Russian president Vladimir Putin dispatched more than 130,000 soldiers to the country’s border with Ukraine this winter and appears to be finally making good on his threat to invade.
Mr Putin and his security council moved to formally recognised two eastern Ukrainian regions held by pro-Russian separatist groups as independent states on Monday, giving Russia a pretext to send troops across the border while arguing that it is only doing so to protect the breakaway regions as fellow allies against Kiev.
The decision to recognise the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) and Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR), which first declared independence in May 2014 and have been engaged in bloody conflict ever since, came after a direct appeal for military and financial aid from their respective leaders, Denis Pushilin and Leonid Pasechnik.
Russia has previously denied accusations from Ukraine and Nato that it had been helping to arm and fund the rebels in a fight that has cost more than 14,000 lives.
The international community immediately hit out at Russia’s latest chess move, with the United Nations Security Council expressing “great concern”.
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Vassily Nebenzia, the Russian ambassador to the UN, insisted there would be no “new bloodbath” in eastern Ukraine but warned the West to “think twice” before making matters worse.
The UK has already announced sanctions against five Russian banks and three wealthy plutocrats, while German chancellor Olaf Scholz has said regulatory approval for the recently-completely Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline from Russia to Germany will be “reassessed” in light of the situation.
The escalation means that the frantic diplomatic efforts of the Western allies to find a peaceful solution to the tensions since the New Year have come to nothing.
US secretary of state Antony Blinken, in particular, has worked hard to defuse the situation, urging Russia to avoid a return to Cold War-era hostilities as he held numerous talks with his Russian counterparts, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky and other European leaders.
UK foreign secretary Liz Truss, French president Emmanuel Macron and Mr Scholz have all in turn visited Moscow on the same mission but apparently to no avail.
US president Joe Biden and British prime minister Boris Johnson have meanwhile repeatedly cautioned Mr Putin against making a “gigantic mistake” by attacking its neighbour, with the American warning: “There would be enormous consequences if he were to go in and invade... for Russia, not only in terms of economic consequences and political consequences but enormous consequences worldwide.”
Mr Johnson likewise urged the Russian president not to follow the “path of bloodshed and destruction” during a speech to the House of Commons.
Behind all of this Mr Putin’s fierce opposition to Ukraine joining Nato in search of greater protection.
He is believed to desire the return of former Soviet satellite states like Ukraine, Georgia and perhaps Belarus, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia to the embrace of what he still considers to be their motherland, lamenting their independence since the collapse of the USSR in 1989.
The Kremlin leader previously annexed the Crimean Peninsula in 2014 in response to Ukraine voting out his ally Viktor Yanukovych, shrugging off the protests and international condemnation that followed.
It appears Russia really is prepared to start a war on its own doorstep and risk international pariah status to achieve Mr Putin’s desired reunificaiton, but the extent to which the US and Europe’s major powers will be prepared to shield a state that it not a member of their military alliance, be that by supplying troops or shipments of artillery, weapons and armoured vehicles or leaving its punishment at sanctions, is less certain.
Here are two maps to explain Ukraine’s frought situation.
The first shows its borders within continental Europe.
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The second details the placement of its cities in relation to the buildup of Russian troops, tanks, armoured vehicles and artillery units, which are currently clustered around the eastern front surrounding the Donbas region of Ukraine where Donetsk and Luhansk are situated.
The Russian military also has a heavy presence in the Crimea and naval forces lurking in the Black Sea.
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Adding to the gravity of the situation for Ukraine is the significant gulf in military strength between the two combatants.
While Ukraine has under 250,000 troops and is looking to add a further 130,000 to its ranks, Russia has almost a million soldiers at its disposal. It also has much more sophisticated and abundant military hardware.
This infographic, created for The Independent by statistics agency Statista, shows the relative military strength of Ukraine and Russia
(Statista/The Independent)
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Speaking of the disparity between the two armies, Vadym Prystaiko, Ukraine’s ambassador to the UK, said it is unfortunate that his country is not part of Nato.
“We are not part of this family and we are facing the biggest army in Europe by ourselves,” he said.