terms of rate action and stance, in all 21 policies. On rates, internal members voted differently on five occasions in the first MPC. Regarding the stance, data available since October 2018 shows that the first MPC internal members voted unanimously. Voting patterns were much more varied among external MPC members.
In the second MPC, external members voted differently three times on setting the policy repo rate. In the first MPC, external members voted differently on 11 occasions on the rate. Concerning the stance, the second MPC voted differently on 13 occasions.
External member Jayanth Varma, a professor at the Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, voted against a resolution on most occasions. In the first MPC, external members were not unanimous on three occasions on stance, for which data is available since October 2018. The present MPC comprises RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das, Deputy Governor Michael Patra, and executive director Rajiv Ranjan as internal members; and Ashima Goyal, Jayanth R Varma, and Shashanka Bhide as external members.
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