KUALA LUMPUR: Air passenger traffic is set to recover in the fourth quarter of this year mainly due to the easing of travel restrictions and reopening of international borders following the rapid vaccination rollout, said the Malaysian Aviation Commission (Mavcom).

       In a statement, Mavcom said total air passenger traffic this year is estimated to be closer to its forecast best-case scenario of 6.9 to 7.8 million passengers.

       “Passenger traffic has shown early signs of recovery, growing by 56.6% month-on-month (m-o-m) and 190.2% m-o-m in September and October 2021, respectively.

       “This was 5.3% and 14.9% of the passenger traffic level recorded in the same months in 2019,” said the commission.

       For 2022, Mavcom estimates Malaysia’s air passenger traffic to increase by between 316% and 525% year-on-year (y-o-y), translating to 32.6 to 49 million passengers, with a best-case scenario of 39.3 to 41.6 million passengers.

       This marks a 30% to 45% recovery from the 2019 air passenger traffic level.

       Malaysia’s air cargo volume in terms of total freight tonne kilometre (FTK) recorded a strong growth of 19.7% y-o-y in the third quarter of 2021 (third quarter of 2020: 22.7% drop y-o-y).

       Passenger traffic in 2022 is expected to be driven by flights to the domestic and Asean markets.

       Based on the airlines’ schedule data as of November 2021, 47.5% of their capacity are planned to be deployed for the domestic routes, 31.5% for the Asean routes and 20.9% for the non-Asean international routes.

       “The pent-up demand to travel and the accumulated savings made during the pandemic would be the key drivers to support the passenger traffic growth in 2022,” said the commission.

       Also, the development of travel bubbles has shown a positive impact on the tourism and aviation industries.

       The Langkawi domestic travel bubble – which began on Sept 16, 2021 – had caused a significant increase of 2,411% and 261.4% m-o-m in domestic air passengers in September and October, respectively.

       The reopening of Langkawi’s borders to international travellers starting November 15, 2021 is expected to increase international passenger traffic.

       In addition, the government is in discussions with several countries to reopen mutual borders.

       Malaysia began its first designated vaccinated travel lane to Singapore on Nov 29, 2021.

       Meanwhile, Malaysia’s air cargo volume in terms of total freight tonne kilometre (FTK) recorded a strong growth of 19.7% y-o-y in the third quarter of 2021 (third quarter of 2020: 22.7% drop y-o-y).

       Mavcom expects the demand for air cargo to remain resilient over the remainder of 2021 and in 2022.

       For 2022, the commission expects the air cargo traffic to grow by between 3.9% and 6.7% y-o-y, which translates to 20.8 billion to 21.6 billion FTK.

       Malaysia’s FTK in 2020 was 15.8 billion (2019: 20.2 billion).

       The growth is supported by the progress of vaccination, the strong expansion for e-commerce, electrical and electronics, as well as strong demand from the country’s main trading partners such as the United Kingdom and the United States.