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RBI Guv says Trump tariffs will have negative impact on net exports
2025-04-09 00:00:00.0     商业标准报-经济和政策     原网页

       

       RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said that the new financial year has commenced amid global economic uncertainty, with the central bank closely monitoring inflation risks stemming from these developments. His remarks follow the recent decision by the Donald Trump administration to impose reciprocal tariffs on Indian exports.

       In an address to announce the decisions made by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) on Wednesday, the Governor said, "First and foremost, uncertainty in itself dampens growth by affecting investment and spending decisions both of businesses and households. Second, the dent on global growth due to trade frictions will also impede domestic growth. Third, higher tariffs shall have a negative impact on net exports. "

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       "The impact of relative tariffs, our relative tariffs vis some of the other countries are quite low. Then there is the unknown of the elasticities of our export and import demand and the policy measures adopted by us. India is very vigorously and proactively engaging with the US administration on the foreign trade agreement...," he further said.

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       While he acknowledged that it is currently challenging to gauge the precise impact of international events on India’s economic performance, he emphasised the RBI’s confidence in managing domestic growth effectively.

       He also highlighted positive trends in the agriculture sector and a revival in manufacturing. "Services sector continues to show resilience. Urban consumption is picking up with uptick in discretionary spending," he said, noting that the financial health of banks and corporates remains "healthy".

       RBI cuts repo rate by 25 bps to 6%

       The Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has unanimously opted to cut the repo rate by 25 basis points, bringing it down to 6 per cent, RBI Governor Malhotra announced on Wednesday. This is the second rate reduction in 2025, following a previous cut in February when the rate was brought down from 6.5 per cent to 6.25 per cent — the first such move in nearly five years.

       Alongside the repo rate adjustment, the standing deposit facility (SDF) rate has been revised to 5.75 per cent from 6 per cent, while the marginal standing facility (MSF) rate now stands at 6.25 per cent, down from 6.5 per cent.

       The MPC has also adopted an "accommodative" policy stance. Retail inflation for February 2025 was recorded at 3.61 per cent, staying comfortably below the RBI’s 4 per cent target.

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       Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has chaired an India-UK Investor Roundtable in London, attracting around 60 UK investors representing various pension funds, insurance companies, banks and other financial institutions.

       According to the Ministry of Finance, the high-level roundtable on Tuesday evening outlined the priorities of the government for enabling sustained economic growth and investment opportunities, with the policy support that is shaping "New India".

       It highlighted the efforts being made by the ministry to pursue process and governance reforms to reduce compliance burden and ease regulation for facilitating an enabling environment for business and investments.

       India offers a compelling growth opportunity for foreign banks and the government of India is actively encouraging foreign investment in the banking sector, Sitharaman told the gathering.

       With an expanding middle class and strong and stable policy environment, the Union Finance Minister said that India is set to become the sixth-largest Insurance market by 2032 with the expected growth at 7.1 per cent CAGR from 2024-2028 one of the fastest growing insurance markets among G20 countries, the Ministry of Finance readout said.

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       Sitharaman also informed the investors that the Indian securities market is among the first major markets to fully adopt the T+1 settlement, as early as 2023, and India's market capitalisation stands at $4.6 trillion, currently ranked fourth globally.

       The T+1 settlement means that trades are settled one business day after the transaction date.

       The Union Finance Minister spoke at length about India's maiden International Financial Services Centre GIFT-IFSC an offshore zone that is endowed with an enabling ecosystem with considerable tax exemptions, skilled manpower, foreign currency transactions, and strategic geographical location, the ministry noted.

       The gathering was informed that as of March 2025, more than 800 entities across banks, capital markets, insurance, fintech, aircraft leasing, ship leasing, bullion exchange, among others have been registered with the IFSCA.

       Underlining India's digital economy as a significant contributor to its economic growth, accounting for 11.74 per cent of the GDP in 2022-23, Sitharaman informed the participants that India stands third globally in terms of the number of homegrown unicorns.

       She flagged India as home to a strong fintech ecosystem, driven by a large tech-savvy population, supportive government policies, and an innovative startup ecosystem.

       The sector has witnessed a rapid surge in fintechs over the last five years, as is evident from an astounding 87 per cent adoption rate against the global average of 64 per cent and 15 per cent share of global fintech funding.

       The participants shared their views on the reforms pursued by the government and gave feedback and observation on the existing policy framework. They also spoke about their keen interest and commitment for a deeper and broad-based investment collaboration between the UK and India, the ministry said.

       Sitharaman, Union Minister of Finance and Corporate Affairs, is on a visit to the UK for the 13th Ministerial India-UK Economic and Financial Dialogue (EFD) on Wednesday when she will be holding bilateral talks with her British counterpart Chancellor Rachel Reeves.

       In a changing world, this government is accelerating trade deals with the rest of the world to back British business and provide the security working people deserve, Reeves said in a statement ahead of the EFD.

       We are going further, faster to create the best possible conditions for British business by working to reduce barriers to trade. That's why the Business Secretary [Jonathan Reynolds] and I are today meeting with India's Finance Minister, Nirmala Sitharaman, as part of our two nations' Economic and Financial Dialogue as we seek to secure a new trade deal, she said.

       Reeves said that topics of growth and global issues will be on the agenda for the talks, as well as how to unleash potential across various sectors to create jobs, investment and trade opportunities.

       The ongoing India-UK Free Trade Agreement (FTA) negotiations are expected to be in focus during Sitharaman's meeting with Reynolds.

       (Only the headline and picture of this report may have been reworked by the Business Standard staff; the rest of the content is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)

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