Nicola Sturgeon’s vaccine passport scheme has led to only an extremely small rise in young Scots getting their jabs and vaccination rates remain “similar” to England’s, her government’s own assessment has admitted ahead of her decision next week on extending it.
A Scottish government evidence paper, published late on Friday afternoon, found that the scheme was only “likely” to have contributed to “relatively slight” rise in vaccination rates, despite that being Ms Sturgeon’s main justification for the policy.
It admitted that the vaccination uptake among young people aged 18 to 29 in Scotland between September 1 – when the scheme was announced – and November 16 was almost identical to that in England, where passports have not been introduced.
The proportion of young Scots who had received their first dose rose by only four percentage points between the two dates, while in England it increased by three points.
Meanwhile, the proportion who received their second doses actually rose by more in England, 16.5 per cent, than it did in Scotland, 16.2 per cent.
The paper concluded: “Evidence from comparison with other UK nations suggests that there has been a relatively slight impact on uptake of vaccination since the scheme was introduced in Scotland” on October 1.
The report admitted that extending the scheme to other hospitality and leisure premises, as Ms Sturgeon proposes, would cost businesses to implement.
Employing and training more staff, and supplying hardware to scan the passports, were highlighted as potential cost factors, alongside a loss in revenue from cancelled tickets to events and customers choosing to go somewhere a passport is not required.
However, the paper then pivoted away from increasing vaccination rates as the Scottish Government’s justification for the policy, arguing that it was preferable to the return of restrictions or premises closing during a new lockdown.
In another new justification, it argued that extending it to other premises “may show the public that the pandemic is ‘still with us’, despite the lifting of most major restrictions at the end of the summer”.
The scheme, which requires people to prove they have been double jabbed to gain access to certain premises, has so far operated in nightclubs and large events.
Ms Sturgeon is to announce next Tuesday whether it will be extended to indoor cinemas, theatres “and some licensed and hospitality premises” from December 6, but she has refused to provide any further details on the types of firms which would be targeted.
Her government is also examining the prospect of allowing affected premises to accept evidence of a negative test result instead of a vaccine passport from customers who had not been double-jabbed.
Murdo Fraser, the Scottish Tories’ shadow Covid recovery secretary, said that the report failed to provide any “concrete proof of the scheme’s effectiveness” while “the devastating impact on businesses is all too clear”.
He said: “The fact that this lukewarm report is the best the SNP could conjure up in support of this shambolic policy, should tell you all you need to know. The SNP’s vaccine passport scheme has been a mistake from day one, and this evidence paper offers no convincing grounds for its extension.”
Although there was little difference in vaccination rates north and south of the Border between September 1 and November 15, the report argued that Scotland’s coverage started from a slightly higher baseline “so this represents important progress as the vaccination coverage reaches an upper plateau”.
The report claimed the scheme may provide a “more sustainable basis” for businesses to “operate safely in the long run”.
Unveiling the paper, John Swinney, the Deputy First Minister, insisted that the scheme was “working well”, adding: “We want businesses to remain open throughout the Christmas period so it is sensible to consider options available to expand Covid certification.
“We will continue to consult with hospitality industry representatives and will set out our proposed approach next week.”