Sir Keir Starmer's Labour Party currently has a majority of 174 after July's General Election (Image: House of Commons)
Labour’s massive majority could be wiped out should a general election be held now amid turmoil for Sir Keir Starmer’s Government, a bombshell poll has predicted.
The party romped to a thumping 174-seat majority in July, winning 251 new constituencies, while the Conservatives slumped to their worst result in history with just 121 seats.
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The size of Labour’s landslide led many to believe the party would be in power for a generation, even though its vote share was just 1.6% higher than 2019.
But following a series of controversies such as scrapping winter fuel payments for most pensioners, an Electoral Calculus survey has predicted Labour would lose 100 seats if a national poll were to be held now.
Its forecast said Labour would end up with 311 seats – 15 short of a majority and virtually neck-and-neck with the Conservatives in terms of share of the vote, with 27.6% and 26.9% respectively.
Our new monthly poll-of-polls has #Labour's lead over the #Conservatives shrunk to one percent, leading to a predicted loss of Labour's majority if there were a election tomorrow. Details: https://t.co/NRkt2WUv6J pic.twitter.com/fwppdPv4cE
— Electoral Calculus (@ElectCalculus) November 29, 2024
Labour would still easily be the largest party, it said, with the Tories predicted to get 207 and the Liberal Democrats falling slightly from 72 currently to 68.
Under the prediction, released at the end of November, Nigel Farage’s Reform UK would more than double its number of seats from five to 12 and increase its vote share from 14.7% to 19.5%.
The SNP would also gain five seats, according to the model, ending up with 16.
“Labour’s poll lead over the Conservatives has dwindled down to 1%, according to the recent polls,” said Electoral Calculus.
“That has reduced so much that Labour would no longer have a majority in the House of Commons if there were an imminent election.
“Reform are the main gainers in terms of votes, but the Conservatives would do better in terms of seats.”
Sir Keir and Labour have been repeatedly slammed for their decisions. The cutting of the universal ￡300 winter fuel payment has been described as “cruel”, especially given rising energy bills.
However, the PM and Chancellor Rachel Reeves have said the tough decisions are necessary, blaming a ￡22billion black hole left behind by the Conservatives.
Sir Keir was also roundly criticised for accepting freebies, including thousands of pounds of clothing and multiple pairs of glasses from millionaire Labour donor Lord Waheed Alli.
The Prime Minister later faced pressure after Louise Haigh quit as transport secretary following revelations that she was convicted of misleading police about a stolen phone before she became an MP.
The Prime Minister is seemingly more unpopular than ever after an Opinium survey put his net approval rating at -32%.
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?????? New polling with @ObserverUK
Keir Starmer has seen an 8 point drop in his net approval rating after a significant uptick in the number disapproving of his performance.
22% approve of his performance vs. 54% who disapprove. This gives Starmer a net rating of -32%. pic.twitter.com/J33nMnwflP
— Opinium (@OpiniumResearch) November 30, 2024
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The pollster said there was a “significant uptick in the number disapproving of his performance” after a month in which farmers protested against “unfair” inheritance tax changes.
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Later this week, the Labour leader will make a big speech dubbed a “plan for change”, which will outline a major reset for the Government.
Sir Keir said: “This plan for change is the most ambitious yet honest programme for government in a generation.
“Mission-led government does not mean picking milestones because they are easy or will happen anyway. It means relentlessly driving real improvements in the lives of working people.”