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Bombshell new poll predicts Nigel Farage on course to win next general election

2025-05-30 00:00:00.0 每日快报-政治原网页

Reform UK leader Nigel Farage (Image: Getty)

Nigel Farage's Reform UK is on course to win a majority at the next general election, a major new poll suggests. The research by Electoral Calculus puts the insurgent party on 30% which is predicted to give it 362 MPs, majority 74.

The polling company said it is the first time it has recorded a high enough vote share for Reform to get a majority of seats in the House of Commons. Labour is second on 23%, which would give Sir Keir Starmer's party an estimated 136 MPs.

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Our new poll-of-polls now has #ReformUK at 30pc, which is enough for them to get a Westminster majority for the first time. #Labour second, and #Conservatives in fifth place with 22 seats. Details at: https://t.co/NRkt2WUv6J pic.twitter.com/qJv16GDIJ4

— Electoral Calculus (@ElectCalculus) May 30, 2025

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Sir Ed Davey's Liberal Democrats are third with 14% and 62 seats.

The SNP would secure 38 MPs with 3%, while Kemi Badenoch's Tories would be left with just 22 seats on 18% of the vote.

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Electoral Calculus said: "After their local council success on May 1, Reform have seen a positive bounce in the polls.

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"If there were a general election tomorrow (and there will not be), then Reform could expect to have an outright majority in the House of Commons and Nigel Farage would be Prime Minister.

"This is the first time that the polls have indicated that Reform could form a government on its own. The Conservatives would be the fifth largest party at Westminster behind the Liberal Democrats and the SNP."

It comes as Reform, which currently has five MPs, has been riding high in national opinion polls following its success in the local elections earlier this month.

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