There are growing macroeconomics risks in the Asia-Pacific or Apac region with the Russian invasion on Ukraine even though direct trade and financial links are limited.
The net effect include commodity price and supply interruptions fuelling inflation; financial, economic and business disruption; as well as cyber risk.
The surge in energy prices and constrained access to key commodities will have direct implications on autos, oil and gas, and transportation while some others will benefit from the higher prices and trade diversion, says Moody’s Investors Service.
Russia and Ukraine’s importance in specialty metals and gasses will have indirect effects on companies involved in the production of semiconductors, electronics, autos and electric vehicle batteries in terms of the higher prices of nickel, palladium and aluminum, it says.
Market volatility and currency depreciation in the event of a prolonged military conflict will hurt the credit quality of sovereigns and speculative-grade companies which have greater dependence on foreign-currency commercial funding and high near-term refinancing needs.
A protracted crisis and sanctions could reshape geopolitical relations in the region, while the diversion of trade could result in a permanent reconfiguration of supply chains, according to Moody’s Investor service.
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