Whitehall sign in Westminster, London, where thousands of civil servants work (Image: Getty)
Public sector workers will make up almost a fifth of employees by 2030, an economic think tank has suggested.
The share of workers employed by the Government would increase from just over 16% in 2018 to 18.3% by 2030, said the Resolution Foundation.
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It warned that ministers’ decisions on public sector pay would have more of an impact on living standards as a result.
It said: "The Government's approach to [pay] negotiations will become all the more important.”
An increase in state workers is likely to be fuelled by a rise in the number of people working in health and social care.
They make up 37% of government workers, up from 29% in 2000.
The Resolution Foundation said the future rise in public sector employment would be driven by the increased government spending and investment announced in Rachel Reeves's Budget.
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There are now 513,000 full-time civil servants, up 121,000 on 2015 levels.
Day-to-day public service spending is due to be 4.8% higher this year than last, representing the largest real-terms increase since the 2000 spending review.
Much of the extra money is because of the health and education sectors, leading to a significant increase in the number of staff employed.
Public sector staff are earning 6% more than private sector workers after Sir Keir Starmer handed out inflation-busting pay rises to teachers, nurses, doctors and senior civil servants this year.
At the start of 2024, public sector employees were paid 2% more than those in the private sector on average, the research suggested.
The pay gap could continue to grow as departments have recommended a 2.8% raise next year, slightly above the expected average inflation rate of 2.6%.
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But unions have reacted with anger to those proposals, meaning the possibility of future strike action looms.
The National Education Union said it was “putting the Government on notice”, while the Unite union called the offer to NHS staff an “insult”.
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Downing Street has said it was "vital that pay awards are fair for both taxpayers and workers".
The Government added that departments would have to fund 2025-26 and future pay increases from their own budgets.
Speaking earlier this month, the Prime Minister's spokesman said: "For pay awards to go beyond inflation they will have to be met by productivity improvements.”