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       A moisture-filled storm is set to soak the D.C. region Sunday into Sunday night. It could drop about 1.5 to 3 inches of rain locally and across much of the Mid-Atlantic.

       At the height of the storm, which appears to be a Sunday-evening event, heavy rainfall near or over 1 inch in six hours is possible as a cold front comes through the area. That kind of intensity could lead to at least isolated flooding, although the dry conditions that have dominated much of this year should blunt that risk.

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       In the mountains to the west, the second plowable snow in less than a week is likely after the rain transitions to snow behind the cold front. There could also be a few flakes closer to D.C. as the precipitation winds down.

       Storm timeline for D.C. area

       Pre-dawn to 7 a.m. Sunday — A chance of light and scattered showers builds, especially west. Temperatures: 40s to near 50. 7 a.m. to 1 p.m. Sunday — Showers increase in coverage, still scattered and light to moderate. Temperatures: 50s to past 60. 1 p.m. to 7 p.m. Sunday — Rain becomes steadier and heavier, especially west and toward evening. Winds turn gustier. Temperatures: Rising into low to mid-60s, then falling into the 50s. 7 p.m. Sunday to 1 a.m. Monday — Rain is moderate to heavy at times, isolated flooding possible. Gusty winds. Temperatures: Falling into 40s. 1 a.m. to 7 a.m. Monday — Rain winds down from west to east, and may end as snow even locally. Gusty winds. Temperatures: Falling into low and mid-30s.

       Detailed forecast

       A potent dip in the jet stream will push a powerful cold front toward the D.C. area Sunday. As the front moves to the East Coast, an area of low pressure is forecast to develop along it.

       The storm is expected to produce a soaking as it taps into abundant moisture streaming northward from the tropics. There could be thunderstorms as well, given the unseasonably high moisture levels and mild air sneaking in ahead of the front. Odds of thunder are better south and east of D.C., especially down in southeast Virginia, but there’s a chance here, too.

       Temperatures start off relatively mild Sunday morning, near 50 to the mid-50s, and could surge into the low to mid-60s for a time in the afternoon. Temperatures are likely to fall rapidly through the 50s into the 40s during the evening, perhaps dropping about 25 degrees or more in a couple of hours, before bottoming out in the upper 30s and low 40s overnight.

       As temperatures plummet, rain may change to snow before the precipitation ends. The best odds of a dusting or light coating mainly on grass are west of Interstate 95 — especially west of Route 15, which runs north-south between Frederick and Haymarket through Leesburg — as lows reach the low and mid-30s (but remain mostly above freezing).

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       Winds are out of the south around 10 to 20 mph for most of the day, being strongest toward afternoon and evening. Gusts are probably around 30 to 35 mph as the front closes in Sunday evening and could reach near or over 40 mph as the front itself moves through. More gusty winds are also a good bet behind the storm on Monday.

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       Although the latest federal drought monitor still classifies most of the D.C. area as abnormally dry or in moderate drought, rain has come more frequently in recent weeks, so soils are not as dry as they had been. Plenty of rain can still be absorbed, though, so any flash flood risk is probably focused near urban areas or in small streams. Clearing leaves and debris from storm drains and gutters is always a good idea before the potential for heavy rain.

       More mountain snow

       Better odds of accumulating snow again focus in the mountains of West Virginia and western Maryland, perhaps as close as the Blue Ridge. These spots should also see a good deal of rain, on the order of 1 to 1.5 inches, before a change to snow.

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       Snow becomes dominant in the high country after dark Sunday and lasts into Monday. The National Weather Service expects several inches of snow on the ground by Monday morning, with more likely to accumulate during the day. Weather models suggest as much as 10 inches may fall in the highest spots.

       This comes on the heels of a 3-to-6-inch snowfall in the high terrain earlier this week, and totals of a foot or more in November in some spots. This storm may have seasonal tallies in some locations approaching 2 feet.

       Diminishing drought

       While long-term dry conditions persist, the worst of the drought in the Mid-Atlantic has been knocked back in recent weeks.

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       Washington has picked up 3.3 inches of rain since Nov. 20, which is about double the average for the period. This next storm will only push that number higher and potentially significantly so.

       El Ni？o winters, like the one we are entering, are often wet in the southern part of the country and into the Mid-Atlantic. We are anticipating an active weather pattern this winter that should ultimately bring heightened snow chances.

       Dan Stillman contributed to this report.

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