PETALING JAYA: Investors are expected to tread cautiously in the Malaysian stock market this month after some window-dressing activities that helped lift equities in December 2021, according to CGS-CIMB Research.
The brokerage attributed the cautious tone to potential headwinds in the form of new Covid-19 waves; foreign fund outflows due to tapering by the United States Federal Reserve (Fed); and corporate earnings risks due to higher taxes, flooding and political tensions.
It reiterated the high probability of the 15th General Election being held this year.
“However, the downside could be capped by expectations of stronger economic growth as Malaysia reopens international borders, following the lifting of the inter-state travel ban since Oct 11, 2021.
“This is coupled with additional liquidity available for domestic institutional funds such as the Employees Provident Fund, following the end of the various one-off withdrawal schemes under stimulus packages announced in 2020 and 2021,” CGS-CIMB Research said.
“The FBM KLCI is trading at undemanding valuations,” it added, noting that at a forward price-earnings of 14.6 times, the benchmark index was trading at close to 1.5 standard deviation below its three-year mean.
Based on FBM KLCI’s historical data, the performance is likely mixed this month.
CGS-CIMB Research pegged the psychological level at 1,500 for the FBM KLCI, which it said might also act as a support in the near term, followed by 1,483 and 1,452 points.
CGS-CIMB Research pegged the psychological level at 1,500 for the FBM KLCI, which it said might also act as a support in the near term, followed by 1,483 and 1,452 points.
The FBM KLCI rose 3.5% month-on-month in December 2021 to close at 1,568, thanks to window-dressing activities and the government’s decision to extend foreign source income tax exemption and reinstate a higher stamp duty cap on share transactions.
“For January 2022, we expect more sideways movements as the index continues on its base-building phase,” it said.
The brokerage said for this month, investors’ attention will be on several issues involving the economic, corporate and political areas.
“Investors will be focusing on the first Monetary Policy Committee meeting of Bank Negara for the year on Jan 19-20. Also in focus will be the first US Federal Open Market Committee meeting for the new year on Jan 25-26.
“Market watchers will also be on the lookout for newsflows on the ongoing flooding in Malaysia and its potential impact on the economy,” it said.
CGS-CIMB Research said investors would be watching the potential impact of the floods on corporates earnings. “Investors will also seek further clarification of the recent decision to extend the tax exemption for foreign source income for individuals and foreign source dividend income for corporates for another five years.
“Also in focus will be how the Omicron variant will impact reopening plans and plans for intake of new foreign workers,” it said.
“They will also keep an eye on the global Covid-19 situation and how the Omicron variant will impact border-reopening plans. Also in focus will be global inflation, the Evergrande debt crisis and geopolitical risks,” it added.
In the political arena, CGS-CIMB Research said investors would be closely watching any newsflows on talks of a potential Cabinet reshuffling.
“Also in focus will be whether the Johor state government will call for a state election due to its razor-thin, one-seat majority in government following the death of Datuk Osman Sapian,” it added.
For the full-year, CGS-CIMB Research has maintained its end-2022 FBM KLCI target at 1,612 points.