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Redistricting arms race: These are the states in addition to Texas and California where parties could redraw maps
2025-08-27 00:00:00.0     ABC新闻-政治新闻     原网页

       As Texas Republicans prepare to approve and adopt new congressional maps at the urging of President Donald Trump, and Democrats aim to respond in California, several other states could follow suit.

       Republicans in Indiana, Missouri, and Florida have openly discussed the possibility of reworking their maps ahead of the 2026 midterms, while Democratic governors in Illinois, New York, and Maryland have also floated doing the same.

       Indiana, which has two Democratic seats, appears to be the furthest along, as Vice President JD Vance has met with Gov. Mike Braun, R-Indiana, and state lawmakers on the issue.

       A demostrator speaks during a protest on the floor of the Capitol rotunda at the Texas State Capitol in Austin, Texas, August 20, 2025.

       Sergio Flores/Reuters

       ABC News has reviewed the process in states across the country and identified some of the most likely to take up redistricting on their own. Each state has their own rules governing redistricting, and laws on the books dictating how to do so.

       Both parties take part in gerrymandering -- drawing up state congressional maps for partisan gain. Some states have independent and nonpartisan commissions established by state legislators that are tasked with drawing up maps.

       The bottom line: Republicans have more opportunities across the map to gerrymander House districts than Democrats. In most states where Democrats are in control of the statehouse and governor's mansion, there are legal and constitutional barriers to revisiting their maps in the middle of the decade as a result of previous efforts to install independent commissions and, in some cases, prior state court rulings.

       

       MORE: California Supreme Court denies GOP request for hold on Dem-pushed redistricting legislation

       

       Current House makeup: 219 Republicans, 212 Democrats, 4 vacancies (3 Democrat-held, 1 GOP-held)

       With all seats filled, Republicans would have a 220-215 House majority. Democrats would have to net three seats with the current map to win back control of the House in 2026.

       Texas: Republicans on track to approve new map

       Current makeup: 25-13 Republicans.

       Possible makeup after redistricting: 30-8 Republican, +5 GOP.

       A proposed map from Texas Republicans would flip five districts red by merging Democratic seats in the Houston, Austin, and Dallas-Fort Worth areas to form new Republican-leaning seats and by making two Rio Grande Valley districts currently held by Democrats more competitive.

       The map does not appear to significantly weaken any GOP-held seats but would rely on the durability of Hispanic support for Republicans in 2024 to carry into the midterms next year.

       Despite leaving the state for two weeks, Democrats failed to stop the legislature from taking up the map, and the state Senate could send it to Gov. Greg Abbott's desk for his approval as soon as Thursday. Democrats are also expected to challenge it in court if adopted.

       Protesters gather in the rotunda outside the House Chamber at the Texas Capitol as lawmakers debate a redrawn U.S. congressional map in Texas during a special session, Aug. 20, 2025, in Austin, Texas.

       Eric Gay/AP

       California: Dems vow to 'fight fire with fire'

       Current makeup: 43-9 Democrats.

       Possible makeup after redistricting/special election: 48-4, Democrat, +5 Democrat.

       The California Senate and State Assembly are considering a package of bills this week pushed by Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom that would tee up a special election this fall on a constitutional amendment that would replace the current House map for the remainder of the decade—freezing the independent commission's work for a partisan map that would net Democrats five seats.

       The new map would shore up five Democrat-held seats by giving them more reliably blue slices of the state. It would also alter five Republican-held seats to make them easier for Democrats to flip.

       

       MORE: California Republicans targeted by redistricting slam effort as 'naked politics'

       

       Because the commission was enshrined in the state constitution, voters need to approve the map changes, teeing up a messy and costly ballot initiative fight that will flood television and radio airwaves. It could be a challenge: Voters approved this new system overwhelmingly in the past, and depending on how California voters are polled, independent redistricting remains popular. Former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and former U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, both Republicans, have come out against the effort and could mobilize support against Newsom's plans.

       Ohio: Old map sunsets in 2026.

       Current makeup: 10-5 Republicans.

       Ohio's current House map, drawn up by the GOP-led redistricting commission, sunsets in 2026, giving Republicans another opportunity to draw new districts and consider a new map this fall.

       Republicans have floated plans for a new map that could target Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur, the longest-serving woman in the history of Congress, who represents a district carried by Trump. Rep. Emilia Sykes, a Democrat who represents the Akron area, also narrowly won reelection.

       Other states considering map changes:

       Indiana

       Current: 7-2 Republicans.

       A demostrator speaks during a protest on the floor of the Capitol rotunda at the Texas State Capitol in Austin, Texas, August 20, 2025.

       Sergio Flores/Reuters

       Republicans could gain another seat by splitting up Democratic Rep. Frank Mrvan's district in the northwest corner of the state, and maybe two by splitting up Rep. Andre Carson's Indianapolis-based district. Mrvan narrowly won his seat in 2024, and Trump nearly carried it as well.

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       The state does not explicitly prohibit mid-decade redistricting, but Gov. Mike Braun would have to call a special session for the legislature to remake the map. Vice President JD Vance and the White House have pressured Indiana Republicans to take up the map. Trump may also be pressuring Republicans to carve up the map by withholding federal resources, according to Puck.

       Missouri

       Current: 6-2 Republicans.

       Trump has posted on social media about pursuing redistricting in Missouri. State law does not prohibit mid-decade redistricting, though GOP Gov. Mike Kehoe has been noncommittal about a new map. A spokesperson for Kehoe did not respond to an ABC request for comment on Trump's post appearing to celebrate the possibility of redistricting.

       Republicans could consider flipping the 5th District, currently held by Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver. In 2022, infighting erupted within the GOP over whether to pursue this 7-1 map, which would require splintering Kansas City voters into neighboring rural districts, and the legislature ultimately pushed forward the existing 6-2 map amid concerns that the change could backfire and make several GOP-held districts more competitive.

       Florida

       Current: 20-8 Republicans.

       Gov. Ron DeSantis has suggested Florida can join the fray and become the latest GOP state to redo its congressional maps. He's argued that the state's districts are "malapportioned" and that the state was undercounted in the last census, although it's not clear that it could be awarded a new seat before a new census. State leaders have also said they will set up a redistricting committee.

       At the same time, it's unclear how many more seats Republicans could pick up. The current map already favors Republicans 20-8. Legal challenges to Republican-drawn maps could cite Florida's 2010 constitutional amendment forbidding partisan gerrymandering. The State Supreme Court ruled in July to uphold the state's 2021 map, which eliminated former Democratic Rep. Al Lawson's majority-Black district and split it up among three Republican districts.

       Illinois

       Current makeup: 14-3 Democrats.

       Illinois Democratic Gov. JB Pritzker has said he would consider responding to Republicans in Texas in kind, and there's nothing in the state constitution that would prevent him from doing so.

       But Democrats already have an iron grip on their state's map thanks to a statehouse supermajority, and it would be hard for the party to draw out more than one Republican member without severely weakening any Democrat-held seats.

       New York

       Current makeup: 19-7 Democrats.

       Possible makeup after redistricting: 23-3 Democrat, +3-4 Democratic* (unlikely before 2026.)

       Despite threats from Gov. Kathy Hochul, New York Democrats are limited by state law in what they can do in the near term to counter changes in Texas.

       An independent commission has the authority to draw maps -- though the state legislature can accept, reject or modify its proposals. New York state law prohibits partisan gerrymandering and mid-decade changes except in the case of court orders. The current maps, which led to 19 of the state's 26 congressional districts to go to Democrats, were redrawn in 2024 after a prolonged legal battle.

       Democrats introduced a bill in the state legislature to allow New York to redraw maps mid-decade if another state does so, but this constitutional amendment would have to pass the legislature twice before going in front of voters, making 2028 the earliest it could go into effect.

       The only options for Democrats ahead of 2026 are to legally challenge their own 2024 map, prompting redrawing via another court order, or to draw new maps regardless, which would likely be challenged in court.

       On Wednesday, Hochul said New York would respond to Texas' new map, but did not say how Democrats would do so.

       "In New York, we'll confront Trump's legal insurrection head-on. We'll meet him on the same field and beat him at his own game," she said.

       Maryland

       Current: 7-1 Democrats

       Maryland Gov. Wes Moore has been less enthusiastic about the prospect of Democrats combating Republican efforts with their own gerrymandering.

       Moore didn't dismiss the possibility of redistricting but also emphasized to ABC News that he believes in "fair elections." The state legislature is tasked with drawing congressional districts, and there is no prohibition against a mid-decade redistricting -- leaving the door open for Democrats to attempt to redraw the maps ahead of the midterms.

       State House Majority Leader David Moon introduced a bill that would force Maryland to redraw its lines if another state proposed a new map mid-decade. That said, Democrats only have the opportunity to pick up one seat, and in 2022, an 8-0 map was struck down by a state court as an illegal partisan gerrymander.

       


标签:政治
关键词: mid-decade     Republicans     Democrats     Texas Republicans     redistricting     districts     new congressional maps     seats     legislature    
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